Intrinsic value of Inovalon Holdings Cl A - INOV

Previous Close

$13.00

  Intrinsic Value

$13.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+7%

  Value-price divergence*

-49%

Previous close

$13.00

 
Intrinsic value

$13.97

 
Up/down potential

+7%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-49%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INOV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.06
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
  544
  571
  599
  629
  660
  693
  727
  763
  801
  841
  883
  927
  973
  1,022
  1,073
  1,126
  1,182
  1,241
  1,303
  1,368
  1,437
  1,508
  1,584
  1,663
  1,746
  1,833
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  502
  527
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
  778
  817
  857
  900
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,149
  1,206
  1,266
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  390
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  502
  527
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
  778
  817
  857
  900
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,094
  1,149
  1,206
  1,266
Operating income, $m
  38
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  287
  301
  316
  332
  348
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  490
  514
  540
  567
EBITDA, $m
  75
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  264
  277
  290
  305
  320
  336
  353
  370
  389
  408
  429
  450
  472
  496
  521
  547
  574
  603
  633
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
  355
  372
  391
  410
  430
  451
  474
  497
  522
Tax expense, $m
  12
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Net income, $m
  27
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  363
  381

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  573
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,053
  503
  528
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  705
  740
  777
  815
  856
  898
  943
  990
  1,039
  1,091
  1,145
  1,203
  1,262
  1,325
  1,392
  1,461
  1,534
  1,611
  1,691
  1,775
  1,864
  1,957
  2,055
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  480
  503
  528
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  705
  740
  777
  815
  856
  898
  943
  990
  1,039
  1,091
  1,145
  1,203
  1,262
  1,325
  1,392
  1,461
  1,534
  1,611
  1,691
  1,775
  1,864
  1,957
  2,055
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.892
  0.893
  0.892
  0.892
  0.893
  0.892
  0.892
  0.891
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.891
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.893
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
  0.892
Average production assets, $m
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
  238
  249
  262
  275
  288
  303
  318
  334
  350
  368
  386
  405
  426
  447
  469
  493
  517
  543
  570
  599
  628
  660
Working capital, $m
  602
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
  229
  241
  253
Total debt, $m
  267
  253
  271
  289
  308
  329
  350
  372
  396
  420
  446
  474
  502
  532
  564
  597
  632
  668
  707
  747
  789
  834
  880
  929
  981
  1,035
  1,092
  1,151
  1,214
  1,280
  1,349
Total liabilities, $m
  370
  355
  373
  391
  410
  431
  452
  474
  498
  522
  548
  576
  604
  634
  666
  699
  734
  770
  809
  849
  891
  936
  982
  1,031
  1,083
  1,137
  1,194
  1,253
  1,316
  1,382
  1,451
Total equity, $m
  684
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  198
  207
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  409
  430
  451
  473
  497
  522
  548
  575
  604
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,054
  503
  528
  554
  581
  610
  640
  672
  705
  740
  776
  816
  856
  898
  943
  990
  1,040
  1,091
  1,146
  1,203
  1,262
  1,326
  1,391
  1,461
  1,534
  1,610
  1,691
  1,775
  1,864
  1,957
  2,055
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.390
  1.710
  1.740
  1.780
  1.800
  1.830
  1.860
  1.880
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.030
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.220
  2.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.231
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  363
  381
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  110
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  239
  250
  263
  276
  289
  304
  319
  334
  351
  368
  387
  406
  426
  447
Change in working capital, $m
  17
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  93
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  244
  256
  268
  282
  295
  310
  325
  342
  358
  376
  395
  414
  435
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  40
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
Free cash flow, $m
  133
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  136
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  210
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
  295
  309
  325
  341
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -100
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -119
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  14
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  164
  172
  181
  189
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  292
  307
  322
  338
  354
  372
  390
  410
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  55
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  543
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  643
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  363
  381
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  616
  96
  95
  94
  93
  91
  89
  86
  83
  79
  73
  68
  64
  59
  54
  49
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
  21
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Inovalon Holdings, Inc., a technology company, provides cloud-based data analytics and data-driven intervention platforms in the United States. Its platforms enable its clients to achieve meaningful insight and improvement in clinical and quality outcomes, utilization, and financial performance. The company serves health plans, hospitals, physicians, patients, pharmaceutical companies, and researchers. Inovalon Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Bowie, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Inovalon Holdings Cl A (INOV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 71.3
Price to Sales 4.5
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 35.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 19
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 34.6%
Total Debt to Equity 39%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Equity 3.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66%
EBITDA Margin 18.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

INOV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INOV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $428 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Inovalon Holdings Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Inovalon Holdings Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INOV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INOV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Inovalon Holdings Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Inovalon Holdings Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INOV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 73.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INOV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Inovalon Holdings Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Inovalon Holdings Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INOV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INOV are equal to 36%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Inovalon Holdings Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INOV is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $684 million for Inovalon Holdings Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 147.718 million for Inovalon Holdings Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Inovalon Holdings Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Inovalon Holdings beats Street 2Q forecasts   [01:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ National Health Plans Select Inovalons Integrated Platform   [Jul-17-17 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Bowie health tech firm Inovalon to lay off 113 employees   [Jun-13-17 01:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Data Diagnostics Wins 2017 MedTech Breakthrough Award   [Jun-08-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Inovalon Holdings beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-03-17 04:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Inovalon Holdings beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Feb-22-17 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Inovalon Extends Partnership With Anthem   [Jan-09-17 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Inovalon Announces Charitable Giving for 2016   [Jan-05-17 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq trade at all-time highs   [10:59AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Stocks to Watch: Achaogen, Inovalon, Valeant   [09:36AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Inovalon Announces 2016 Investor Day   [Dec-06-16 07:55AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Avoid Graham Holdings Co (GHC)?   [Dec-02-16 04:53PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Ellie Mae Inc (ELLI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-29-16 05:37AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-24-16 01:48PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Inovalon Holdings, Inc. Stock Jumped   [Nov-03-16 01:06PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Baron Funds Comments on Inovalon Holdings Inc.   [Oct-21-16 04:11PM  Gurufocus]
Stock chart of INOV Financial statements of INOV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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