Intrinsic value of INC Research Holdings Cl A - INCR

Previous Close

$41.05

  Intrinsic Value

$19.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

Previous close

$41.05

 
Intrinsic value

$19.49

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INCR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.15
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,611
  1,643
  1,681
  1,724
  1,773
  1,826
  1,885
  1,950
  2,019
  2,094
  2,174
  2,260
  2,352
  2,450
  2,554
  2,664
  2,780
  2,904
  3,035
  3,173
  3,319
  3,472
  3,635
  3,806
  3,986
  4,176
  4,375
  4,586
  4,807
  5,040
  5,285
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,475
  1,507
  1,544
  1,586
  1,633
  1,684
  1,739
  1,799
  1,864
  1,933
  1,952
  2,031
  2,116
  2,205
  2,301
  2,401
  2,508
  2,621
  2,740
  2,866
  2,999
  3,139
  3,287
  3,442
  3,606
  3,779
  3,960
  4,152
  4,353
  4,564
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,456
  1,475
  1,507
  1,544
  1,586
  1,633
  1,684
  1,739
  1,799
  1,864
  1,933
  1,952
  2,031
  2,116
  2,205
  2,301
  2,401
  2,508
  2,621
  2,740
  2,866
  2,999
  3,139
  3,287
  3,442
  3,606
  3,779
  3,960
  4,152
  4,353
  4,564
Operating income, $m
  155
  169
  174
  180
  186
  194
  202
  210
  220
  230
  241
  308
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  452
  473
  495
  519
  543
  569
  596
  625
  655
  687
  720
EBITDA, $m
  214
  239
  245
  251
  258
  266
  274
  284
  294
  305
  316
  329
  342
  357
  372
  388
  405
  423
  442
  462
  483
  505
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  667
  700
  733
  769
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
Earnings before tax, $m
  134
  152
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  550
  575
  602
  631
Tax expense, $m
  21
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  163
  170
Net income, $m
  113
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  460

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,289
  1,211
  1,239
  1,271
  1,306
  1,346
  1,389
  1,437
  1,488
  1,543
  1,602
  1,666
  1,733
  1,805
  1,882
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,446
  2,559
  2,678
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,542
  3,714
  3,894
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,187
  1,211
  1,239
  1,271
  1,306
  1,346
  1,389
  1,437
  1,488
  1,543
  1,602
  1,666
  1,733
  1,805
  1,882
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,446
  2,559
  2,678
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,542
  3,714
  3,894
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.356
  1.358
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
  1.357
Average production assets, $m
  185
  189
  193
  198
  204
  210
  217
  224
  232
  241
  250
  260
  270
  282
  294
  306
  320
  334
  349
  365
  382
  399
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  553
  580
  608
Working capital, $m
  56
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Total debt, $m
  498
  505
  528
  554
  584
  616
  652
  691
  733
  778
  827
  879
  935
  994
  1,057
  1,124
  1,194
  1,269
  1,348
  1,432
  1,520
  1,613
  1,712
  1,815
  1,924
  2,039
  2,160
  2,288
  2,422
  2,563
  2,711
Total liabilities, $m
  987
  995
  1,018
  1,044
  1,074
  1,106
  1,142
  1,181
  1,223
  1,268
  1,317
  1,369
  1,425
  1,484
  1,547
  1,614
  1,684
  1,759
  1,838
  1,922
  2,010
  2,103
  2,202
  2,305
  2,414
  2,529
  2,650
  2,778
  2,912
  3,053
  3,201
Total equity, $m
  301
  216
  221
  226
  233
  240
  247
  256
  265
  275
  285
  296
  309
  321
  335
  349
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  477
  499
  523
  548
  574
  601
  631
  661
  693
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,288
  1,211
  1,239
  1,270
  1,307
  1,346
  1,389
  1,437
  1,488
  1,543
  1,602
  1,665
  1,734
  1,805
  1,882
  1,963
  2,049
  2,140
  2,236
  2,338
  2,445
  2,558
  2,679
  2,804
  2,937
  3,077
  3,224
  3,379
  3,543
  3,714
  3,894
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.654
  2.340
  2.400
  2.450
  2.510
  2.570
  2.640
  2.700
  2.770
  2.830
  2.900
  2.970
  3.030
  3.090
  3.160
  3.220
  3.270
  3.330
  3.390
  3.440
  3.490
  3.540
  3.590
  3.640
  3.680
  3.720
  3.760
  3.800
  3.840
  3.880
  3.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.168
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178
  0.178

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  113
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  460
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  59
  70
  71
  71
  72
  72
  73
  73
  74
  75
  75
  21
  22
  23
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Funds from operations, $m
  30
  181
  185
  189
  193
  199
  204
  210
  217
  224
  231
  225
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  285
  298
  310
  324
  339
  354
  370
  387
  405
  424
  443
  464
  486
  509
Change in working capital, $m
  -79
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  109
  182
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  212
  218
  225
  233
  226
  235
  245
  254
  265
  276
  288
  300
  313
  327
  342
  357
  374
  391
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  514
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -31
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
Free cash flow, $m
  78
  163
  166
  169
  173
  177
  182
  187
  192
  198
  205
  197
  204
  212
  220
  229
  238
  248
  259
  270
  281
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -53
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  17
  182
  189
  196
  202
  210
  218
  226
  234
  244
  253
  249
  259
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  353
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  487
  511
  535
  561
  588
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -84
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  267
  184
  190
  196
  203
  210
  217
  225
  234
  243
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  335
  350
  367
  384
  402
  421
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  252
  163
  157
  150
  143
  135
  126
  118
  109
  100
  85
  77
  68
  60
  52
  45
  38
  32
  26
  21
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

INC Research Holdings, Inc. is a global contract research organization (CRO). The Company focuses on Phase I to Phase IV clinical development services for the biopharmaceutical and medical device industries. The Company operates through two segments: Clinical Development Services and Phase I Services. The Company's Clinical Development Services segment offers a range of clinical development services, including full-service global studies, as well as ancillary services, such as clinical monitoring, investigator recruitment, patient recruitment, data management, study reports to assist customers with their drug development process, quality assurance audits and specialized consulting services. The Phase I Services segment focuses on clinical development services for Phase I trials, which include scientific exploratory medicine, first-in-human studies through proof-of-concept stages and support for Phase I studies in established compounds.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  INC Research Holdings Cl A (INCR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.5
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 7.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 28.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 47.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 161.5%
Total Debt to Equity 165.4%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 14.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 43.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Net Profit Margin 7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 15.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

INCR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INCR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1611 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by INC Research Holdings Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of INC Research Holdings Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INCR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for INCR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of INC Research Holdings Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of INC Research Holdings Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INCR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INCR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for INC Research Holdings Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for INC Research Holdings Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INCR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INCR are equal to 11.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in INC Research Holdings Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INCR is equal to -2.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $301 million for INC Research Holdings Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 103.491 million for INC Research Holdings Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of INC Research Holdings Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ INC/inVentiv stock tumbles on first combined quarterly results   [11:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ INC Research reports 3Q loss   [06:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: INC research Flashes Improved Relative Price Strength   [Oct-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ INC Research/inVentiv Health rolling along on new Perimeter Park HQ   [Oct-26-17 04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Stocks Generating Improved Relative Strength: IN Cresearch   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ IN Cresearch Sees RS Rating Improve To 73   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ [$$] Deal Close Announcements: July 31-Aug. 4   [Aug-04-17 06:02PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Done deal: INC Research, inVentiv Health complete merger   [Aug-01-17 12:23PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ INC Research meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-27-17 10:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ INC exec: New site collaboration 'more prudent' than acquisitions   [05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ INC Research, inVentiv Health reveal more post-merger leadership changes   [Jun-27-17 08:32AM  American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of INCR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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