Intrinsic value of Illumina - ILMN

Previous Close

$330.17

  Intrinsic Value

$97.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

Previous close

$330.17

 
Intrinsic value

$97.02

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ILMN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.02
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  2,398
  3,159
  3,596
  4,061
  4,554
  5,075
  5,622
  6,196
  6,796
  7,423
  8,076
  8,756
  9,463
  10,198
  10,962
  11,756
  12,581
  13,438
  14,330
  15,257
  16,222
  17,226
  18,272
  19,362
  20,498
  21,684
  22,920
  24,211
  25,560
  26,969
  28,442
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,371
  2,686
  3,021
  3,377
  3,752
  4,146
  4,560
  4,992
  5,444
  5,914
  6,310
  6,819
  7,349
  7,899
  8,471
  9,066
  9,684
  10,326
  10,995
  11,690
  12,414
  13,167
  13,953
  14,772
  15,626
  16,517
  17,447
  18,419
  19,435
  20,496
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,811
  2,371
  2,686
  3,021
  3,377
  3,752
  4,146
  4,560
  4,992
  5,444
  5,914
  6,310
  6,819
  7,349
  7,899
  8,471
  9,066
  9,684
  10,326
  10,995
  11,690
  12,414
  13,167
  13,953
  14,772
  15,626
  16,517
  17,447
  18,419
  19,435
  20,496
Operating income, $m
  587
  788
  910
  1,040
  1,178
  1,323
  1,476
  1,636
  1,804
  1,979
  2,162
  2,446
  2,644
  2,849
  3,062
  3,284
  3,515
  3,754
  4,003
  4,262
  4,532
  4,813
  5,105
  5,409
  5,727
  6,058
  6,403
  6,764
  7,141
  7,534
  7,946
EBITDA, $m
  728
  1,090
  1,240
  1,401
  1,571
  1,751
  1,940
  2,138
  2,345
  2,561
  2,786
  3,021
  3,264
  3,518
  3,782
  4,055
  4,340
  4,636
  4,943
  5,263
  5,596
  5,943
  6,303
  6,679
  7,071
  7,480
  7,907
  8,352
  8,818
  9,304
  9,812
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  64
  84
  105
  128
  152
  178
  204
  233
  262
  293
  325
  358
  393
  429
  466
  505
  545
  587
  631
  677
  724
  773
  824
  878
  933
  991
  1,052
  1,115
  1,181
  1,250
Earnings before tax, $m
  561
  724
  826
  935
  1,050
  1,171
  1,299
  1,432
  1,572
  1,717
  1,869
  2,121
  2,286
  2,456
  2,634
  2,818
  3,010
  3,209
  3,416
  3,631
  3,855
  4,089
  4,332
  4,585
  4,849
  5,124
  5,412
  5,712
  6,025
  6,353
  6,696
Tax expense, $m
  133
  196
  223
  252
  283
  316
  351
  387
  424
  464
  505
  573
  617
  663
  711
  761
  813
  866
  922
  980
  1,041
  1,104
  1,170
  1,238
  1,309
  1,384
  1,461
  1,542
  1,627
  1,715
  1,808
Net income, $m
  463
  529
  603
  682
  766
  855
  948
  1,045
  1,147
  1,254
  1,364
  1,549
  1,669
  1,793
  1,923
  2,057
  2,197
  2,342
  2,494
  2,651
  2,814
  2,985
  3,162
  3,347
  3,540
  3,741
  3,951
  4,170
  4,399
  4,638
  4,888

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,559
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,281
  4,431
  5,043
  5,696
  6,388
  7,118
  7,885
  8,690
  9,532
  10,411
  11,327
  12,280
  13,272
  14,303
  15,374
  16,488
  17,645
  18,847
  20,098
  21,398
  22,751
  24,160
  25,627
  27,156
  28,749
  30,412
  32,146
  33,957
  35,848
  37,825
  39,891
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,722
  4,431
  5,043
  5,696
  6,388
  7,118
  7,885
  8,690
  9,532
  10,411
  11,327
  12,280
  13,272
  14,303
  15,374
  16,488
  17,645
  18,847
  20,098
  21,398
  22,751
  24,160
  25,627
  27,156
  28,749
  30,412
  32,146
  33,957
  35,848
  37,825
  39,891
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.881
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
  0.713
Average production assets, $m
  786
  2,072
  2,359
  2,664
  2,988
  3,329
  3,688
  4,065
  4,459
  4,870
  5,298
  5,744
  6,208
  6,690
  7,191
  7,712
  8,253
  8,815
  9,400
  10,009
  10,641
  11,300
  11,987
  12,702
  13,447
  14,224
  15,036
  15,883
  16,767
  17,692
  18,658
Working capital, $m
  1,613
  199
  227
  256
  287
  320
  354
  390
  428
  468
  509
  552
  596
  642
  691
  741
  793
  847
  903
  961
  1,022
  1,085
  1,151
  1,220
  1,291
  1,366
  1,444
  1,525
  1,610
  1,699
  1,792
Total debt, $m
  1,049
  1,551
  1,947
  2,369
  2,817
  3,289
  3,786
  4,307
  4,851
  5,420
  6,012
  6,629
  7,271
  7,938
  8,631
  9,351
  10,100
  10,878
  11,687
  12,529
  13,404
  14,316
  15,265
  16,254
  17,285
  18,360
  19,483
  20,654
  21,878
  23,157
  24,493
Total liabilities, $m
  2,083
  2,867
  3,263
  3,685
  4,133
  4,605
  5,102
  5,623
  6,167
  6,736
  7,328
  7,945
  8,587
  9,254
  9,947
  10,667
  11,416
  12,194
  13,003
  13,845
  14,720
  15,632
  16,581
  17,570
  18,601
  19,676
  20,799
  21,970
  23,194
  24,473
  25,809
Total equity, $m
  2,197
  1,564
  1,780
  2,011
  2,255
  2,513
  2,784
  3,068
  3,365
  3,675
  3,998
  4,335
  4,685
  5,049
  5,427
  5,820
  6,229
  6,653
  7,094
  7,554
  8,031
  8,529
  9,046
  9,586
  10,149
  10,735
  11,348
  11,987
  12,655
  13,352
  14,081
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,280
  4,431
  5,043
  5,696
  6,388
  7,118
  7,886
  8,691
  9,532
  10,411
  11,326
  12,280
  13,272
  14,303
  15,374
  16,487
  17,645
  18,847
  20,097
  21,399
  22,751
  24,161
  25,627
  27,156
  28,750
  30,411
  32,147
  33,957
  35,849
  37,825
  39,890
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.477
  0.990
  1.090
  1.180
  1.250
  1.310
  1.360
  1.400
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.610
  1.620
  1.640
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.720
  1.730
  1.730
  1.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.234
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353
  0.353

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  463
  529
  603
  682
  766
  855
  948
  1,045
  1,147
  1,254
  1,364
  1,549
  1,669
  1,793
  1,923
  2,057
  2,197
  2,342
  2,494
  2,651
  2,814
  2,985
  3,162
  3,347
  3,540
  3,741
  3,951
  4,170
  4,399
  4,638
  4,888
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  141
  302
  330
  361
  393
  428
  463
  501
  540
  582
  624
  574
  621
  669
  719
  771
  825
  882
  940
  1,001
  1,064
  1,130
  1,199
  1,270
  1,345
  1,422
  1,504
  1,588
  1,677
  1,769
  1,866
Funds from operations, $m
  642
  831
  934
  1,043
  1,160
  1,282
  1,411
  1,546
  1,688
  1,835
  1,989
  2,123
  2,289
  2,462
  2,642
  2,828
  3,022
  3,224
  3,434
  3,652
  3,879
  4,115
  4,361
  4,617
  4,884
  5,163
  5,454
  5,758
  6,075
  6,407
  6,754
Change in working capital, $m
  -45
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
Cash from operations, $m
  687
  805
  906
  1,014
  1,129
  1,250
  1,377
  1,510
  1,650
  1,796
  1,948
  2,080
  2,245
  2,416
  2,594
  2,778
  2,970
  3,170
  3,377
  3,593
  3,818
  4,052
  4,295
  4,549
  4,813
  5,089
  5,376
  5,677
  5,990
  6,318
  6,661
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -180
  -207
  -236
  -266
  -299
  -333
  -369
  -406
  -446
  -487
  -530
  -574
  -621
  -669
  -719
  -771
  -825
  -882
  -940
  -1,001
  -1,064
  -1,130
  -1,199
  -1,270
  -1,345
  -1,422
  -1,504
  -1,588
  -1,677
  -1,769
New CAPEX, $m
  -271
  -268
  -286
  -305
  -324
  -341
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -411
  -428
  -446
  -464
  -482
  -501
  -521
  -541
  -563
  -585
  -608
  -633
  -659
  -686
  -715
  -745
  -777
  -811
  -847
  -885
  -924
  -966
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -515
  -448
  -493
  -541
  -590
  -640
  -692
  -745
  -800
  -857
  -915
  -976
  -1,038
  -1,103
  -1,170
  -1,240
  -1,312
  -1,388
  -1,467
  -1,548
  -1,634
  -1,723
  -1,816
  -1,914
  -2,015
  -2,122
  -2,233
  -2,351
  -2,473
  -2,601
  -2,735
Free cash flow, $m
  172
  356
  412
  473
  539
  609
  685
  765
  850
  939
  1,032
  1,105
  1,207
  1,313
  1,424
  1,539
  1,658
  1,782
  1,911
  2,045
  2,184
  2,329
  2,479
  2,635
  2,797
  2,966
  3,143
  3,326
  3,517
  3,717
  3,925
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -61
  369
  396
  422
  448
  472
  497
  521
  545
  569
  593
  617
  642
  667
  693
  720
  749
  778
  809
  841
  876
  911
  949
  989
  1,031
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,224
  1,279
  1,337
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -202
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -205
  369
  396
  422
  448
  472
  497
  521
  545
  569
  593
  617
  642
  667
  693
  720
  749
  778
  809
  841
  876
  911
  949
  989
  1,031
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,224
  1,279
  1,337
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -34
  725
  809
  895
  986
  1,082
  1,182
  1,286
  1,394
  1,507
  1,625
  1,721
  1,848
  1,980
  2,117
  2,259
  2,407
  2,560
  2,720
  2,886
  3,060
  3,240
  3,428
  3,624
  3,828
  4,042
  4,265
  4,498
  4,741
  4,996
  5,262
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -348
  -204
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -408
  -425
  -441
  -459
  -478
  -497
  -518
  -540
  -563
  -587
  -612
  -639
  -668
  -698
  -729
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,389
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  165
  190
  216
  244
  273
  304
  337
  372
  408
  445
  485
  525
  568
  612
  658
  705
  755
  806
  860
  915
  973
  1,034
  1,096
  1,162
  1,230
  1,301
  1,375
  1,453
  1,534
  1,618
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,910
  593
  665
  742
  824
  911
  1,002
  1,097
  1,197
  1,302
  1,385
  1,498
  1,616
  1,739
  1,866
  1,998
  2,136
  2,279
  2,427
  2,582
  2,743
  2,910
  3,084
  3,266
  3,455
  3,653
  3,859
  4,074
  4,298
  4,533
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,831
  542
  579
  611
  639
  661
  677
  686
  688
  682
  658
  639
  614
  584
  548
  508
  465
  420
  374
  328
  284
  241
  202
  166
  134
  107
  83
  63
  47
  34
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Illumina, Inc. (Illumina) is a provider of sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic analysis. The Company operates through two segments: Core Illumina and the consolidated variable interest entities (VIEs), which include the activities of GRAIL, Inc. (GRAIL) and Helix Holdings I, LLC (Helix). Core Illumina consists of its core operations. Core Illumina's products and services serve customers in the research, clinical and applied markets, and enable the adoption of a range of genomic solutions. The Company's portfolio of integrated systems, consumables and analysis tools addresses the range of genomic complexity, price points, and throughput, enabling customers to select the solution for their research or clinical challenge. The Company provides reproductive-health solutions, including noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT), preimplantation genetic screening and diagnosis, and neonatal and genetic health testing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Illumina (ILMN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 104.3
Price to Sales 20.1
Price to Book 22
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 70.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 116
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 89.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1559
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 47.7%
Total Debt to Equity 47.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Return On Total Capital 15%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Return On Equity 22.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin 29.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
Operating Margin 24.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.6%
Net Profit Margin 19.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Effective Tax Rate 23.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

ILMN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ILMN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2752 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Illumina. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Illumina. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ILMN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ILMN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Illumina, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Illumina.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ILMN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ILMN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Illumina.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Illumina. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ILMN stock is equal to 6%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ILMN are equal to 65.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Illumina operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ILMN is equal to 6.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2749 million for Illumina - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 146 million for Illumina is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Illumina at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $48.2 billion.

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Financial statements of ILMN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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