Intrinsic value of International Speedway Cl A - ISCA

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$37.70

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.70

 
Intrinsic value

$7.63

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ISCA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.48
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  661
  674
  690
  707
  727
  749
  774
  800
  828
  859
  892
  927
  965
  1,005
  1,048
  1,093
  1,141
  1,192
  1,245
  1,302
  1,362
  1,425
  1,491
  1,561
  1,635
  1,713
  1,795
  1,881
  1,972
  2,068
  2,168
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  585
  598
  613
  630
  649
  669
  692
  716
  742
  770
  788
  820
  854
  891
  929
  970
  1,013
  1,058
  1,107
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,327
  1,390
  1,456
  1,526
  1,599
  1,676
  1,758
  1,843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  551
  585
  598
  613
  630
  649
  669
  692
  716
  742
  770
  788
  820
  854
  891
  929
  970
  1,013
  1,058
  1,107
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,327
  1,390
  1,456
  1,526
  1,599
  1,676
  1,758
  1,843
Operating income, $m
  110
  89
  92
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
EBITDA, $m
  212
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
Interest expense (income), $m
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
Earnings before tax, $m
  124
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  96
  111
  115
  118
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  198
  207
  215
  225
Tax expense, $m
  48
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
Net income, $m
  76
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  264
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,173
  1,949
  1,993
  2,045
  2,102
  2,166
  2,236
  2,312
  2,394
  2,483
  2,579
  2,680
  2,789
  2,905
  3,028
  3,159
  3,297
  3,444
  3,599
  3,762
  3,935
  4,118
  4,310
  4,513
  4,727
  4,952
  5,188
  5,438
  5,700
  5,976
  6,267
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,909
  1,949
  1,993
  2,045
  2,102
  2,166
  2,236
  2,312
  2,394
  2,483
  2,579
  2,680
  2,789
  2,905
  3,028
  3,159
  3,297
  3,444
  3,599
  3,762
  3,935
  4,118
  4,310
  4,513
  4,727
  4,952
  5,188
  5,438
  5,700
  5,976
  6,267
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
  0.346
Average production assets, $m
  1,632
  1,664
  1,702
  1,746
  1,795
  1,850
  1,909
  1,974
  2,045
  2,120
  2,202
  2,289
  2,382
  2,481
  2,586
  2,697
  2,816
  2,941
  3,073
  3,213
  3,360
  3,516
  3,681
  3,854
  4,036
  4,228
  4,431
  4,644
  4,868
  5,103
  5,351
Working capital, $m
  218
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
Total debt, $m
  263
  275
  293
  314
  337
  363
  391
  422
  455
  491
  529
  570
  614
  661
  710
  763
  819
  878
  940
  1,006
  1,076
  1,149
  1,227
  1,309
  1,395
  1,485
  1,581
  1,681
  1,787
  1,898
  2,015
Total liabilities, $m
  772
  785
  803
  824
  847
  873
  901
  932
  965
  1,001
  1,039
  1,080
  1,124
  1,171
  1,220
  1,273
  1,329
  1,388
  1,450
  1,516
  1,586
  1,659
  1,737
  1,819
  1,905
  1,995
  2,091
  2,191
  2,297
  2,408
  2,525
Total equity, $m
  1,400
  1,163
  1,190
  1,221
  1,255
  1,293
  1,335
  1,380
  1,429
  1,482
  1,539
  1,600
  1,665
  1,734
  1,808
  1,886
  1,968
  2,056
  2,148
  2,246
  2,349
  2,458
  2,573
  2,694
  2,822
  2,956
  3,098
  3,246
  3,403
  3,568
  3,741
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,172
  1,948
  1,993
  2,045
  2,102
  2,166
  2,236
  2,312
  2,394
  2,483
  2,578
  2,680
  2,789
  2,905
  3,028
  3,159
  3,297
  3,444
  3,598
  3,762
  3,935
  4,117
  4,310
  4,513
  4,727
  4,951
  5,189
  5,437
  5,700
  5,976
  6,266
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.188
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.595
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  102
  109
  111
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  133
  138
  144
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
Funds from operations, $m
  245
  164
  167
  171
  175
  180
  185
  190
  196
  203
  210
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  246
  168
  168
  172
  176
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  216
  225
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  285
  297
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  402
  420
  440
  460
  482
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -95
  -97
  -99
  -102
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -283
  -297
New CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -387
  -406
  -427
  -448
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -545
Free cash flow, $m
  182
  41
  33
  29
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  7
  1
  -1
  -4
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  15
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  7
  11
  18
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -60
  15
  18
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  36
  43
  49
  59
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  103
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  156
  166
  177
  187
  198
  211
  223
  236
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  122
  56
  51
  50
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  46
  46
  42
  42
  42
  43
  43
  43
  43
  44
  44
  45
  45
  46
  47
  48
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  54
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  261
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  293
  24
  19
  15
  10
  6
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  281
  22
  17
  12
  8
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.4
  98.8
  97.9
  96.7
  95.5
  94.1
  92.6
  91.1
  89.4
  87.7
  85.9
  84.1
  82.3
  80.4
  78.6
  76.7
  74.8
  73.0
  71.1
  69.3
  67.4
  65.6

International Speedway Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, promotes motorsports themed entertainment activities in the United States. Its motorsports themed event operations consist principally of racing events at its motorsports entertainment facilities, which promote approximately 100 stock car, open wheel, sports car, truck, motorcycle, and other racing events. The company is also involved in food and beverage concession operations; the provision of catering services in suites and chalets; and the creation of motorsports-related programming content carried on radio stations, as well as Sirius XM Radio, a national satellite radio service. In addition, it uses its motorsports entertainment facilities for testing for teams, driving schools, riding experiences, car shows, auto fairs, concerts, and music festivals, as well as settings for television commercials, print advertisements, and motion pictures; and rents ‘show cars’ for promotional events. Further, the company engages in souvenir merchandising operations. It owns and/or operates 13 motorsports entertainment facilities with approximately 762,000 grandstand seats and 573 suites. The company was formerly known as Daytona International Speedway Corporation and changed its name to International Speedway Corporation in 1968. International Speedway Corporation was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  International Speedway Cl A (ISCA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 88
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 18.6%
Total Debt to Equity 18.8%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.8%
EBITDA Margin 36.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33%
Operating Margin 16.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Effective Tax Rate 38.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 25%

ISCA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ISCA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $661 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by International Speedway Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of International Speedway Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ISCA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ISCA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of International Speedway Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of International Speedway Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ISCA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ISCA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for International Speedway Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for International Speedway Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ISCA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ISCA are equal to 246.8%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in International Speedway Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ISCA is equal to -6.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1400 million for International Speedway Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.196 million for International Speedway Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of International Speedway Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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Stock chart of ISCA Financial statements of ISCA
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