Intrinsic value of Inovio Pharmaceuticals - INO

Previous Close

$4.39

  Intrinsic Value

$0.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$4.39

 
Intrinsic value

$0.31

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of INO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -14.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  35
  36
  37
  37
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  112
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
Operating income, $m
  -76
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
EBITDA, $m
  -73
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  -74
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -74
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  174
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.507
  0.514
  0.514
  0.500
  0.513
  0.513
  0.506
  0.500
  0.506
  0.500
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.509
  0.504
  0.508
  0.508
  0.507
  0.507
  0.503
  0.506
  0.509
  0.509
  0.508
  0.508
  0.510
  0.505
  0.505
  0.509
Average production assets, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Working capital, $m
  81
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  23
  27
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  109
  116
Total liabilities, $m
  50
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
Total equity, $m
  123
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  173
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  89
  93
  97
  100
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  179
  188
  196
  206
  216
  226
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.120
  0.190
  0.260
  0.330
  0.410
  0.490
  0.570
  0.650
  0.730
  0.810
  0.890
  0.970
  1.050
  1.120
  1.190
  1.260
  1.330
  1.390
  1.460
  1.520
  1.580
  1.630
  1.690
  1.740
  1.790
  1.840
  1.880
  1.930
  1.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -74
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -64
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  -63
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  16
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  30
  31
  32
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  8
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  55
  57
  59
  62
  66
  69
  72
  75
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  100
  106
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -39
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  53
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  105
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  78
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  75
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  66.0
  43.5
  28.6
  18.8
  12.4
  8.1
  5.3
  3.5
  2.3
  1.5
  1.0
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Inovio) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, which is involved in developing deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) immunotherapies and vaccines focused on treating and preventing cancers and infectious diseases. The Company's DNA-based immunotherapies, in combination with its electroporation delivery devices, generates immune responses, in particular T cells, in the body to fight target diseases. It has completed, current or planned clinical programs of its SynCon immunotherapies for human papillomavirus (HPV)-caused pre-cancers and cancers, influenza, prostate cancer, breast/lung/pancreatic cancer, hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), Ebola, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Zika virus. With its immunotherapy platform, as well as with its CELLECTRA electroporation delivery technology, it has a pipeline of pre-clinical and clinical stage products that have generated in vivo immune responses.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.4
Price to Sales 9.3
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -38.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.2%
Return On Total Capital -49.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -38%
Return On Equity -49.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -38%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -202.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -204.5%
Operating Margin -220%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -234.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -211.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -215.7%
Net Profit Margin -211.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -214.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

INO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $35 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Inovio Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Inovio Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Inovio Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Inovio Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 182.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Inovio Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Inovio Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INO are equal to 40%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Inovio Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INO is equal to -68.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $123 million for Inovio Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 90.516 million for Inovio Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Inovio Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Inovio revamps China deal; nets $23M upfront payment   [Jan-02-18 05:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is Sinking Today   [Nov-09-17 02:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Inovio reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 07:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Sank in October   [Nov-07-17 07:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Montco vaccine developer posts positive results from Lassa fever virus study   [Oct-24-17 11:50AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Zika vaccine shows promise in early human trial   [Oct-04-17 05:00PM  Reuters]
▶ Is Inovio Pharmaceuticals Stock Poised for a Rebound?   [Aug-29-17 08:04AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Where Does Zika Virus Vaccine Research Stand Now?   [Aug-12-17 02:51PM  Benzinga]
▶ Inovio reports 2Q loss   [Aug-09-17 10:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Analysts Recommendations for Regeneron in July 2017   [Aug-01-17 10:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Biotech Movers: Sarepta, Inovio, Mylan   [09:38AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Inovio Announces Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock   [Jul-19-17 10:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Inovio Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock   [Jul-18-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Biotech Movers: Exelixis, Omeros, Inovio   [Jul-10-17 09:40AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Inovio Announces Leadership Appointments   [Jun-28-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Could Put Amazon's Returns to Shame   [Jun-13-17 05:26PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Biotech Movers: NewLink, Inovio, Juno   [09:20AM  TheStreet.com]
Financial statements of INO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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