Intrinsic value of Imprimis Pharmaceuticals - IMMY

Previous Close

$2.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$2.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.06

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IMMY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  100.00
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  20
  30
  44
  62
  85
  114
  151
  194
  246
  305
  374
  451
  538
  633
  737
  850
  971
  1,100
  1,238
  1,384
  1,537
  1,698
  1,866
  2,042
  2,226
  2,417
  2,616
  2,823
  3,038
  3,261
  3,494
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  39
  57
  80
  110
  148
  194
  251
  317
  394
  483
  582
  694
  817
  951
  1,096
  1,253
  1,420
  1,597
  1,785
  1,983
  2,190
  2,408
  2,635
  2,871
  3,118
  3,375
  3,642
  3,919
  4,207
  4,507
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
Total operating expenses, $m
  38
  51
  70
  93
  123
  162
  208
  265
  332
  409
  498
  598
  710
  834
  968
  1,113
  1,271
  1,438
  1,616
  1,804
  2,003
  2,210
  2,429
  2,656
  2,893
  3,140
  3,398
  3,665
  3,943
  4,232
  4,532
Operating income, $m
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -31
  -38
  -47
  -58
  -71
  -86
  -104
  -124
  -147
  -172
  -200
  -231
  -264
  -299
  -337
  -378
  -420
  -465
  -513
  -562
  -613
  -667
  -723
  -781
  -842
  -905
  -970
  -1,038
EBITDA, $m
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -55
  -68
  -82
  -99
  -118
  -140
  -164
  -191
  -220
  -251
  -285
  -321
  -359
  -400
  -442
  -487
  -534
  -583
  -634
  -687
  -742
  -800
  -859
  -921
  -986
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  36
  43
  50
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  244
  262
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -22
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -53
  -66
  -82
  -101
  -123
  -148
  -176
  -208
  -243
  -281
  -323
  -367
  -415
  -466
  -519
  -576
  -636
  -698
  -763
  -831
  -902
  -975
  -1,052
  -1,132
  -1,214
  -1,300
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -22
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -53
  -66
  -82
  -101
  -123
  -148
  -176
  -208
  -243
  -281
  -323
  -367
  -415
  -466
  -519
  -576
  -636
  -698
  -763
  -831
  -902
  -975
  -1,052
  -1,132
  -1,214
  -1,300

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  27
  37
  53
  76
  104
  140
  185
  238
  301
  374
  458
  553
  659
  776
  903
  1,041
  1,190
  1,349
  1,517
  1,696
  1,883
  2,081
  2,287
  2,503
  2,728
  2,962
  3,206
  3,459
  3,723
  3,997
  4,281
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  18
  37
  53
  76
  104
  140
  185
  238
  301
  374
  458
  553
  659
  776
  903
  1,041
  1,190
  1,349
  1,517
  1,696
  1,883
  2,081
  2,287
  2,503
  2,728
  2,962
  3,206
  3,459
  3,723
  3,997
  4,281
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.111
  0.811
  0.830
  0.816
  0.817
  0.814
  0.816
  0.815
  0.817
  0.816
  0.817
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.817
  0.816
  0.815
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
Average production assets, $m
  3
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  23
  29
  37
  46
  56
  68
  81
  95
  111
  127
  146
  165
  186
  208
  231
  255
  280
  306
  334
  363
  392
  423
  456
  489
  524
Working capital, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  14
  21
  33
  50
  72
  99
  132
  173
  220
  276
  339
  411
  491
  579
  675
  779
  891
  1,011
  1,139
  1,273
  1,415
  1,564
  1,720
  1,883
  2,053
  2,229
  2,414
  2,605
  2,804
  3,011
  3,225
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  28
  40
  57
  79
  106
  139
  180
  227
  283
  346
  418
  498
  586
  682
  786
  898
  1,018
  1,146
  1,280
  1,422
  1,571
  1,727
  1,890
  2,060
  2,236
  2,421
  2,612
  2,811
  3,018
  3,232
Total equity, $m
  6
  9
  13
  19
  26
  34
  45
  58
  74
  92
  112
  136
  161
  190
  221
  255
  292
  330
  372
  415
  461
  510
  560
  613
  668
  726
  785
  848
  912
  979
  1,049
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  27
  37
  53
  76
  105
  140
  184
  238
  301
  375
  458
  554
  659
  776
  903
  1,041
  1,190
  1,348
  1,518
  1,695
  1,883
  2,081
  2,287
  2,503
  2,728
  2,962
  3,206
  3,460
  3,723
  3,997
  4,281
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.333
  2.300
  2.550
  2.700
  2.810
  2.880
  2.930
  2.960
  2.990
  3.010
  3.020
  3.030
  3.040
  3.040
  3.050
  3.050
  3.060
  3.060
  3.060
  3.060
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
  3.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.167
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -22
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -53
  -66
  -82
  -101
  -123
  -148
  -176
  -208
  -243
  -281
  -323
  -367
  -415
  -466
  -519
  -576
  -636
  -698
  -763
  -831
  -902
  -975
  -1,052
  -1,132
  -1,214
  -1,300
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  52
Funds from operations, $m
  -12
  -22
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -64
  -79
  -97
  -118
  -142
  -169
  -200
  -233
  -270
  -310
  -353
  -398
  -447
  -499
  -553
  -610
  -670
  -732
  -798
  -866
  -936
  -1,010
  -1,086
  -1,165
  -1,248
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -11
  -22
  -26
  -33
  -41
  -51
  -64
  -79
  -97
  -118
  -142
  -169
  -200
  -233
  -270
  -310
  -353
  -398
  -447
  -499
  -553
  -610
  -670
  -732
  -798
  -866
  -936
  -1,010
  -1,086
  -1,165
  -1,248
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -80
  -84
Free cash flow, $m
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -57
  -71
  -88
  -108
  -131
  -157
  -187
  -219
  -256
  -295
  -338
  -384
  -432
  -484
  -539
  -597
  -657
  -721
  -787
  -856
  -928
  -1,002
  -1,080
  -1,161
  -1,244
  -1,332
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  3
  9
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  40
  48
  55
  63
  72
  80
  88
  96
  104
  112
  120
  127
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  25
  31
  39
  49
  62
  77
  95
  117
  141
  169
  199
  234
  271
  312
  356
  404
  454
  507
  563
  622
  684
  749
  816
  886
  959
  1,035
  1,114
  1,196
  1,281
  1,370
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  34
  44
  56
  71
  89
  110
  135
  165
  196
  232
  271
  314
  359
  408
  460
  516
  574
  634
  698
  764
  833
  905
  979
  1,056
  1,136
  1,219
  1,305
  1,395
  1,488
  1,585
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  11
  15
  20
  26
  32
  40
  48
  56
  65
  75
  84
  94
  104
  113
  123
  132
  141
  150
  159
  167
  175
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  234
  244
  253
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -25
  -31
  -39
  -49
  -62
  -77
  -95
  -117
  -141
  -169
  -199
  -234
  -271
  -312
  -356
  -404
  -454
  -507
  -563
  -622
  -684
  -749
  -816
  -886
  -959
  -1,035
  -1,114
  -1,196
  -1,281
  -1,370
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -38
  -48
  -60
  -75
  -94
  -115
  -140
  -168
  -199
  -233
  -271
  -313
  -357
  -404
  -455
  -508
  -565
  -624
  -686
  -751
  -818
  -889
  -962
  -1,038
  -1,117
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -30
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  61.9
  41.0
  28.5
  20.5
  15.1
  11.4
  8.7
  6.7
  5.3
  4.1
  3.3
  2.6
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. engages in the development, production, and dispensing of proprietary compounded pharmaceutical products to physicians and patients in the United States. It owns, markets, and sells a portfolio of proprietary combination formulations in the areas of ophthalmology, otolaryngology, urology, and infectious diseases therapeutic areas. The company also provides compounded therapeutic alternatives; and non-proprietary customizable compounded drugs for humans and animals, including sterile injectable and non-sterile integrative medicine therapies for oncology, autoimmunity, chronic infectious, and endocrine and metabolic diseases. In addition, it develops formulations in the areas of wound healing and dermatology therapeutic areas. The company was formerly known as Transdel Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and changed its name to Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in February 2012. Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Imprimis Pharmaceuticals (IMMY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.3
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 7.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 600%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 166.7%
Total Debt to Equity 233.3%
Interest Coverage -18
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -87.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -96.6%
Return On Total Capital -135.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -140.9%
Return On Equity -760%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -434.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50%
EBITDA Margin -85%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -245%
Operating Margin -90%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -246.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -95%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -251.7%
Net Profit Margin -95%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -251.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

IMMY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IMMY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $20 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Imprimis Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Imprimis Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IMMY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for IMMY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Imprimis Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IMMY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 130%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $12 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IMMY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.7% for Imprimis Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Imprimis Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IMMY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IMMY are equal to 15%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Imprimis Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IMMY is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6 million for Imprimis Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.824 million for Imprimis Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Imprimis Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Imprimis posts 2Q profit   [Aug-10-17 10:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Imprimis reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 04:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Imprimis reports 4Q loss   [Mar-21-17 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Webcast-Q4 Earnings Call for Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.   [Mar-08-17 11:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Webcast-Q4 Earnings Call for Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.   [Mar-07-17 11:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Imprimis Launches New MaxRx Prescriber Portal   [Jul-29-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10 Battered Biotech Stocks That Hit 52-Week Lows Friday   [Jul-18-16 11:05AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of IMMY Financial statements of IMMY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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