Intrinsic value of Illumina - ILMN

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$175.91

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$175.91

 
Intrinsic value

$72.52

 
Up/down potential

-59%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ILMN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 25.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.02
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  2,398
  2,506
  2,620
  2,740
  2,867
  3,001
  3,143
  3,291
  3,448
  3,613
  3,787
  3,969
  4,162
  4,364
  4,576
  4,800
  5,035
  5,282
  5,542
  5,815
  6,102
  6,403
  6,720
  7,052
  7,402
  7,769
  8,155
  8,560
  8,985
  9,432
  9,901
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,811
  1,890
  1,973
  2,061
  2,153
  2,251
  2,354
  2,462
  2,576
  2,697
  2,745
  2,878
  3,018
  3,165
  3,320
  3,482
  3,653
  3,833
  4,022
  4,220
  4,429
  4,648
  4,878
  5,119
  5,373
  5,640
  5,920
  6,214
  6,524
  6,848
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,811
  1,811
  1,890
  1,973
  2,061
  2,153
  2,251
  2,354
  2,462
  2,576
  2,697
  2,745
  2,878
  3,018
  3,165
  3,320
  3,482
  3,653
  3,833
  4,022
  4,220
  4,429
  4,648
  4,878
  5,119
  5,373
  5,640
  5,920
  6,214
  6,524
  6,848
Operating income, $m
  587
  695
  730
  767
  807
  848
  891
  937
  986
  1,036
  1,090
  1,224
  1,283
  1,346
  1,411
  1,480
  1,553
  1,629
  1,709
  1,793
  1,881
  1,974
  2,072
  2,175
  2,282
  2,396
  2,515
  2,639
  2,771
  2,908
  3,053
EBITDA, $m
  728
  847
  886
  927
  970
  1,015
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,281
  1,342
  1,407
  1,476
  1,548
  1,623
  1,703
  1,786
  1,874
  1,966
  2,063
  2,165
  2,272
  2,385
  2,503
  2,627
  2,758
  2,895
  3,039
  3,190
  3,348
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  37
  40
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
Earnings before tax, $m
  561
  658
  690
  724
  760
  797
  836
  878
  922
  968
  1,016
  1,145
  1,199
  1,255
  1,315
  1,377
  1,443
  1,512
  1,585
  1,661
  1,741
  1,825
  1,914
  2,007
  2,104
  2,207
  2,315
  2,428
  2,547
  2,672
  2,803
Tax expense, $m
  133
  178
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  493
  517
  542
  568
  596
  625
  656
  688
  721
  757
Net income, $m
  463
  481
  504
  529
  554
  582
  611
  641
  673
  707
  742
  836
  875
  916
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,157
  1,212
  1,271
  1,332
  1,397
  1,465
  1,536
  1,611
  1,690
  1,772
  1,859
  1,950
  2,046

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,559
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,281
  2,844
  2,974
  3,110
  3,255
  3,407
  3,567
  3,736
  3,914
  4,101
  4,298
  4,505
  4,724
  4,953
  5,195
  5,448
  5,715
  5,996
  6,290
  6,600
  6,926
  7,268
  7,627
  8,005
  8,402
  8,818
  9,256
  9,716
  10,199
  10,706
  11,239
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,722
  2,844
  2,974
  3,110
  3,255
  3,407
  3,567
  3,736
  3,914
  4,101
  4,298
  4,505
  4,724
  4,953
  5,195
  5,448
  5,715
  5,996
  6,290
  6,600
  6,926
  7,268
  7,627
  8,005
  8,402
  8,818
  9,256
  9,716
  10,199
  10,706
  11,239
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
  0.881
Average production assets, $m
  786
  822
  859
  899
  940
  984
  1,031
  1,080
  1,131
  1,185
  1,242
  1,302
  1,365
  1,431
  1,501
  1,574
  1,651
  1,733
  1,818
  1,907
  2,001
  2,100
  2,204
  2,313
  2,428
  2,548
  2,675
  2,808
  2,947
  3,094
  3,248
Working capital, $m
  1,613
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
Total debt, $m
  1,049
  1,141
  1,240
  1,345
  1,455
  1,571
  1,694
  1,823
  1,959
  2,102
  2,253
  2,412
  2,579
  2,754
  2,939
  3,133
  3,337
  3,552
  3,777
  4,014
  4,263
  4,525
  4,800
  5,089
  5,392
  5,711
  6,046
  6,398
  6,767
  7,155
  7,563
Total liabilities, $m
  2,083
  2,176
  2,275
  2,380
  2,490
  2,606
  2,729
  2,858
  2,994
  3,137
  3,288
  3,447
  3,614
  3,789
  3,974
  4,168
  4,372
  4,587
  4,812
  5,049
  5,298
  5,560
  5,835
  6,124
  6,427
  6,746
  7,081
  7,433
  7,802
  8,190
  8,598
Total equity, $m
  2,197
  668
  699
  731
  765
  801
  838
  878
  920
  964
  1,010
  1,059
  1,110
  1,164
  1,221
  1,280
  1,343
  1,409
  1,478
  1,551
  1,628
  1,708
  1,792
  1,881
  1,974
  2,072
  2,175
  2,283
  2,397
  2,516
  2,641
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,280
  2,844
  2,974
  3,111
  3,255
  3,407
  3,567
  3,736
  3,914
  4,101
  4,298
  4,506
  4,724
  4,953
  5,195
  5,448
  5,715
  5,996
  6,290
  6,600
  6,926
  7,268
  7,627
  8,005
  8,401
  8,818
  9,256
  9,716
  10,199
  10,706
  11,239
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.477
  1.710
  1.770
  1.840
  1.900
  1.960
  2.020
  2.080
  2.130
  2.180
  2.230
  2.280
  2.320
  2.370
  2.410
  2.450
  2.480
  2.520
  2.560
  2.590
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.710
  2.730
  2.760
  2.780
  2.800
  2.820
  2.840
  2.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.234
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  463
  481
  504
  529
  554
  582
  611
  641
  673
  707
  742
  836
  875
  916
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,157
  1,212
  1,271
  1,332
  1,397
  1,465
  1,536
  1,611
  1,690
  1,772
  1,859
  1,950
  2,046
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  152
  156
  159
  163
  167
  171
  176
  180
  185
  191
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
Funds from operations, $m
  642
  633
  660
  688
  718
  749
  782
  817
  853
  892
  933
  954
  999
  1,047
  1,096
  1,149
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
  1,453
  1,523
  1,597
  1,675
  1,757
  1,843
  1,933
  2,028
  2,127
  2,232
  2,341
Change in working capital, $m
  -45
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Cash from operations, $m
  687
  801
  657
  685
  715
  746
  779
  813
  850
  888
  929
  950
  995
  1,042
  1,091
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
  1,316
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,590
  1,667
  1,749
  1,834
  1,924
  2,018
  2,117
  2,221
  2,330
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -281
New CAPEX, $m
  -271
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -515
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -309
  -325
  -341
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -415
  -435
Free cash flow, $m
  172
  693
  545
  567
  591
  616
  643
  671
  700
  731
  764
  777
  813
  851
  891
  934
  978
  1,024
  1,073
  1,125
  1,179
  1,236
  1,295
  1,358
  1,424
  1,493
  1,566
  1,642
  1,722
  1,807
  1,895
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -61
  93
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  303
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  408
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -202
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -205
  93
  99
  105
  110
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  176
  185
  194
  204
  215
  226
  237
  249
  262
  275
  289
  303
  319
  335
  352
  369
  388
  408
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -34
  786
  644
  672
  702
  733
  765
  800
  836
  874
  915
  936
  980
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,182
  1,239
  1,299
  1,362
  1,428
  1,497
  1,570
  1,647
  1,727
  1,812
  1,901
  1,994
  2,092
  2,195
  2,303
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -348
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,558
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,315
  614
  640
  668
  697
  728
  760
  794
  830
  868
  887
  929
  973
  1,019
  1,068
  1,119
  1,173
  1,230
  1,289
  1,351
  1,417
  1,486
  1,558
  1,634
  1,714
  1,798
  1,886
  1,978
  2,076
  2,178
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2,219
  562
  557
  550
  540
  528
  514
  497
  477
  455
  421
  396
  370
  342
  314
  284
  255
  226
  198
  172
  147
  123
  102
  83
  67
  52
  40
  31
  23
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing and array-based solutions for genetic analysis. The company’s sequencing by synthesis technology provides researchers with various applications and the ability to sequence mammalian genomes. It also offers arrays for a range of deoxyribonucleic acid and RNA analysis applications, including single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping, copy number variations analysis, gene expression analysis, and methylation analysis, as well as allow for the detection of known genetic markers on a single array. In addition, the company provides various library preparation and sequencing kits to simplify workflows and accelerate analysis; and genome sequencing, genotyping, and non-invasive prenatal testing services. It serves genomic research centers, academic institutions, government laboratories, and hospitals, as well as pharmaceutical, biotechnology, agrigenomics, commercial molecular diagnostic laboratories, and consumer genomics companies. The company markets and distributes its products directly to customers in North America, Europe, Latin America, and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as through life-science distributors. It has collaboration agreements with IBM Watson Health to access genome data interpretation by integrating Watson for genomics into Illumina’s BaseSpace Sequence Hub and tumor sequencing process; and NRGene to develop new molecular breeding tools for cattle to support global food production. Illumina, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Illumina (ILMN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 55.5
Price to Sales 10.7
Price to Book 11.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 61.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 89.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1559
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 47.7%
Total Debt to Equity 47.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Total Capital 15%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Equity 22.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin 29.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Operating Margin 24.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Net Profit Margin 19.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Effective Tax Rate 23.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ILMN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ILMN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2398 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Illumina. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Illumina. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ILMN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ILMN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Illumina, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Illumina.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ILMN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ILMN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Illumina.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Illumina. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ILMN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ILMN are equal to 32.8%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Illumina operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ILMN is equal to 2.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2197 million for Illumina - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 146.121 million for Illumina is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Illumina at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $25.7 billion.


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Stock chart of ILMN Financial statements of ILMN Annual reports of ILMN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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