Intrinsic value of Investors Title - ITIC

Previous Close

$191.01

  Intrinsic Value

$872.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+357%

  Value-price divergence*

+3131%

Previous close

$191.01

 
Intrinsic value

$872.28

 
Up/down potential

+357%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+3131%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ITIC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ITIC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.66
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  0
  162
  189
  218
  248
  281
  316
  353
  392
  433
  476
  521
  567
  616
  666
  719
  773
  830
  889
  950
  1,014
  1,080
  1,149
  1,221
  1,296
  1,374
  1,455
  1,539
  1,627
  1,720
  1,816
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  125
  135
  144
  155
  165
  176
  188
  200
  212
  225
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  316
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
Total operating expenses, $m
  110
  119
  127
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
  279
  294
  307
  322
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  441
  461
  481
  503
Operating income, $m
  28
  43
  62
  84
  107
  132
  158
  186
  216
  247
  279
  313
  349
  386
  425
  465
  507
  550
  596
  643
  692
  743
  796
  852
  909
  970
  1,032
  1,098
  1,167
  1,238
  1,313
EBITDA, $m
  30
  45
  65
  87
  110
  136
  163
  191
  221
  253
  286
  321
  357
  395
  434
  475
  518
  562
  608
  656
  706
  758
  813
  869
  928
  989
  1,053
  1,120
  1,190
  1,263
  1,339
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
Earnings before tax, $m
  28
  43
  62
  83
  105
  130
  155
  183
  212
  242
  274
  307
  342
  378
  416
  455
  496
  538
  583
  629
  677
  727
  778
  833
  889
  948
  1,009
  1,073
  1,140
  1,210
  1,283
Tax expense, $m
  8
  12
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  83
  92
  102
  112
  123
  134
  145
  157
  170
  183
  196
  210
  225
  240
  256
  272
  290
  308
  327
  347
Net income, $m
  20
  31
  45
  60
  77
  95
  113
  133
  154
  177
  200
  224
  249
  276
  303
  332
  362
  393
  425
  459
  494
  530
  568
  608
  649
  692
  737
  784
  832
  884
  937

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  229
  269
  313
  361
  412
  467
  525
  586
  651
  718
  789
  863
  941
  1,021
  1,105
  1,192
  1,283
  1,377
  1,475
  1,576
  1,682
  1,792
  1,906
  2,025
  2,149
  2,278
  2,412
  2,553
  2,699
  2,852
  3,011
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  229
  269
  313
  361
  412
  467
  525
  586
  651
  718
  789
  863
  941
  1,021
  1,105
  1,192
  1,283
  1,377
  1,475
  1,576
  1,682
  1,792
  1,906
  2,025
  2,149
  2,278
  2,412
  2,553
  2,699
  2,852
  3,011
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.602
  0.604
  0.604
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.602
  0.603
  0.603
  0.604
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.602
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
Average production assets, $m
  15
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  0
  13
  27
  43
  59
  77
  95
  115
  136
  158
  181
  205
  230
  256
  283
  311
  340
  371
  402
  435
  469
  505
  542
  580
  620
  662
  705
  750
  798
  847
  899
Total liabilities, $m
  74
  87
  101
  117
  133
  151
  169
  189
  210
  232
  255
  279
  304
  330
  357
  385
  414
  445
  476
  509
  543
  579
  616
  654
  694
  736
  779
  824
  872
  921
  973
Total equity, $m
  155
  182
  212
  244
  279
  316
  355
  397
  440
  486
  534
  585
  637
  691
  748
  807
  868
  932
  998
  1,067
  1,139
  1,213
  1,290
  1,371
  1,455
  1,542
  1,633
  1,728
  1,827
  1,931
  2,039
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  229
  269
  313
  361
  412
  467
  524
  586
  650
  718
  789
  864
  941
  1,021
  1,105
  1,192
  1,282
  1,377
  1,474
  1,576
  1,682
  1,792
  1,906
  2,025
  2,149
  2,278
  2,412
  2,552
  2,699
  2,852
  3,012
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.070
  0.130
  0.170
  0.210
  0.240
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677
  0.677

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  20
  31
  45
  60
  77
  95
  113
  133
  154
  177
  200
  224
  249
  276
  303
  332
  362
  393
  425
  459
  494
  530
  568
  608
  649
  692
  737
  784
  832
  884
  937
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  34
  48
  64
  81
  99
  118
  138
  160
  183
  207
  232
  258
  285
  313
  342
  373
  405
  438
  473
  509
  546
  585
  625
  668
  712
  758
  806
  856
  908
  963
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  34
  48
  64
  81
  99
  118
  138
  160
  183
  207
  232
  258
  285
  313
  342
  373
  405
  438
  473
  509
  546
  585
  625
  668
  712
  758
  806
  856
  908
  963
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  29
  43
  58
  74
  92
  110
  130
  151
  173
  196
  220
  245
  272
  299
  327
  357
  388
  420
  453
  488
  524
  562
  601
  642
  685
  729
  776
  824
  875
  928
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  42
  57
  73
  91
  109
  129
  150
  172
  195
  219
  244
  270
  298
  326
  356
  386
  418
  452
  486
  522
  560
  599
  640
  682
  727
  773
  821
  872
  925
  980
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  27
  41
  56
  72
  90
  108
  128
  149
  171
  194
  218
  243
  269
  297
  325
  355
  385
  417
  451
  485
  522
  559
  598
  639
  682
  726
  773
  821
  872
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  14
  25
  36
  46
  56
  65
  73
  80
  86
  90
  92
  93
  92
  90
  87
  83
  77
  71
  64
  57
  50
  43
  37
  30
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Investors Title Company is an insurance holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Investors Title Insurance Company (ITIC) and National Investors Title Insurance Company (NITIC), is engaged in issuance of residential and commercial title insurance, Investors Title Insurance Company (ITIC) and National Investors Title Insurance Company (NITIC). The Company also provides tax-deferred real property exchange services through its subsidiaries, Investors Title Exchange Corporation (ITEC) and Investors Title Accommodation Corporation (ITAC); investment management and trust services to individuals, trusts and other entities through its subsidiary, Investors Trust Company (Investors Trust), and management services to title insurance agencies through its subsidiary, Investors Title Management Services (ITMS). In addition, the Company operates in the issuance of residential and commercial title insurance through ITIC and NITIC segment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Investors Title (ITIC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 13.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Equity 13.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 21.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Operating Margin 20.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Net Profit Margin 14.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Effective Tax Rate 28.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
Payout Ratio 5%

ITIC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ITIC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $138 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Investors Title. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Investors Title. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ITIC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ITIC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Investors Title, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Investors Title.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ITIC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $89 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ITIC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Investors Title.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Investors Title. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ITIC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ITIC are equal to 10.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Investors Title operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ITIC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $155 million for Investors Title - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1.88 million for Investors Title is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Investors Title at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Investors Title Company Board Increases Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-16-17 12:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Investors Title posts 2Q profit   [Aug-04-17 11:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Under-The-Radar IPO Stock Clears New Buy Zone   [May-25-17 12:20PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Investors Title Co. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 01:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investors Title Company Board Increases Quarterly Dividend   [May-17-17 05:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ Investors Title posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 08:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Investors Title Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-28-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Investors Title posts 4Q profit   [Feb-09-17 08:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (USA) (NAK) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-17-16 04:35PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Investors Title Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-15-16 04:35PM  Business Wire]
▶ Investors Title Company Board Increases Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-10-16 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Investors Title Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-18-16 04:50PM  Business Wire]
▶ The best-run public companies in the Research Triangle area   [Apr-15-16 03:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Investors Title Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-29-16 04:31PM  Business Wire]
▶ Investors Title Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-12  09:18AM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Investors Title Co.   [Aug-09  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Investors Title Co.   [May-09  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Investors Title Co.   [May-05  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Investors Title Company Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-09  05:32PM  Business Wire]
▶ Press Release - Quarterly Dividends   [Dec-02  12:00PM  at noodls]
Financial statements of ITIC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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