Intrinsic value of Inter Parfums - IPAR

Previous Close

$37.05

  Intrinsic Value

$68.65

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+85%

  Value-price divergence*

+148%

Previous close

$37.05

 
Intrinsic value

$68.65

 
Up/down potential

+85%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+148%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IPAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.09
  27.70
  25.43
  23.39
  21.55
  19.89
  18.40
  17.06
  15.86
  14.77
  13.79
  12.92
  12.12
  11.41
  10.77
  10.19
  9.67
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.48
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
Revenue, $m
  521
  665
  835
  1,030
  1,252
  1,501
  1,777
  2,080
  2,410
  2,766
  3,147
  3,554
  3,984
  4,439
  4,917
  5,418
  5,942
  6,490
  7,060
  7,653
  8,271
  8,912
  9,579
  10,272
  10,993
  11,741
  12,520
  13,329
  14,172
  15,049
  15,962
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  577
  724
  894
  1,086
  1,302
  1,542
  1,805
  2,092
  2,401
  2,732
  3,084
  3,458
  3,853
  4,268
  4,703
  5,158
  5,633
  6,128
  6,643
  7,179
  7,736
  8,315
  8,916
  9,542
  10,192
  10,867
  11,570
  12,301
  13,062
  13,855
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  454
  577
  724
  894
  1,086
  1,302
  1,542
  1,805
  2,092
  2,401
  2,732
  3,084
  3,458
  3,853
  4,268
  4,703
  5,158
  5,633
  6,128
  6,643
  7,179
  7,736
  8,315
  8,916
  9,542
  10,192
  10,867
  11,570
  12,301
  13,062
  13,855
Operating income, $m
  67
  88
  110
  136
  165
  198
  235
  275
  318
  365
  415
  469
  526
  586
  649
  715
  784
  857
  932
  1,010
  1,092
  1,176
  1,264
  1,356
  1,451
  1,550
  1,653
  1,759
  1,871
  1,986
  2,107
EBITDA, $m
  82
  107
  134
  166
  201
  241
  286
  335
  388
  445
  506
  572
  641
  714
  791
  872
  956
  1,044
  1,136
  1,231
  1,330
  1,434
  1,541
  1,652
  1,768
  1,889
  2,014
  2,144
  2,280
  2,421
  2,568
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  5
  8
  12
  16
  21
  26
  32
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  88
  97
  108
  118
  129
  141
  153
  165
  178
  192
  206
  221
  236
  251
  268
  285
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  86
  105
  128
  153
  182
  214
  248
  286
  326
  370
  416
  465
  517
  571
  628
  687
  749
  814
  881
  951
  1,024
  1,099
  1,178
  1,259
  1,344
  1,432
  1,524
  1,619
  1,719
  1,822
Tax expense, $m
  24
  23
  28
  35
  41
  49
  58
  67
  77
  88
  100
  112
  126
  139
  154
  169
  186
  202
  220
  238
  257
  276
  297
  318
  340
  363
  387
  411
  437
  464
  492
Net income, $m
  33
  63
  77
  93
  112
  133
  156
  181
  209
  238
  270
  304
  339
  377
  417
  458
  502
  547
  594
  643
  694
  747
  802
  860
  919
  981
  1,045
  1,112
  1,182
  1,255
  1,330

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  256
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  682
  544
  682
  842
  1,023
  1,227
  1,453
  1,701
  1,970
  2,261
  2,573
  2,906
  3,258
  3,630
  4,021
  4,430
  4,859
  5,306
  5,772
  6,258
  6,763
  7,287
  7,833
  8,399
  8,988
  9,601
  10,237
  10,899
  11,588
  12,305
  13,052
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  426
  544
  682
  842
  1,023
  1,227
  1,453
  1,701
  1,970
  2,261
  2,573
  2,906
  3,258
  3,630
  4,021
  4,430
  4,859
  5,306
  5,772
  6,258
  6,763
  7,287
  7,833
  8,399
  8,988
  9,601
  10,237
  10,899
  11,588
  12,305
  13,052
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.223
  1.222
  1.224
  1.223
  1.224
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
  1.223
Average production assets, $m
  197
  251
  315
  389
  473
  567
  672
  786
  911
  1,045
  1,190
  1,343
  1,506
  1,678
  1,859
  2,048
  2,246
  2,453
  2,669
  2,893
  3,126
  3,369
  3,621
  3,883
  4,155
  4,438
  4,733
  5,039
  5,357
  5,688
  6,034
Working capital, $m
  330
  122
  154
  189
  230
  276
  327
  383
  443
  509
  579
  654
  733
  817
  905
  997
  1,093
  1,194
  1,299
  1,408
  1,522
  1,640
  1,763
  1,890
  2,023
  2,160
  2,304
  2,453
  2,608
  2,769
  2,937
Total debt, $m
  75
  133
  228
  336
  460
  599
  752
  921
  1,105
  1,303
  1,515
  1,742
  1,982
  2,235
  2,501
  2,780
  3,072
  3,377
  3,694
  4,025
  4,368
  4,726
  5,097
  5,483
  5,884
  6,301
  6,734
  7,185
  7,654
  8,143
  8,651
Total liabilities, $m
  312
  370
  465
  573
  697
  836
  989
  1,158
  1,342
  1,540
  1,752
  1,979
  2,219
  2,472
  2,738
  3,017
  3,309
  3,614
  3,931
  4,262
  4,605
  4,963
  5,334
  5,720
  6,121
  6,538
  6,971
  7,422
  7,891
  8,380
  8,888
Total equity, $m
  370
  174
  218
  269
  326
  391
  463
  542
  629
  721
  821
  927
  1,039
  1,158
  1,283
  1,413
  1,550
  1,693
  1,841
  1,996
  2,157
  2,325
  2,499
  2,679
  2,867
  3,063
  3,266
  3,477
  3,697
  3,925
  4,163
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  682
  544
  683
  842
  1,023
  1,227
  1,452
  1,700
  1,971
  2,261
  2,573
  2,906
  3,258
  3,630
  4,021
  4,430
  4,859
  5,307
  5,772
  6,258
  6,762
  7,288
  7,833
  8,399
  8,988
  9,601
  10,237
  10,899
  11,588
  12,305
  13,051
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.203
  0.770
  1.050
  1.250
  1.410
  1.530
  1.620
  1.700
  1.760
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.930
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
  2.070
  2.070
  2.070
  2.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.268
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  63
  77
  93
  112
  133
  156
  181
  209
  238
  270
  304
  339
  377
  417
  458
  502
  547
  594
  643
  694
  747
  802
  860
  919
  981
  1,045
  1,112
  1,182
  1,255
  1,330
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  115
  128
  142
  156
  171
  187
  204
  221
  239
  257
  276
  296
  317
  339
  361
  385
  409
  434
  461
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  82
  101
  123
  148
  176
  207
  241
  278
  318
  361
  406
  454
  505
  559
  615
  673
  734
  798
  864
  933
  1,004
  1,079
  1,156
  1,236
  1,320
  1,407
  1,497
  1,591
  1,689
  1,791
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  56
  61
  65
  70
  75
  79
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
Cash from operations, $m
  55
  55
  70
  87
  107
  130
  156
  185
  218
  253
  291
  331
  375
  422
  471
  522
  577
  633
  693
  755
  819
  886
  956
  1,029
  1,104
  1,182
  1,263
  1,348
  1,436
  1,527
  1,623
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -15
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -103
  -115
  -128
  -142
  -156
  -171
  -187
  -204
  -221
  -239
  -257
  -276
  -296
  -317
  -339
  -361
  -385
  -409
  -434
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -84
  -94
  -104
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -216
  -224
  -233
  -243
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -318
  -331
  -345
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -69
  -83
  -98
  -114
  -130
  -147
  -166
  -185
  -205
  -224
  -245
  -266
  -287
  -309
  -331
  -354
  -378
  -403
  -428
  -454
  -482
  -509
  -538
  -568
  -600
  -633
  -667
  -703
  -740
  -779
Free cash flow, $m
  35
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -6
  0
  9
  20
  33
  48
  67
  87
  110
  135
  162
  191
  222
  255
  290
  327
  365
  405
  447
  490
  535
  582
  630
  681
  733
  787
  843
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  80
  94
  109
  124
  139
  154
  169
  184
  198
  212
  226
  240
  253
  266
  279
  292
  305
  317
  330
  344
  357
  371
  386
  401
  417
  433
  451
  469
  488
  509
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  80
  94
  109
  124
  139
  154
  169
  184
  198
  212
  226
  240
  253
  266
  279
  292
  305
  317
  330
  344
  357
  371
  386
  401
  417
  433
  451
  469
  488
  509
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  66
  81
  98
  117
  139
  162
  188
  216
  247
  279
  313
  350
  388
  428
  470
  514
  560
  608
  657
  709
  762
  818
  876
  936
  999
  1,064
  1,132
  1,202
  1,275
  1,352
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -238
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  234
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  263
  37
  47
  59
  74
  90
  109
  130
  154
  179
  207
  237
  269
  303
  339
  377
  417
  459
  502
  548
  595
  644
  695
  748
  804
  861
  920
  982
  1,047
  1,113
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  252
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  74
  82
  88
  94
  98
  101
  102
  102
  100
  96
  91
  84
  77
  70
  62
  53
  46
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Inter Parfums, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of fragrances and fragrance related products worldwide. It offers its fragrance and cosmetic products under the Balmain, Boucheron, Jimmy Choo, Karl Lagerfeld, Lanvin, Montblanc, Paul Smith, S.T. Dupont, Repetto, Van Cleef & Arpels, Abercrombie & Fitch, Agent Provocateur, Rochas, Anna Sui, Banana Republic, bebe, Coach, Dunhill, French Connection, Gap, Hollister, Oscar de la Renta, and Shanghai Tang brands. It markets and sells its products to department stores, perfumeries, specialty retailers, mass market retailers, supermarkets, domestic and international wholesalers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Jean Philippe Fragrances, Inc. and changed its name to Inter Parfums, Inc. in July 1999. Inter Parfums, Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Inter Parfums (IPAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 3.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -95.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 14.3%
Total Debt to Equity 20.3%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity 9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.6%
EBITDA Margin 16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Operating Margin 12.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Payout Ratio 54.5%

IPAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IPAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $521 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Inter Parfums. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Inter Parfums. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IPAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IPAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Inter Parfums, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Inter Parfums.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IPAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IPAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Inter Parfums.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Inter Parfums. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IPAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IPAR are equal to 37.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Inter Parfums operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IPAR is equal to 18.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $370 million for Inter Parfums - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.38 million for Inter Parfums is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Inter Parfums at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Inter Parfums, Inc. : July 5, 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The 3 Best Dividend Stocks in Beauty Products   [May-20-17 10:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Inter Parfums beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-09-17 07:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top 4 Cosmetics Stocks of 2017   [Apr-13-17 11:44AM  Investopedia]
▶ Inter Parfums Beats Q4 Estimates as Rivals Decline   [Mar-14-17 05:52PM  Investopedia]
▶ Inter Parfums tops Street 4Q forecasts   [04:24PM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of IPAR Financial statements of IPAR Annual reports of IPAR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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