Intrinsic value of Internet Gold-Golden Lines - IGLD

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$11.00

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$11.00

 
Intrinsic value

$92.04

 
Up/down potential

+737%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IGLD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.29
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,701
  2,755
  2,818
  2,891
  2,972
  3,062
  3,161
  3,269
  3,385
  3,511
  3,646
  3,790
  3,944
  4,107
  4,281
  4,466
  4,662
  4,869
  5,088
  5,319
  5,564
  5,822
  6,094
  6,380
  6,683
  7,001
  7,336
  7,688
  8,059
  8,450
  8,860
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,971
  2,014
  2,064
  2,120
  2,181
  2,249
  2,323
  2,403
  2,489
  2,581
  2,597
  2,703
  2,815
  2,934
  3,061
  3,195
  3,337
  3,487
  3,645
  3,813
  3,990
  4,176
  4,373
  4,580
  4,798
  5,027
  5,269
  5,523
  5,791
  6,072
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,156
  1,971
  2,014
  2,064
  2,120
  2,181
  2,249
  2,323
  2,403
  2,489
  2,581
  2,597
  2,703
  2,815
  2,934
  3,061
  3,195
  3,337
  3,487
  3,645
  3,813
  3,990
  4,176
  4,373
  4,580
  4,798
  5,027
  5,269
  5,523
  5,791
  6,072
Operating income, $m
  544
  784
  804
  827
  852
  881
  912
  946
  982
  1,022
  1,064
  1,193
  1,241
  1,293
  1,347
  1,405
  1,467
  1,532
  1,601
  1,674
  1,751
  1,832
  1,918
  2,008
  2,103
  2,203
  2,308
  2,419
  2,536
  2,659
  2,788
EBITDA, $m
  1,120
  1,331
  1,361
  1,396
  1,435
  1,479
  1,527
  1,579
  1,635
  1,696
  1,761
  1,830
  1,905
  1,984
  2,068
  2,157
  2,252
  2,352
  2,457
  2,569
  2,687
  2,812
  2,943
  3,082
  3,227
  3,381
  3,543
  3,713
  3,892
  4,081
  4,279
Interest expense (income), $m
  223
  193
  165
  171
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
  392
  415
  439
  464
  490
  518
  548
  579
  611
  646
  682
  720
Earnings before tax, $m
  387
  591
  639
  656
  674
  695
  717
  741
  767
  795
  826
  941
  975
  1,012
  1,051
  1,092
  1,135
  1,181
  1,230
  1,282
  1,336
  1,393
  1,454
  1,518
  1,585
  1,655
  1,730
  1,808
  1,891
  1,977
  2,068
Tax expense, $m
  94
  160
  173
  177
  182
  188
  194
  200
  207
  215
  223
  254
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  319
  332
  346
  361
  376
  393
  410
  428
  447
  467
  488
  510
  534
  558
Net income, $m
  24
  431
  466
  479
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  687
  712
  739
  767
  797
  829
  862
  898
  936
  975
  1,017
  1,061
  1,108
  1,157
  1,208
  1,263
  1,320
  1,380
  1,443
  1,510

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  647
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,062
  5,521
  5,648
  5,793
  5,956
  6,137
  6,335
  6,551
  6,784
  7,036
  7,306
  7,595
  7,903
  8,231
  8,580
  8,950
  9,342
  9,757
  10,196
  10,660
  11,150
  11,667
  12,212
  12,787
  13,392
  14,029
  14,701
  15,407
  16,151
  16,933
  17,756
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,415
  5,521
  5,648
  5,793
  5,956
  6,137
  6,335
  6,551
  6,784
  7,036
  7,306
  7,595
  7,903
  8,231
  8,580
  8,950
  9,342
  9,757
  10,196
  10,660
  11,150
  11,667
  12,212
  12,787
  13,392
  14,029
  14,701
  15,407
  16,151
  16,933
  17,756
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
  0.499
Average production assets, $m
  2,909
  2,967
  3,035
  3,113
  3,201
  3,298
  3,405
  3,520
  3,646
  3,781
  3,926
  4,082
  4,247
  4,424
  4,611
  4,810
  5,021
  5,244
  5,480
  5,729
  5,992
  6,270
  6,563
  6,872
  7,197
  7,540
  7,900
  8,280
  8,680
  9,100
  9,542
Working capital, $m
  -94
  -143
  -147
  -150
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -197
  -205
  -214
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -289
  -303
  -317
  -332
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -461
Total debt, $m
  4,175
  3,057
  3,171
  3,302
  3,449
  3,611
  3,789
  3,984
  4,194
  4,420
  4,663
  4,923
  5,201
  5,496
  5,810
  6,143
  6,496
  6,870
  7,265
  7,682
  8,123
  8,588
  9,079
  9,596
  10,141
  10,714
  11,319
  11,954
  12,624
  13,328
  14,068
Total liabilities, $m
  6,087
  4,969
  5,083
  5,214
  5,361
  5,523
  5,701
  5,896
  6,106
  6,332
  6,575
  6,835
  7,113
  7,408
  7,722
  8,055
  8,408
  8,782
  9,177
  9,594
  10,035
  10,500
  10,991
  11,508
  12,053
  12,626
  13,231
  13,866
  14,536
  15,240
  15,980
Total equity, $m
  -25
  552
  565
  579
  596
  614
  633
  655
  678
  704
  731
  759
  790
  823
  858
  895
  934
  976
  1,020
  1,066
  1,115
  1,167
  1,221
  1,279
  1,339
  1,403
  1,470
  1,541
  1,615
  1,693
  1,776
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,062
  5,521
  5,648
  5,793
  5,957
  6,137
  6,334
  6,551
  6,784
  7,036
  7,306
  7,594
  7,903
  8,231
  8,580
  8,950
  9,342
  9,758
  10,197
  10,660
  11,150
  11,667
  12,212
  12,787
  13,392
  14,029
  14,701
  15,407
  16,151
  16,933
  17,756
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -167.000
  5.540
  5.610
  5.700
  5.790
  5.880
  5.980
  6.080
  6.180
  6.280
  6.380
  6.480
  6.580
  6.680
  6.770
  6.860
  6.950
  7.040
  7.120
  7.210
  7.290
  7.360
  7.430
  7.500
  7.570
  7.640
  7.700
  7.760
  7.820
  7.870
  7.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.124
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  431
  466
  479
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  687
  712
  739
  767
  797
  829
  862
  898
  936
  975
  1,017
  1,061
  1,108
  1,157
  1,208
  1,263
  1,320
  1,380
  1,443
  1,510
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  576
  547
  557
  569
  583
  598
  615
  633
  653
  674
  696
  638
  664
  691
  720
  752
  784
  819
  856
  895
  936
  980
  1,025
  1,074
  1,125
  1,178
  1,234
  1,294
  1,356
  1,422
  1,491
Funds from operations, $m
  980
  978
  1,024
  1,048
  1,075
  1,105
  1,138
  1,174
  1,213
  1,254
  1,299
  1,325
  1,375
  1,430
  1,487
  1,548
  1,613
  1,682
  1,754
  1,831
  1,912
  1,997
  2,087
  2,182
  2,281
  2,387
  2,497
  2,614
  2,736
  2,865
  3,001
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  986
  1,238
  1,027
  1,052
  1,079
  1,110
  1,143
  1,180
  1,219
  1,261
  1,306
  1,332
  1,383
  1,438
  1,496
  1,558
  1,623
  1,693
  1,766
  1,843
  1,924
  2,010
  2,101
  2,196
  2,297
  2,403
  2,515
  2,632
  2,756
  2,886
  3,022
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -454
  -464
  -474
  -486
  -500
  -515
  -532
  -550
  -570
  -591
  -613
  -638
  -664
  -691
  -720
  -752
  -784
  -819
  -856
  -895
  -936
  -980
  -1,025
  -1,074
  -1,125
  -1,178
  -1,234
  -1,294
  -1,356
  -1,422
New CAPEX, $m
  -442
  -59
  -68
  -78
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -116
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -223
  -236
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -400
  -420
  -442
Cash from investing activities, $m
  103
  -513
  -532
  -552
  -574
  -597
  -621
  -648
  -676
  -705
  -736
  -768
  -804
  -840
  -878
  -919
  -963
  -1,007
  -1,055
  -1,105
  -1,158
  -1,214
  -1,273
  -1,334
  -1,399
  -1,468
  -1,539
  -1,614
  -1,694
  -1,776
  -1,864
Free cash flow, $m
  1,089
  725
  495
  499
  505
  513
  522
  532
  543
  556
  570
  563
  580
  598
  618
  639
  661
  685
  710
  737
  766
  796
  828
  862
  898
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,062
  1,109
  1,158
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -365
  -518
  114
  131
  147
  163
  178
  194
  210
  226
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  333
  353
  374
  395
  418
  441
  465
  491
  517
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
  704
  740
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  370
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,119
  -148
  114
  131
  147
  163
  178
  194
  210
  226
  243
  260
  277
  295
  314
  333
  353
  374
  395
  418
  441
  465
  491
  517
  545
  574
  604
  636
  669
  704
  740
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -31
  207
  609
  630
  652
  675
  700
  726
  753
  782
  813
  823
  857
  894
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,059
  1,105
  1,155
  1,207
  1,261
  1,319
  1,379
  1,443
  1,510
  1,580
  1,654
  1,731
  1,813
  1,899
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -24
  -624
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  597
  616
  636
  657
  680
  704
  730
  757
  786
  794
  827
  861
  897
  935
  975
  1,017
  1,062
  1,108
  1,158
  1,210
  1,264
  1,322
  1,382
  1,446
  1,513
  1,583
  1,657
  1,735
  1,816
Discount rate, %
 
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  484
  443
  402
  360
  320
  280
  242
  207
  174
  140
  114
  91
  72
  55
  41
  30
  22
  15
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Internet Gold - Golden Lines Ltd. provides various telecommunications services in Israel. It operates through Fixed Line Domestic Communications; Cellular Communications; International Communications, Internet Services and Network End Point; and Multichannel Television segments. The company offers domestic fixed-line, cellular and international communication, Internet, multi-channel television, television and radio broadcasting, satellite broadcasting, and customer call center services. It also provides communications infrastructure maintenance and development, as well as communications services to other communications providers; and engages in the supply and maintenance of equipment on customer premises. The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Ramat Gan, Israel. Internet Gold - Golden Lines Ltd. is a subsidiary of Eurocom Communications Ltd.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Internet Gold-Golden Lines (IGLD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.8
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 28.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -14300%
Total Debt to Equity -16700%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity -64.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 43.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.9%
Operating Margin 20.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 24.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

IGLD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IGLD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2701 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Internet Gold-Golden Lines. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Internet Gold-Golden Lines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IGLD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for IGLD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Internet Gold-Golden Lines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Internet Gold-Golden Lines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IGLD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IGLD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Internet Gold-Golden Lines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Internet Gold-Golden Lines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IGLD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IGLD are equal to 107.7%.

Life of production assets of 6.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Internet Gold-Golden Lines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IGLD is equal to -5.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-25 million for Internet Gold-Golden Lines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.13 million for Internet Gold-Golden Lines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Internet Gold-Golden Lines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.


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Stock chart of IGLD Financial statements of IGLD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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