Intrinsic value of Ingles Markets Cl A - IMKTA

Previous Close

$24.10

  Intrinsic Value

$18.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-25%

  Value-price divergence*

+31%

Previous close

$24.10

 
Intrinsic value

$18.15

 
Up/down potential

-25%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+31%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMKTA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.42
  2.80
  3.02
  3.22
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  3,795
  3,901
  4,019
  4,148
  4,289
  4,442
  4,606
  4,783
  4,972
  5,173
  5,388
  5,616
  5,858
  6,114
  6,386
  6,673
  6,976
  7,297
  7,635
  7,991
  8,367
  8,763
  9,180
  9,619
  10,081
  10,568
  11,079
  11,618
  12,184
  12,779
  13,404
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,757
  3,870
  3,995
  4,131
  4,278
  4,436
  4,606
  4,788
  4,982
  5,188
  5,408
  5,641
  5,888
  6,149
  6,426
  6,718
  7,027
  7,352
  7,695
  8,057
  8,439
  8,840
  9,263
  9,708
  10,177
  10,669
  11,188
  11,733
  12,306
  12,908
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,666
  3,757
  3,870
  3,995
  4,131
  4,278
  4,436
  4,606
  4,788
  4,982
  5,188
  5,408
  5,641
  5,888
  6,149
  6,426
  6,718
  7,027
  7,352
  7,695
  8,057
  8,439
  8,840
  9,263
  9,708
  10,177
  10,669
  11,188
  11,733
  12,306
  12,908
Operating income, $m
  129
  144
  149
  153
  159
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  282
  296
  310
  324
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  473
  496
EBITDA, $m
  236
  254
  262
  270
  280
  289
  300
  312
  324
  337
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  545
  571
  598
  627
  657
  689
  722
  757
  794
  833
  874
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
Earnings before tax, $m
  85
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  273
  285
  298
Tax expense, $m
  31
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  80
Net income, $m
  54
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  88
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,686
  1,727
  1,779
  1,836
  1,899
  1,966
  2,039
  2,117
  2,201
  2,290
  2,385
  2,486
  2,593
  2,707
  2,827
  2,954
  3,088
  3,230
  3,380
  3,537
  3,704
  3,879
  4,064
  4,258
  4,463
  4,678
  4,905
  5,143
  5,393
  5,657
  5,934
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,680
  1,727
  1,779
  1,836
  1,899
  1,966
  2,039
  2,117
  2,201
  2,290
  2,385
  2,486
  2,593
  2,707
  2,827
  2,954
  3,088
  3,230
  3,380
  3,537
  3,704
  3,879
  4,064
  4,258
  4,463
  4,678
  4,905
  5,143
  5,393
  5,657
  5,934
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
  2.259
Average production assets, $m
  1,230
  1,264
  1,302
  1,344
  1,390
  1,439
  1,492
  1,550
  1,611
  1,676
  1,746
  1,819
  1,898
  1,981
  2,069
  2,162
  2,260
  2,364
  2,474
  2,589
  2,711
  2,839
  2,974
  3,117
  3,266
  3,424
  3,590
  3,764
  3,947
  4,140
  4,343
Working capital, $m
  176
  183
  189
  195
  202
  209
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  393
  412
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  573
  601
  630
Total debt, $m
  876
  903
  941
  982
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,184
  1,245
  1,309
  1,377
  1,450
  1,527
  1,609
  1,695
  1,787
  1,883
  1,986
  2,093
  2,207
  2,327
  2,453
  2,586
  2,726
  2,873
  3,028
  3,191
  3,363
  3,543
  3,733
  3,932
Total liabilities, $m
  1,216
  1,243
  1,281
  1,322
  1,367
  1,416
  1,468
  1,524
  1,585
  1,649
  1,717
  1,790
  1,867
  1,949
  2,035
  2,127
  2,223
  2,326
  2,433
  2,547
  2,667
  2,793
  2,926
  3,066
  3,213
  3,368
  3,531
  3,703
  3,883
  4,073
  4,272
Total equity, $m
  470
  484
  498
  514
  532
  551
  571
  593
  616
  641
  668
  696
  726
  758
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,037
  1,086
  1,138
  1,192
  1,250
  1,310
  1,373
  1,440
  1,510
  1,584
  1,661
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,686
  1,727
  1,779
  1,836
  1,899
  1,967
  2,039
  2,117
  2,201
  2,290
  2,385
  2,486
  2,593
  2,707
  2,826
  2,954
  3,088
  3,230
  3,379
  3,537
  3,704
  3,879
  4,064
  4,258
  4,463
  4,678
  4,904
  5,143
  5,393
  5,657
  5,933
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.864
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.210
  2.230
  2.240
  2.260
  2.270
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.340
  2.350
  2.360
  2.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  54
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  88
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
Funds from operations, $m
  149
  182
  187
  193
  199
  205
  213
  220
  229
  237
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  303
  316
  330
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  159
  177
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  220
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  302
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  516
  540
  566
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -360
New CAPEX, $m
  -138
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -193
  -203
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -137
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -382
  -401
  -421
  -442
  -464
  -486
  -510
  -536
  -563
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  36
  33
  31
  30
  28
  26
  25
  24
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  15
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -11
  33
  38
  41
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  180
  190
  199
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  33
  38
  41
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  180
  190
  199
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  69
  71
  73
  74
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -41
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  56
  56
  56
  57
  58
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
Discount rate, %
 
  9.40
  9.87
  10.36
  10.88
  11.43
  12.00
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.58
  15.31
  16.08
  16.88
  17.73
  18.61
  19.54
  20.52
  21.54
  22.62
  23.75
  24.94
  26.19
  27.50
  28.87
  30.32
  31.83
  33.42
  35.09
  36.85
  38.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  51
  47
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ingles Markets, Incorporated (Ingles) is a supermarket chain in the southeast United States. The Company's segments include retail grocery and other. Its other segment consists of fluid dairy operations and shopping center rentals. As of September 24, 2016, the Company operated 201 supermarkets in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and Alabama. The Company locates its supermarkets primarily in suburban areas, small towns and rural communities. Ingles supermarkets offer customers a range of food products, including grocery, meat and dairy products, produce, frozen foods and other perishables and non-food products. Its non-food products include fuel centers, pharmacies, health and beauty care products and general merchandise. The Company focuses on selling products to its customers through the development of organic products, bakery departments and prepared foods, including delicatessen sections.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ingles Markets Cl A (IMKTA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 32.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 184.3%
Total Debt to Equity 186.4%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 12%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.3%
EBITDA Margin 6.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Operating Margin 3.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 24.1%

IMKTA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMKTA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3795 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ingles Markets Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ingles Markets Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMKTA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.4%, whose default value for IMKTA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ingles Markets Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ingles Markets Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMKTA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMKTA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Ingles Markets Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ingles Markets Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMKTA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMKTA are equal to 32.4%.

Life of production assets of 11.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ingles Markets Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMKTA is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $470 million for Ingles Markets Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 21.222 million for Ingles Markets Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ingles Markets Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Triad grocery stores, ranked by market share   [Jun-27-17 02:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingles Markets, Inc. : May 19, 2017   [May-19-17 01:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ How Whole Foods Went From Undervalued To Overvalued   [May-10-17 02:22PM  Benzinga]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingles Markets, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 04:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingles posts 2Q profit   [May-04-17 03:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ingles posts 1Q profit   [05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid Dennys Corporation (DENN)?   [Dec-09-16 03:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid PharMerica Corporation (PMC)?   [Dec-05-16 02:22PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ingles Markets or Whole Foods: Which to Buy? (IMKTA, WFM)   [Jul-05-16 01:44PM  at Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingles Markets, Inc. : April 26, 2016   [Apr-26-16 12:01PM  at Capital Cube]
▶ Krispy Kreme, Ingles Join the Cage-Free Revolution   [Apr-05-16 07:00PM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of IMKTA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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