Intrinsic value of Invesco Mortgage Capital - IVR

Previous Close

$17.10

  Intrinsic Value

$4.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-71%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$17.10

 
Intrinsic value

$4.95

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as IVR.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IVR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.31
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  479
  489
  500
  513
  527
  543
  561
  580
  600
  623
  647
  672
  699
  728
  759
  792
  827
  863
  902
  943
  987
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,185
  1,242
  1,301
  1,363
  1,429
  1,498
  1,571
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  250
  255
  262
  269
  278
  286
  296
  307
  318
  330
  343
  357
  372
  388
  405
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  528
  552
  578
  606
  634
  665
  697
  730
  766
  803
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  199
  250
  255
  262
  269
  278
  286
  296
  307
  318
  330
  343
  357
  372
  388
  405
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  528
  552
  578
  606
  634
  665
  697
  730
  766
  803
Operating income, $m
  280
  239
  244
  251
  258
  266
  274
  283
  294
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  505
  528
  553
  580
  607
  636
  667
  699
  733
  768
EBITDA, $m
  280
  239
  244
  251
  258
  266
  274
  283
  294
  304
  316
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  483
  505
  528
  553
  580
  607
  636
  667
  699
  733
  768
Interest expense (income), $m
  147
  457
  463
  474
  487
  500
  516
  533
  551
  571
  593
  616
  641
  667
  695
  725
  756
  790
  826
  863
  903
  945
  989
  1,035
  1,085
  1,136
  1,191
  1,248
  1,309
  1,372
  1,439
Earnings before tax, $m
  258
  -218
  -219
  -223
  -229
  -235
  -242
  -249
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -671
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  254
  -218
  -219
  -223
  -229
  -235
  -242
  -249
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -671

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  162
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  15,706
  15,761
  16,123
  16,538
  17,003
  17,518
  18,084
  18,700
  19,366
  20,085
  20,855
  21,680
  22,560
  23,497
  24,492
  25,549
  26,668
  27,854
  29,107
  30,431
  31,829
  33,305
  34,861
  36,501
  38,229
  40,049
  41,965
  43,982
  46,104
  48,337
  50,686
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  15,544
  15,761
  16,123
  16,538
  17,003
  17,518
  18,084
  18,700
  19,366
  20,085
  20,855
  21,680
  22,560
  23,497
  24,492
  25,549
  26,668
  27,854
  29,107
  30,431
  31,829
  33,305
  34,861
  36,501
  38,229
  40,049
  41,965
  43,982
  46,104
  48,337
  50,686
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
  0.031
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  244
  250
  256
  264
  272
  280
  290
  300
  311
  323
  336
  350
  364
  380
  396
  413
  432
  451
  472
  493
  516
  540
  566
  593
  621
  650
  682
  715
  749
  786
Total debt, $m
  13,208
  13,235
  13,545
  13,900
  14,298
  14,740
  15,224
  15,751
  16,322
  16,936
  17,596
  18,302
  19,055
  19,857
  20,709
  21,614
  22,572
  23,587
  24,660
  25,793
  26,990
  28,253
  29,585
  30,989
  32,468
  34,026
  35,666
  37,392
  39,209
  41,121
  43,131
Total liabilities, $m
  13,465
  13,491
  13,801
  14,156
  14,554
  14,996
  15,480
  16,007
  16,578
  17,192
  17,852
  18,558
  19,311
  20,113
  20,965
  21,870
  22,828
  23,843
  24,916
  26,049
  27,246
  28,509
  29,841
  31,245
  32,724
  34,282
  35,922
  37,648
  39,465
  41,377
  43,387
Total equity, $m
  2,242
  2,270
  2,322
  2,381
  2,448
  2,523
  2,604
  2,693
  2,789
  2,892
  3,003
  3,122
  3,249
  3,384
  3,527
  3,679
  3,840
  4,011
  4,191
  4,382
  4,583
  4,796
  5,020
  5,256
  5,505
  5,767
  6,043
  6,333
  6,639
  6,961
  7,299
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  15,707
  15,761
  16,123
  16,537
  17,002
  17,519
  18,084
  18,700
  19,367
  20,084
  20,855
  21,680
  22,560
  23,497
  24,492
  25,549
  26,668
  27,854
  29,107
  30,431
  31,829
  33,305
  34,861
  36,501
  38,229
  40,049
  41,965
  43,981
  46,104
  48,338
  50,686
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.891
  5.830
  5.830
  5.840
  5.840
  5.840
  5.850
  5.850
  5.850
  5.860
  5.860
  5.860
  5.870
  5.870
  5.870
  5.870
  5.880
  5.880
  5.880
  5.890
  5.890
  5.890
  5.890
  5.900
  5.900
  5.900
  5.900
  5.900
  5.910
  5.910
  5.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144
  0.144

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  254
  -218
  -219
  -223
  -229
  -235
  -242
  -249
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -671
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  331
  -218
  -219
  -223
  -229
  -235
  -242
  -249
  -258
  -267
  -277
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -402
  -420
  -440
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -671
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  330
  -222
  -224
  -230
  -236
  -243
  -251
  -259
  -268
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -404
  -422
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -532
  -557
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -674
  -707
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  949
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  1,279
  -222
  -224
  -230
  -236
  -243
  -251
  -259
  -268
  -278
  -289
  -300
  -312
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -404
  -422
  -442
  -463
  -485
  -508
  -532
  -557
  -584
  -613
  -643
  -674
  -707
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -967
  189
  310
  355
  398
  441
  484
  527
  571
  615
  660
  706
  753
  802
  852
  904
  958
  1,015
  1,073
  1,134
  1,197
  1,263
  1,332
  1,404
  1,479
  1,558
  1,640
  1,726
  1,817
  1,911
  2,010
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -25
  245
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  446
  467
  490
  513
  538
  565
  592
  622
  652
  684
  718
  754
  791
  831
  872
  915
  961
  1,009
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -966
  434
  581
  638
  694
  750
  807
  865
  925
  985
  1,048
  1,112
  1,178
  1,248
  1,319
  1,394
  1,471
  1,553
  1,638
  1,726
  1,819
  1,915
  2,016
  2,122
  2,233
  2,349
  2,471
  2,598
  2,732
  2,872
  3,019
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  313
  212
  357
  408
  458
  507
  557
  606
  656
  707
  759
  812
  866
  922
  980
  1,040
  1,102
  1,167
  1,234
  1,304
  1,377
  1,453
  1,532
  1,615
  1,701
  1,792
  1,886
  1,986
  2,089
  2,198
  2,312
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -245
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -370
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -446
  -467
  -490
  -513
  -538
  -565
  -592
  -622
  -652
  -684
  -718
  -754
  -791
  -831
  -872
  -915
  -961
  -1,009
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -33
  86
  125
  162
  198
  234
  268
  303
  337
  371
  406
  441
  477
  513
  550
  589
  628
  669
  711
  755
  800
  847
  896
  947
  1,000
  1,056
  1,114
  1,174
  1,237
  1,303
Discount rate, %
 
  13.60
  14.28
  14.99
  15.74
  16.53
  17.36
  18.23
  19.14
  20.09
  21.10
  22.15
  23.26
  24.42
  25.64
  26.93
  28.27
  29.69
  31.17
  32.73
  34.37
  36.08
  37.89
  39.78
  41.77
  43.86
  46.05
  48.36
  50.78
  53.31
  55.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -29
  66
  82
  90
  92
  89
  83
  75
  65
  55
  45
  36
  28
  21
  15
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  88.8
  78.0
  68.4
  59.8
  52.1
  45.4
  39.5
  34.3
  29.7
  25.7
  22.2
  19.2
  16.6
  14.3
  12.3
  10.6
  9.1
  7.8
  6.7
  5.8
  5.0
  4.3
  3.7
  3.1
  2.7
  2.3
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5
  1.2

Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc., a real estate investment trust, focuses on investing in, financing, and managing residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities and mortgage loans. It invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) that are guaranteed by a U.S. government agency or a federally chartered corporation; RMBS that are not issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government agency; commercial mortgage-backed securities; residential and commercial mortgage loans; and other real estate-related financing arrangements. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust. As a result, it would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Invesco Mortgage Capital (IVR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.5
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 91.3%
Total Debt to Equity 589.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55%
EBITDA Margin 84.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.6%
Operating Margin 58.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 53.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Net Profit Margin 53%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 80.3%

IVR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IVR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $479 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Invesco Mortgage Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Invesco Mortgage Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IVR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.6%, whose default value for IVR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Invesco Mortgage Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Invesco Mortgage Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IVR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IVR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Invesco Mortgage Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Invesco Mortgage Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IVR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IVR are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Invesco Mortgage Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IVR is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2242 million for Invesco Mortgage Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.329 million for Invesco Mortgage Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Invesco Mortgage Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Invesco Mortgage Capital posts 2Q profit   [12:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Invesco Mortgage Capital posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Income-REIT New Residential Investment Looks Worth It   [Apr-12-17 04:43PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Invesco Mortgage Capital posts 4Q profit   [Feb-21-17 06:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ What This Metric Says about Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc (IVR)?   [Dec-10-16 05:41PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mortgage REITs Look Better as Yield Curve Steepens: 5 Picks   [Nov-28-16 05:30PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Invesco Mortgage Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Thursday (IVR)   [Jun-23-16 04:30PM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of IVR Financial statements of IVR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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