Intrinsic value of Iridium Communications - IRDM

Previous Close

$12.30

  Intrinsic Value

$6.23

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-49%

Previous close

$12.30

 
Intrinsic value

$6.23

 
Up/down potential

-49%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of IRDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.60
  3.50
  3.65
  3.78
  3.91
  4.02
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  434
  449
  466
  483
  502
  522
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  673
  703
  735
  769
  805
  843
  883
  925
  969
  1,015
  1,064
  1,116
  1,170
  1,227
  1,286
  1,349
  1,416
  1,485
  1,558
  1,635
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  370
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  466
  486
  507
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  663
  694
  726
  761
  797
  835
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
  1,059
  1,111
  1,165
  1,222
  1,282
  1,346
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  257
  370
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  466
  486
  507
  530
  554
  579
  605
  633
  663
  694
  726
  761
  797
  835
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
  1,059
  1,111
  1,165
  1,222
  1,282
  1,346
Operating income, $m
  176
  80
  82
  86
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
EBITDA, $m
  225
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  339
  355
  373
  391
  410
  430
  451
  474
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
Earnings before tax, $m
  178
  22
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
Tax expense, $m
  67
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
Net income, $m
  111
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  411
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,500
  3,209
  3,326
  3,451
  3,586
  3,730
  3,884
  4,047
  4,220
  4,404
  4,599
  4,805
  5,022
  5,252
  5,495
  5,751
  6,020
  6,305
  6,604
  6,919
  7,251
  7,601
  7,968
  8,355
  8,761
  9,189
  9,639
  10,111
  10,608
  11,130
  11,679
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,089
  3,209
  3,326
  3,451
  3,586
  3,730
  3,884
  4,047
  4,220
  4,404
  4,599
  4,805
  5,022
  5,252
  5,495
  5,751
  6,020
  6,305
  6,604
  6,919
  7,251
  7,601
  7,968
  8,355
  8,761
  9,189
  9,639
  10,111
  10,608
  11,130
  11,679
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Average production assets, $m
  1,453
  1,504
  1,559
  1,618
  1,681
  1,748
  1,820
  1,897
  1,978
  2,064
  2,156
  2,252
  2,354
  2,462
  2,575
  2,695
  2,822
  2,955
  3,095
  3,243
  3,399
  3,563
  3,735
  3,916
  4,107
  4,307
  4,518
  4,739
  4,972
  5,217
  5,474
Working capital, $m
  434
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
Total debt, $m
  1,657
  1,741
  1,822
  1,910
  2,004
  2,105
  2,212
  2,326
  2,447
  2,575
  2,711
  2,855
  3,007
  3,167
  3,336
  3,515
  3,703
  3,902
  4,111
  4,331
  4,562
  4,806
  5,063
  5,333
  5,617
  5,915
  6,229
  6,559
  6,905
  7,270
  7,653
Total liabilities, $m
  2,156
  2,240
  2,321
  2,409
  2,503
  2,604
  2,711
  2,825
  2,946
  3,074
  3,210
  3,354
  3,506
  3,666
  3,835
  4,014
  4,202
  4,401
  4,610
  4,830
  5,061
  5,305
  5,562
  5,832
  6,116
  6,414
  6,728
  7,058
  7,404
  7,769
  8,152
Total equity, $m
  1,344
  969
  1,004
  1,042
  1,083
  1,127
  1,173
  1,222
  1,275
  1,330
  1,389
  1,451
  1,517
  1,586
  1,659
  1,737
  1,818
  1,904
  1,994
  2,090
  2,190
  2,295
  2,406
  2,523
  2,646
  2,775
  2,911
  3,054
  3,204
  3,361
  3,527
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,500
  3,209
  3,325
  3,451
  3,586
  3,731
  3,884
  4,047
  4,221
  4,404
  4,599
  4,805
  5,023
  5,252
  5,494
  5,751
  6,020
  6,305
  6,604
  6,920
  7,251
  7,600
  7,968
  8,355
  8,762
  9,189
  9,639
  10,112
  10,608
  11,130
  11,679
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.233
  1.800
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.160
  2.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302
  0.302

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  111
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
Funds from operations, $m
  209
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  225
  66
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  157
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
New CAPEX, $m
  -406
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -257
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -242
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -338
  -356
  -374
  -393
  -412
  -433
Free cash flow, $m
  -17
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -227
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  252
  84
  82
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  179
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  314
  330
  347
  364
  383
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  20
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  217
  104
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  156
  166
  177
  189
  200
  211
  224
  237
  250
  264
  280
  295
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  404
  427
  449
  473
  497
  523
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  201
  70
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  153
  162
  170
  179
  189
  198
  209
  219
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -115
  -36
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  411
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  445
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  414
  24
  24
  23
  22
  21
  20
  19
  17
  16
  14
  12
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.7
  95.5
  93.3
  90.9
  88.4
  85.9
  83.4
  80.8
  78.2
  75.6
  73.0
  70.5
  67.9
  65.5
  63.0
  60.6
  58.3
  56.0
  53.7
  51.6
  49.5
  47.4
  45.4
  43.5
  41.7
  39.9
  38.2
  36.5
  34.9
  33.4

Iridium Communications Inc. is engaged in providing global satellite communications services and products. The Company offers mobile voice and data communications services through satellite, and provides communications services offering true global coverage. It provides services to businesses, the United States and foreign governments, non-governmental organizations and consumers through its satellite network, which has over 70 in-orbit satellites with in orbit spares and related ground infrastructure. As of December 31, 2016, the Company sold its products and services to customers through a wholesale distribution network of approximately 65 service providers, approximately 195 value-added resellers (VARs) and approximately 80 value-added manufacturers (VAMs). The Company's commercial end user base includes markets, such as emergency services, maritime, aviation, government, utilities, oil and gas, mining, recreation, forestry, heavy equipment, construction and transportation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Iridium Communications (IRDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.6
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -18%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 123.3%
Total Debt to Equity 123.3%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.8%
EBITDA Margin 57.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.5%
Operating Margin 40.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 41%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Net Profit Margin 25.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.5%
Payout Ratio 13.5%

IRDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IRDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $434 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Iridium Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Iridium Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IRDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for IRDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Iridium Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Iridium Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IRDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IRDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Iridium Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Iridium Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IRDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IRDM are equal to 334.8%.

Life of production assets of 29.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Iridium Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IRDM is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1344 million for Iridium Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 99.153 million for Iridium Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Iridium Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stocks Generating Improved Relative Strength: Iridium Communications   [Dec-19-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Iridium beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-26-17 08:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Iridium to rely on used SpaceX boosters for next 2 launches   [Oct-19-17 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Cramer's lightning round: Zagg's got good swag   [Oct-12-17 07:01PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ [$$] SpaceX Has Successful Launch As It Ramps Up Operational Tempo   [Oct-10-17 12:22AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ SpaceX Launches Iridium Satellites As It Plots Its Own Ambitions   [Oct-09-17 04:51PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ SpaceX launches 14th mission of 2017; 15th planned for Wednesday   [02:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Highlights From Iridium Communications Q2 2017 Report   [Aug-09-17 09:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for the Long Term   [Aug-01-17 10:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Iridium tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-27-17 10:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Iridium says newly launched satellites are functioning well   [Jun-26-17 07:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ SpaceX launches 10 satellites from California air base   [Jun-25-17 08:11PM  Associated Press]
▶ Iridium to Present at William Blair Growth Stock Conference   [May-31-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Iridium Readies for Second Round Satellite Launch   [May-28-17 04:46PM  Motley Fool]
▶ New Target Date for Second Iridium® NEXT Launch   [May-25-17 02:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Iridium Remains Confident in Its Long-Term Prospects   [Apr-27-17 09:45AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Iridium beats 1Q profit forecasts   [08:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ Better Buy: Iridium Communications vs. Globalstar   [Mar-17-17 08:29AM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of IRDM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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