Intrinsic value of IXYS - IXYS

Previous Close

$16.10

  Intrinsic Value

$13.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-18%

  Value-price divergence*

+283%

Previous close

$16.10

 
Intrinsic value

$13.28

 
Up/down potential

-18%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+283%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of IXYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.49
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  317
  334
  351
  370
  389
  409
  431
  453
  476
  500
  526
  553
  581
  611
  642
  674
  708
  744
  782
  821
  862
  906
  951
  999
  1,050
  1,102
  1,158
  1,216
  1,277
  1,341
  1,408
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
  410
  431
  452
  475
  495
  520
  547
  575
  604
  634
  666
  700
  735
  773
  811
  852
  895
  940
  987
  1,037
  1,089
  1,144
  1,201
  1,261
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  291
  306
  322
  338
  356
  374
  393
  414
  435
  456
  479
  499
  524
  551
  579
  608
  638
  671
  705
  740
  778
  816
  857
  900
  945
  993
  1,043
  1,095
  1,150
  1,207
  1,267
Operating income, $m
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
EBITDA, $m
  40
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  147
  154
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
Tax expense, $m
  8
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Net income, $m
  15
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  156
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  423
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  381
  401
  422
  443
  466
  490
  514
  541
  568
  597
  627
  658
  692
  727
  763
  802
  842
  884
  929
  975
  1,024
  1,076
  1,130
  1,186
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  345
  363
  381
  401
  422
  443
  466
  490
  514
  541
  568
  597
  627
  658
  692
  727
  763
  802
  842
  884
  929
  975
  1,024
  1,076
  1,130
  1,186
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.187
  1.189
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.186
  1.187
  1.189
  1.187
  1.185
  1.187
  1.187
  1.186
  1.189
  1.187
  1.187
  1.186
  1.187
  1.188
  1.186
  1.186
  1.187
  1.186
  1.186
  1.188
  1.186
  1.188
  1.188
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
Average production assets, $m
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
Working capital, $m
  253
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  181
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
  344
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
Total debt, $m
  87
  93
  100
  109
  117
  126
  136
  146
  156
  167
  179
  191
  203
  217
  231
  245
  260
  276
  293
  311
  330
  349
  369
  391
  413
  437
  462
  488
  515
  544
  574
Total liabilities, $m
  143
  150
  157
  166
  174
  183
  193
  203
  213
  224
  236
  248
  260
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
  350
  368
  387
  406
  426
  448
  470
  494
  519
  545
  572
  601
  631
Total equity, $m
  279
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  456
  479
  503
  529
  555
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  422
  282
  296
  312
  327
  344
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  466
  489
  515
  541
  568
  596
  626
  658
  692
  727
  763
  801
  842
  884
  929
  975
  1,024
  1,075
  1,130
  1,186
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.312
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.820
  0.830
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.461
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  30
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
Free cash flow, $m
  8
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  35
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  31
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  40
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  88
  92
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  170
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  163
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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IXYS Corporation, an integrated semiconductor company, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets semiconductor products worldwide. It provides power semiconductors, including power metal-oxide-silicon field-effect transistors (MOSFETs), insulated-gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs), rectifiers, thyristors, and fast-recovery epitaxial diodes to control electricity in power conversion systems, motor drives, medical electronics, and renewable energy sources. The company also offers integrated circuits (ICs) comprising microcontrollers to control electronic devices, such as remote controllers, motors, and user interfaces on appliances; solid-state relays that isolate the low current communication signal from the higher power circuit; line card access switch and data access arrangements integrated products; analog and mixed-signal application specific ICs; and power management and control ICs, such as current regulators, motion controllers, digital power modulators, and drivers for power MOSFETs and IGBTs. In addition, it provides radio frequency power semiconductors consisting of field-effect transistors, pseudomorphic-high-electron-mobility transistors, Gunn diodes, and monolithic microwave integrated circuits that enable the amplification or reception of radio frequencies in telecommunication, industrial, defense, and space applications; and systems and other products that comprise laser diode drivers, high voltage pulse generators and modulators, and high power subsystems. The company markets and sells its products through direct sales personnel, independent representatives, and distributors. IXYS Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Milpitas, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  IXYS (IXYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.7
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 22
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 78
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.5%
Total Debt to Equity 31.2%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Equity 5.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 34.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 33.3%

IXYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the IXYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $317 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by IXYS. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of IXYS. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our IXYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for IXYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of IXYS, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of IXYS.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of IXYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for IXYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for IXYS.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for IXYS. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the IXYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for IXYS are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in IXYS operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for IXYS is equal to 31.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $279 million for IXYS - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.5 million for IXYS is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of IXYS at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to IXYS Corp. : August 18, 2017   [Aug-18-17 05:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IXYS Introduces the IXRFD615 Ultrafast RF MOSFET Driver   [Aug-15-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ IXYS posts 1Q profit   [12:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ IXYS Corporation Reports Results for the June 2017 Quarter   [Aug-02-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IXYS Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IXYS Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:15PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IXYS Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IXYS posts 4Q profit   [Jun-02-17 08:55AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to IXYS Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ IXYS posts 3Q profit   [Feb-02-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ IXYS to Participate in 19th Annual Needham Conference   [Jan-04-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About IXYS Corporation (IXYS)   [Dec-10-16 10:13AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 6 ways to invest in the drone revolution   [Aug-31-16 08:06AM  at MarketWatch]
Stock chart of IXYS Financial statements of IXYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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