Intrinsic value of Information Services Group - III

Previous Close

$4.10

  Intrinsic Value

$6.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+49%

  Value-price divergence*

+45%

Previous close

$4.10

 
Intrinsic value

$6.11

 
Up/down potential

+49%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+45%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of III stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.83
  13.30
  12.47
  11.72
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  217
  246
  277
  309
  343
  379
  416
  456
  496
  539
  583
  629
  677
  727
  779
  832
  888
  946
  1,007
  1,070
  1,135
  1,203
  1,274
  1,349
  1,426
  1,507
  1,591
  1,679
  1,771
  1,867
  1,968
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  235
  263
  293
  324
  357
  391
  427
  465
  504
  545
  579
  623
  668
  716
  765
  817
  870
  926
  983
  1,044
  1,106
  1,172
  1,240
  1,311
  1,385
  1,463
  1,544
  1,628
  1,717
  1,809
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  219
  235
  263
  293
  324
  357
  391
  427
  465
  504
  545
  579
  623
  668
  716
  765
  817
  870
  926
  983
  1,044
  1,106
  1,172
  1,240
  1,311
  1,385
  1,463
  1,544
  1,628
  1,717
  1,809
Operating income, $m
  -3
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
EBITDA, $m
  5
  23
  25
  28
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  23
  25
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Net income, $m
  -7
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  235
  228
  256
  286
  318
  351
  386
  422
  460
  499
  540
  583
  627
  673
  721
  771
  822
  876
  932
  990
  1,051
  1,114
  1,180
  1,249
  1,320
  1,395
  1,473
  1,555
  1,640
  1,729
  1,822
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  201
  228
  256
  286
  318
  351
  386
  422
  460
  499
  540
  583
  627
  673
  721
  771
  822
  876
  932
  990
  1,051
  1,114
  1,180
  1,249
  1,320
  1,395
  1,473
  1,555
  1,640
  1,729
  1,822
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.080
  1.079
  1.082
  1.080
  1.079
  1.080
  1.078
  1.081
  1.078
  1.080
  1.080
  1.079
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.079
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.081
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
Average production assets, $m
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  94
  100
  107
  115
  122
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  228
  241
  254
Working capital, $m
  54
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
  201
  213
  224
  236
Total debt, $m
  122
  139
  163
  189
  216
  244
  274
  305
  338
  371
  406
  443
  481
  520
  561
  604
  648
  694
  742
  792
  844
  898
  954
  1,013
  1,074
  1,138
  1,205
  1,275
  1,348
  1,424
  1,504
Total liabilities, $m
  178
  195
  219
  245
  272
  300
  330
  361
  394
  427
  462
  499
  537
  576
  617
  660
  704
  750
  798
  848
  900
  954
  1,010
  1,069
  1,130
  1,194
  1,261
  1,331
  1,404
  1,480
  1,560
Total equity, $m
  57
  33
  37
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  235
  228
  256
  286
  318
  351
  386
  422
  460
  499
  540
  583
  627
  673
  721
  771
  822
  876
  932
  991
  1,051
  1,114
  1,180
  1,249
  1,320
  1,395
  1,473
  1,555
  1,640
  1,729
  1,822
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.140
  4.240
  4.430
  4.580
  4.720
  4.840
  4.940
  5.020
  5.100
  5.170
  5.220
  5.280
  5.320
  5.370
  5.410
  5.440
  5.470
  5.500
  5.530
  5.550
  5.570
  5.600
  5.610
  5.630
  5.650
  5.670
  5.680
  5.690
  5.710
  5.720
  5.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.114
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -58
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -35
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  67
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  54
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  50
  23
  23
  22
  20
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
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Information Services Group, Inc. is a technology insights, market intelligence and advisory services company. The Company operates in the segment of fact-based sourcing advisory services. It supports private and public sector organizations to transform and optimize their operational environments through research, benchmarking, consulting and managed services with a focus on information technology, business process transformation, program management services and enterprise resource planning. It offers service lines, including research, consulting, managed services, network carrier services, robotic process automation (RPA), outsourcing advisory and provider services. It specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; technology strategy and operations design; change management, and technology research and analysis.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Information Services Group (III)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -24.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 203.5%
Total Debt to Equity 214%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital -5.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity -13.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin 2.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin -0.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Net Profit Margin -3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Effective Tax Rate -20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

III stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the III stock intrinsic value calculation we used $217 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Information Services Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Information Services Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our III stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for III is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Information Services Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Information Services Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of III stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for III stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Information Services Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Information Services Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the III stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for III are equal to 12.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Information Services Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for III is equal to 12%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $57 million for Information Services Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 43.865 million for Information Services Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Information Services Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ISG Index: As-a-Service Sourcing Reaches New Highs in 3Q   [Oct-11-17 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG to Host Webinar on Digital Supplier Management   [Sep-07-17 02:54PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Launches New Research Series on Service Providers   [Aug-08-17 11:39AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG reports 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 11:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ISG Focus Paper Explores 'Irrational Digital Exuberance'   [Jul-07-17 09:33AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG to Host Inaugural ISG Automation Summit   [Jul-05-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Research: Automation and AI Use to Triple by 2019   [Jun-12-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG to Host 2017 Digital Business Summit Series   [May-30-17 12:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Named HRO Today 'Thought Leader of the Year'   [May-10-17 11:47AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 04:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ ISG: RPA Increasing Productivity, Not Job Losses   [May-03-17 10:28AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Report Evaluates FAO Providers Based on Buyer Needs   [Mar-31-17 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Hosts April 4 Webinar on Robotic Process Automation   [Mar-22-17 02:24PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Recognized for Role in Establishing ZF Tech Center   [Mar-14-17 12:34PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG reports 4Q loss   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ ISG Invites Nominations for 2017 ISG Paragon Awards   [Mar-06-17 10:04AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG To Showcase Digital, RPA Leadership at SSON Event   [Mar-03-17 02:47PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Announces Challenge the Future® Award Winners   [Feb-22-17 11:23AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Index: Digital Revolution Fuels 2016 Sourcing Market   [Jan-12-17 03:11PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Launches New Brand Identity and Website   [Jan-05-17 10:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Information Services Group Pays $74 Million for Alsbridge   [Dec-02-16 05:25PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ISG Names Mindtree a Top 15 Sourcing Service Provider   [Nov-23-16 08:10AM  CNW Group]
▶ ISG to Host 2016 Digital Business Summit Series   [Oct-17-16 12:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Launches ISG Automation Index   [Sep-26-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ISG Named Workday Advisory Services Partner   [Sep-07-16 09:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Aegis Named a Top 10 Sourcing Service Provider by ISG   [Aug-17-16 07:35AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of III
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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