Intrinsic value of iRobot - IRBT

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$69.26

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$69.26

 
Intrinsic value

$40.21

 
Up/down potential

-42%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IRBT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.13
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  661
  708
  757
  807
  860
  915
  972
  1,032
  1,093
  1,158
  1,225
  1,296
  1,369
  1,446
  1,525
  1,609
  1,697
  1,788
  1,884
  1,984
  2,089
  2,198
  2,313
  2,434
  2,560
  2,692
  2,831
  2,976
  3,129
  3,289
  3,456
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  638
  682
  727
  775
  824
  875
  928
  984
  1,041
  1,102
  1,161
  1,226
  1,295
  1,367
  1,441
  1,520
  1,602
  1,687
  1,777
  1,871
  1,969
  2,072
  2,180
  2,293
  2,412
  2,536
  2,666
  2,803
  2,946
  3,096
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  603
  638
  682
  727
  775
  824
  875
  928
  984
  1,041
  1,102
  1,161
  1,226
  1,295
  1,367
  1,441
  1,520
  1,602
  1,687
  1,777
  1,871
  1,969
  2,072
  2,180
  2,293
  2,412
  2,536
  2,666
  2,803
  2,946
  3,096
Operating income, $m
  58
  70
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
  343
  360
EBITDA, $m
  72
  81
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  251
  265
  278
  293
  308
  324
  340
  358
  376
  395
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  70
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  101
  108
  114
  120
  131
  139
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
  327
  344
Tax expense, $m
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Net income, $m
  42
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  254
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  508
  272
  291
  310
  331
  352
  374
  396
  420
  445
  471
  498
  526
  556
  586
  618
  652
  687
  724
  762
  803
  845
  889
  935
  984
  1,035
  1,088
  1,144
  1,202
  1,264
  1,328
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  254
  272
  291
  310
  331
  352
  374
  396
  420
  445
  471
  498
  526
  556
  586
  618
  652
  687
  724
  762
  803
  845
  889
  935
  984
  1,035
  1,088
  1,144
  1,202
  1,264
  1,328
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.602
  2.603
  2.601
  2.603
  2.598
  2.599
  2.599
  2.606
  2.602
  2.602
  2.601
  2.602
  2.603
  2.601
  2.602
  2.604
  2.603
  2.603
  2.602
  2.604
  2.601
  2.601
  2.602
  2.603
  2.602
  2.601
  2.602
  2.601
  2.603
  2.602
  2.602
Average production assets, $m
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  146
  153
  161
  170
  178
  188
  197
  207
  218
Working capital, $m
  271
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  17
  27
  36
  46
  56
  67
  78
  90
  102
  115
  128
  142
  156
  171
  187
  203
  221
  239
  257
  277
  298
  320
  342
  366
  391
  417
  445
  474
  504
Total liabilities, $m
  119
  128
  136
  146
  155
  165
  175
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  275
  290
  306
  322
  340
  358
  376
  396
  417
  439
  461
  485
  510
  536
  564
  593
  623
Total equity, $m
  389
  144
  154
  165
  176
  187
  198
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  405
  426
  449
  472
  497
  522
  549
  578
  607
  638
  671
  705
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  508
  272
  290
  311
  331
  352
  373
  397
  420
  445
  471
  498
  526
  556
  586
  618
  652
  687
  724
  763
  802
  845
  889
  936
  983
  1,034
  1,088
  1,143
  1,202
  1,264
  1,328
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.110
  0.160
  0.210
  0.250
  0.280
  0.320
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531
  0.531

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  42
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Funds from operations, $m
  162
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
  202
  213
  223
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
Change in working capital, $m
  46
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  116
  59
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  4
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  120
  50
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  238
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -88
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -86
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  58
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  103
  109
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  28
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  254
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  303
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  182
  192
  201
  212
  222
  234
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  290
  49
  49
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  46
  45
  42
  40
  38
  35
  32
  29
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

iRobot Corporation designs, builds, and sells robots for the consumer market worldwide. It offers Roomba floor vacuuming robots; Braava family of automatic floor mopping robots; Mirra Pool Cleaning Robot to clean residential pools and removes debris as small as two microns from pool floors, walls, and stair; and Looj Gutter Cleaning Robot. The company sells its robots through various distribution channels, including chain stores and other national retailers, its online store, and value-added distributors and resellers. iRobot Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  iRobot (IRBT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.9
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 18
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Total Capital 10.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.1%
EBITDA Margin 11.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Operating Margin 8.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

IRBT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IRBT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $661 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by iRobot. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of iRobot. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IRBT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IRBT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of iRobot, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of iRobot.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IRBT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IRBT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for iRobot.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for iRobot. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IRBT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IRBT are equal to 6.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in iRobot operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IRBT is equal to 2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $389 million for iRobot - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.517 million for iRobot is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of iRobot at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ iRobot Is Ready to Accelerate Growth in Japan   [Nov-29-16 09:00PM  at Motley Fool]
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▶ iRobot To Host Analyst Day   [Nov-03-16 04:01PM  PR Newswire]
▶ iRobot Shines As Roomba, Braava Jet Lead the Way   [Oct-26-16 10:19PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why iRobot Corporation Stock Is Up Today   [02:12PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of IRBT Financial statements of IRBT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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