Intrinsic value of Summit Hotel Properties - INN

Previous Close

$15.20

  Intrinsic Value

$3.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-77%

Previous close

$15.20

 
Intrinsic value

$3.44

 
Up/down potential

-77%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as INN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  474
  483
  495
  507
  522
  537
  555
  574
  594
  616
  640
  665
  692
  721
  751
  784
  818
  854
  893
  934
  976
  1,022
  1,069
  1,120
  1,173
  1,229
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,483
  1,555
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  352
  360
  369
  380
  391
  404
  418
  432
  449
  466
  484
  504
  525
  547
  571
  596
  622
  650
  680
  711
  744
  779
  815
  854
  894
  937
  982
  1,030
  1,079
  1,132
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  96
  99
Total operating expenses, $m
  391
  400
  409
  420
  432
  444
  459
  474
  489
  508
  526
  546
  567
  590
  613
  639
  666
  694
  723
  755
  788
  823
  860
  898
  939
  981
  1,026
  1,074
  1,124
  1,175
  1,231
Operating income, $m
  82
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  210
  222
  234
  247
  261
  275
  291
  307
  324
EBITDA, $m
  154
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  122
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  222
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  320
  337
  356
  375
  396
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
Earnings before tax, $m
  107
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  136
  144
  152
  161
  171
  181
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
Net income, $m
  108
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  166
  175

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,719
  1,721
  1,760
  1,805
  1,856
  1,912
  1,974
  2,041
  2,114
  2,193
  2,277
  2,367
  2,463
  2,565
  2,674
  2,789
  2,911
  3,041
  3,178
  3,322
  3,475
  3,636
  3,806
  3,985
  4,173
  4,372
  4,581
  4,801
  5,033
  5,277
  5,533
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,684
  1,721
  1,760
  1,805
  1,856
  1,912
  1,974
  2,041
  2,114
  2,193
  2,277
  2,367
  2,463
  2,565
  2,674
  2,789
  2,911
  3,041
  3,178
  3,322
  3,475
  3,636
  3,806
  3,985
  4,173
  4,372
  4,581
  4,801
  5,033
  5,277
  5,533
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
  0.281
Average production assets, $m
  109
  111
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
Working capital, $m
  0
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
Total debt, $m
  652
  667
  684
  703
  724
  748
  774
  802
  833
  866
  902
  939
  980
  1,023
  1,069
  1,117
  1,169
  1,223
  1,281
  1,342
  1,406
  1,474
  1,545
  1,621
  1,700
  1,784
  1,872
  1,964
  2,062
  2,165
  2,273
Total liabilities, $m
  708
  724
  741
  760
  781
  805
  831
  859
  890
  923
  959
  996
  1,037
  1,080
  1,126
  1,174
  1,226
  1,280
  1,338
  1,399
  1,463
  1,531
  1,602
  1,678
  1,757
  1,841
  1,929
  2,021
  2,119
  2,222
  2,330
Total equity, $m
  1,010
  996
  1,019
  1,045
  1,075
  1,107
  1,143
  1,182
  1,224
  1,270
  1,318
  1,370
  1,426
  1,485
  1,548
  1,615
  1,686
  1,761
  1,840
  1,924
  2,012
  2,105
  2,204
  2,307
  2,416
  2,531
  2,653
  2,780
  2,914
  3,055
  3,204
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,718
  1,720
  1,760
  1,805
  1,856
  1,912
  1,974
  2,041
  2,114
  2,193
  2,277
  2,366
  2,463
  2,565
  2,674
  2,789
  2,912
  3,041
  3,178
  3,323
  3,475
  3,636
  3,806
  3,985
  4,173
  4,372
  4,582
  4,801
  5,033
  5,277
  5,534
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.646
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579
  0.579

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  108
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  156
  166
  175
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  72
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
Funds from operations, $m
  140
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  138
  65
  67
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  252
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
New CAPEX, $m
  -245
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -154
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -20
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  111
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  89
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  72
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  275
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -157
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  35
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  70
  36
  36
  36
  37
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  66
  31
  29
  27
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is focused primarily on owning premium-branded, select-service hotels in the Upscale segment of the United States lodging industry. The Company's portfolio consists of 79 hotels with a total of 11,590 guestrooms located in 24 states. The Company's hotels are located in markets, such as business and corporate headquarters, retail centers, airports and tourist attractions. The Company's portfolio is located in urban and suburban markets. Based on total number of guestrooms, approximately 92% of the Company's portfolio is positioned in over 50 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), and approximately 96% is located within over 100 MSAs. Based on total number of guestrooms, approximately 99% of the Company's hotels operate under franchise brands owned by Marriott International, Inc., Hilton Worldwide, InterContinental Hotels Group, and an affiliate of Hyatt Hotels Corporation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Summit Hotel Properties (INN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.2
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -11.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 64.6%
Total Debt to Equity 64.6%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 43.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Operating Margin 17.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Net Profit Margin 22.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Effective Tax Rate -0.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Payout Ratio 62%

INN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $474 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Summit Hotel Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Summit Hotel Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for INN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Summit Hotel Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Summit Hotel Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $47 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for Summit Hotel Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Summit Hotel Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INN are equal to 22.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Summit Hotel Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INN is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1010 million for Summit Hotel Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.403 million for Summit Hotel Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Summit Hotel Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
AHT Ashford Hospit 6.40 20.77  str.buy
RLJ RLJ Lodging Tr 21.00 4.77  str.sell
HPT Hospitality Pr 29.58 4.76  str.sell
CHSP Chesapeake Lod 28.37 4.95  str.sell
SOHO Sotherly Hotel 6.73 4.87  hold
AHP Ashford Hospit 9.12 4.27  str.sell
HT Hersha Hospita 17.35 4.99  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 3Q results   [Oct-30-17 06:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Crowdfund a downpayment for a home   [Oct-12-17 01:40PM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-04-17 01:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties Appoints Independent Director   [Jul-10-17 04:35PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cincinnatis 1st Dolce Hotel tops out, gets a new name: PHOTOS   [Mar-22-17 10:25AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Cincinnatis 1st Dolce Hotel tops out, gets a new name: PHOTOS   [10:25AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Summit Hotel Properties reports 4Q results   [Feb-23-17 05:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Summit Hotel Properties Inc (INN) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 10:32PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Nurse strike at Allina hospitals was good for this business   [Nov-08-16 03:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ The Top 3 Hotel REIT ETFs of 2016 (HPT, INN)   [Sep-02-16 03:00PM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of INN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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