Intrinsic value of Inuvo - INUV

Previous Close

$0.92

  Intrinsic Value

$1.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+33%

  Value-price divergence*

-16%

Previous close

$0.92

 
Intrinsic value

$1.23

 
Up/down potential

+33%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-16%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of INUV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.86
  2.90
  3.11
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
Revenue, $m
  72
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  247
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  72
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  162
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
  247
Operating income, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
EBITDA, $m
  1
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Net income, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  28
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.000
  2.960
  3.040
  3.038
  3.037
  3.036
  3.034
  3.033
  2.969
  3.000
  3.029
  2.972
  3.027
  3.000
  2.976
  2.977
  3.023
  2.979
  2.980
  3.000
  3.019
  3.000
  2.983
  3.016
  3.016
  3.015
  2.986
  3.000
  2.987
  2.988
  2.988
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
Working capital, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Total debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
Total liabilities, $m
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
Total equity, $m
  12
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  28
  24
  25
  27
  27
  28
  30
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  45
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.120
  0.180
  0.240
  0.300
  0.360
  0.420
  0.480
  0.540
  0.600
  0.660
  0.710
  0.770
  0.820
  0.870
  0.920
  0.970
  1.020
  1.060
  1.100
  1.140
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.350
  1.390
  1.410
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333
  0.333

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  6
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  6
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Inuvo, Inc. (Inuvo) is an Internet advertising technology and digital publishing company. The Company operates through two segments: the Partner Network (advertising technology), and the Owned and Operated Network (digital publishing). Within the Partner Network segment, the Company recruits online publishers and provides them an advertising delivery service, the primary brands for which are ValidClick and SearchLinks. This service allows publishers the ability to place Inuvo advertising-technology in various locations and configurations within their Website or application for either a desktop or a mobile implementation. The Owned and Operated Network segment designs, builds and markets consumer Websites and applications. This segment consists of its main online property marketed under the ALOT brand and various other Websites targeted at specific demographics, such as EARNSPENDLIVE and sites designed for generating leads in a specific market vertical, such as ASKTHIS for automotive.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Inuvo (INUV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -22.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital -8.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Return On Equity -8.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.9%
EBITDA Margin 1.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Net Profit Margin -1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

INUV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the INUV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $72 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Inuvo. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Inuvo. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our INUV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for INUV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Inuvo, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Inuvo.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of INUV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for INUV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Inuvo.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Inuvo. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the INUV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for INUV are equal to 11.8%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Inuvo operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for INUV is equal to -5.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $12 million for Inuvo - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.485 million for Inuvo is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Inuvo at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ How Does Inuvo Inc (INUV) Affect Your Portfolio Returns?   [Oct-10-17 02:59PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Inuvo to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Sep-25-17 08:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Inuvo, Inc. : September 22, 2017   [Sep-22-17 11:13AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Inuvo Replaces Expired Shelf Registration Statement   [Sep-01-17 05:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Eclipse Fever Hits INUVO   [Aug-18-17 12:20PM  Marketwired]
▶ INUV: Q2 Shows Inuvo Moving to a Higher Margin Model   [Aug-09-17 05:15PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Inuvo Reports Revenue Increase of 16.8% for Q2 2017   [Aug-08-17 04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Inuvo, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 04:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Inuvo Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Inuvo, Inc. : April 24, 2017   [Apr-24-17 02:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Inuvo, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ INUV: The Purchase of NetSeer Should Return Inuvo to Growth   [Feb-14-17 03:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Inuvo Reports Fourth Quarter 2016 Results   [04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Inuvo Announces Stock Repurchase Program   [08:01AM  Marketwired]
▶ Inuvo to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-21-16 09:01AM  Marketwired]
▶ Inuvo Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:01PM  Marketwired]
▶ Inuvo to Present at the MicroCap Leadership Summit   [Sep-07-16 10:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Inuvo to Present at the LD Micro Invitational   [Jun-01-16 09:01AM  Marketwired]
▶ inuvo Issues Letter to Shareholders   [08:01AM  Marketwired]
▶ Inuvo to Present at the 28th Annual ROTH Conference   [Mar-01-16 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Inuvo, Inc. (INUV)?   [Dec-02  06:05PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Inuvo to Present at the LD Micro Main Event   [Nov-24  10:45AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of INUV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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