Intrinsic value of Intrepid Potash - IPI

Previous Close

$3.78

  Intrinsic Value

$0.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$3.78

 
Intrinsic value

$0.70

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.48
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  211
  215
  220
  226
  232
  239
  247
  255
  264
  274
  285
  296
  308
  321
  334
  349
  364
  380
  397
  416
  435
  455
  476
  498
  522
  547
  573
  601
  630
  660
  692
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  493
  504
  517
  531
  548
  565
  585
  605
  628
  652
  678
  705
  734
  766
  799
  834
  871
  910
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,312
  1,375
  1,441
  1,511
  1,584
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  269
  493
  504
  517
  531
  548
  565
  585
  605
  628
  652
  678
  705
  734
  766
  799
  834
  871
  910
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,312
  1,375
  1,441
  1,511
  1,584
Operating income, $m
  -58
  -277
  -284
  -291
  -299
  -308
  -318
  -329
  -341
  -354
  -367
  -382
  -397
  -414
  -431
  -450
  -469
  -490
  -512
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -614
  -642
  -673
  -705
  -739
  -774
  -812
  -851
  -892
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -234
  -239
  -245
  -252
  -260
  -268
  -277
  -287
  -298
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -348
  -363
  -379
  -395
  -413
  -431
  -451
  -472
  -494
  -517
  -541
  -567
  -594
  -622
  -652
  -683
  -716
  -751
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
Earnings before tax, $m
  -68
  -286
  -293
  -300
  -309
  -318
  -328
  -340
  -352
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -427
  -446
  -465
  -485
  -507
  -530
  -554
  -580
  -607
  -635
  -665
  -697
  -730
  -765
  -802
  -841
  -882
  -925
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -67
  -286
  -293
  -300
  -309
  -318
  -328
  -340
  -352
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -427
  -446
  -465
  -485
  -507
  -530
  -554
  -580
  -607
  -635
  -665
  -697
  -730
  -765
  -802
  -841
  -882
  -925

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  541
  548
  560
  575
  591
  609
  628
  650
  673
  698
  725
  753
  784
  816
  851
  888
  927
  968
  1,011
  1,057
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,328
  1,392
  1,458
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
  1,761
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  537
  548
  560
  575
  591
  609
  628
  650
  673
  698
  725
  753
  784
  816
  851
  888
  927
  968
  1,011
  1,057
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,328
  1,392
  1,458
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
  1,761
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.393
  0.392
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.392
  0.393
  0.392
  0.392
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.392
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.394
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
Average production assets, $m
  404
  412
  422
  432
  445
  458
  473
  489
  506
  525
  545
  567
  590
  614
  640
  668
  697
  728
  761
  796
  832
  871
  912
  955
  1,000
  1,047
  1,097
  1,150
  1,206
  1,264
  1,325
Working capital, $m
  100
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Total debt, $m
  133
  136
  140
  145
  151
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  237
  249
  262
  275
  290
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  511
  538
Total liabilities, $m
  178
  181
  185
  190
  196
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
  307
  320
  335
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  506
  530
  556
  583
Total equity, $m
  363
  366
  375
  384
  395
  407
  420
  435
  450
  467
  485
  504
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  677
  707
  740
  774
  810
  848
  889
  931
  976
  1,022
  1,072
  1,124
  1,178
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  541
  547
  560
  574
  591
  608
  628
  650
  673
  698
  725
  753
  783
  816
  851
  888
  927
  967
  1,012
  1,057
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,329
  1,392
  1,459
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
  1,761
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.366
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669
  0.669

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -67
  -286
  -293
  -300
  -309
  -318
  -328
  -340
  -352
  -365
  -379
  -394
  -410
  -427
  -446
  -465
  -485
  -507
  -530
  -554
  -580
  -607
  -635
  -665
  -697
  -730
  -765
  -802
  -841
  -882
  -925
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
Funds from operations, $m
  -40
  -242
  -248
  -254
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -288
  -298
  -309
  -321
  -334
  -347
  -362
  -377
  -394
  -411
  -430
  -449
  -470
  -491
  -514
  -538
  -564
  -591
  -619
  -649
  -680
  -713
  -747
  -784
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  -18
  -244
  -250
  -257
  -264
  -272
  -282
  -291
  -302
  -313
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -368
  -384
  -400
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -478
  -500
  -523
  -548
  -574
  -601
  -630
  -660
  -692
  -726
  -761
  -798
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
Cash from investing activities, $m
  33
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  -295
  -303
  -312
  -322
  -333
  -345
  -358
  -371
  -386
  -402
  -418
  -436
  -455
  -475
  -496
  -518
  -542
  -567
  -593
  -621
  -650
  -681
  -714
  -748
  -784
  -822
  -862
  -904
  -948
  -994
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  293
  301
  310
  319
  330
  341
  354
  367
  382
  397
  413
  431
  449
  469
  489
  511
  535
  559
  585
  612
  641
  671
  703
  737
  773
  810
  849
  890
  934
  979
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  296
  305
  315
  324
  336
  348
  361
  375
  390
  406
  422
  441
  460
  480
  501
  524
  549
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  794
  832
  872
  914
  960
  1,006
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -293
  -301
  -310
  -319
  -330
  -341
  -354
  -367
  -382
  -397
  -413
  -431
  -449
  -469
  -489
  -511
  -535
  -559
  -585
  -612
  -641
  -671
  -703
  -737
  -773
  -810
  -849
  -890
  -934
  -979
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -288
  -299
  -308
  -317
  -327
  -339
  -351
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -464
  -484
  -506
  -528
  -553
  -578
  -605
  -633
  -663
  -695
  -728
  -763
  -800
  -839
  -879
  -922
  -967
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -268
  -258
  -243
  -228
  -213
  -197
  -181
  -165
  -149
  -133
  -117
  -102
  -88
  -74
  -62
  -51
  -41
  -33
  -26
  -20
  -15
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  62.4
  38.9
  24.1
  15.0
  9.3
  5.7
  3.5
  2.2
  1.3
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Intrepid Potash, Inc. is a producer of muriate of potash (potassium chloride or potash) and langbeinite (sulfate of potash magnesia) in the United States, which it markets and sells as Trio. The Company operates in the extraction, production and sale of potassium-related products. Its products are potash and Trio. It sells potash into three markets, including the agricultural market as a fertilizer input; the industrial market as a component in drilling and fracturing fluids for oil and gas wells and an input to other industrial processes, and the animal feed market as a nutrient supplement. Trio, which it mines from langbeinite ore, is its specialty fertilizer that delivers potassium, sulfate and magnesium in a single particle and has low chloride. The Company also produces salt, magnesium chloride, metal recovery salts and brine containing salt and potassium from its mining processes. It produces potash from three solar evaporation solution mining facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Intrepid Potash (IPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -40.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 36.6%
Total Debt to Equity 36.6%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Return On Total Capital -12.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.8%
Return On Equity -17%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -13.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
EBITDA Margin -7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.2%
Operating Margin -27.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -32.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.4%
Net Profit Margin -31.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.7%
Effective Tax Rate 1.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

IPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $211 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Intrepid Potash. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Intrepid Potash. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for IPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Intrepid Potash, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Intrepid Potash.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 228.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Intrepid Potash.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Intrepid Potash. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IPI are equal to 191.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Intrepid Potash operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IPI is equal to 45.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $363 million for Intrepid Potash - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.235 million for Intrepid Potash is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Intrepid Potash at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
POT Potash of Sask 19.27 2.41  str.sell
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CINR Ciner Resource 25.70 50.78  str.buy

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▶ Why Intrepid Potash Stock Jumped 10% on Monday   [Jul-10-17 04:51PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Fertilizer Affordability Index for Week Ended June 30   [Jul-05-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Fertilizer Price Update: Week Ended June 30, 2017   [Jul-03-17 10:47AM  Market Realist]
▶ Intrepid Potash Lowers Its Leverage in 1Q17   [07:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ Where Intrepids Potash Segment Margin Stands next to Peers   [Jun-30-17 10:36AM  Market Realist]
▶ Trio Makes a Move for Intrepid Potash   [09:09AM  Market Realist]
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▶ Intrepid Potashs 2017 Performance: An Overview   [Jun-28-17 05:55PM  Market Realist]
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▶ Here's Why Intrepid Potash Stock Gained 20.2% in May   [Jun-06-17 01:35PM  Motley Fool]
▶ PotashCorp: Top Potash Gross Margin Growth in 1Q17   [May-18-17 10:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ Prem Watsa Purchases Largest Position in 5 Years   [May-15-17 06:47PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Intrepid Potash, Inc. : May 4, 2017   [May-04-17 04:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Intrepid Potash reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 08:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Will Intrepid Potashs Earnings Be Better in 1Q17?   [Apr-27-17 03:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ Fertilizer Stocks and Prices for the Week Ending April 14   [Apr-17-17 07:36AM  Market Realist]
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Financial statements of IPI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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