Intrinsic value of Jack in the Box - JACK

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$100.80

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$100.80

 
Intrinsic value

$19.16

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JACK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.83
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  1,599
  1,657
  1,719
  1,785
  1,856
  1,932
  2,012
  2,098
  2,189
  2,285
  2,387
  2,495
  2,608
  2,729
  2,855
  2,989
  3,130
  3,278
  3,434
  3,599
  3,772
  3,954
  4,146
  4,347
  4,559
  4,782
  5,017
  5,263
  5,522
  5,794
  6,080
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  730
  757
  785
  816
  848
  883
  920
  959
  1,001
  1,044
  1,074
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,287
  1,348
  1,412
  1,479
  1,550
  1,624
  1,703
  1,785
  1,872
  1,963
  2,059
  2,160
  2,266
  2,378
  2,495
  2,618
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  698
  715
  733
  752
  770
  790
  809
  830
  850
  872
  894
  916
  939
  962
  986
  1,011
  1,036
  1,062
  1,089
  1,116
  1,144
  1,172
  1,202
  1,232
  1,263
  1,294
  1,326
  1,360
  1,394
  1,428
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,369
  1,428
  1,472
  1,518
  1,568
  1,618
  1,673
  1,729
  1,789
  1,851
  1,916
  1,968
  2,039
  2,114
  2,192
  2,273
  2,359
  2,448
  2,541
  2,639
  2,740
  2,847
  2,957
  3,074
  3,195
  3,322
  3,454
  3,592
  3,738
  3,889
  4,046
Operating income, $m
  230
  229
  246
  266
  288
  313
  339
  368
  400
  434
  471
  527
  569
  615
  663
  716
  771
  830
  893
  960
  1,032
  1,108
  1,188
  1,274
  1,364
  1,460
  1,562
  1,670
  1,784
  1,905
  2,033
EBITDA, $m
  323
  325
  346
  369
  394
  422
  453
  486
  522
  561
  602
  647
  695
  746
  801
  859
  922
  988
  1,059
  1,134
  1,213
  1,298
  1,388
  1,483
  1,584
  1,691
  1,804
  1,923
  2,050
  2,184
  2,326
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  34
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  118
  124
  132
Earnings before tax, $m
  199
  195
  223
  241
  262
  284
  309
  336
  365
  397
  431
  484
  524
  567
  612
  661
  713
  768
  828
  891
  958
  1,029
  1,105
  1,185
  1,271
  1,361
  1,457
  1,559
  1,667
  1,781
  1,902
Tax expense, $m
  73
  53
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  91
  99
  107
  116
  131
  141
  153
  165
  178
  192
  207
  223
  240
  259
  278
  298
  320
  343
  367
  393
  421
  450
  481
  513
Net income, $m
  124
  142
  163
  176
  191
  207
  225
  245
  266
  290
  315
  354
  383
  414
  447
  482
  520
  561
  604
  650
  699
  751
  806
  865
  927
  994
  1,064
  1,138
  1,217
  1,300
  1,388

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,345
  1,376
  1,427
  1,483
  1,542
  1,604
  1,671
  1,743
  1,818
  1,898
  1,983
  2,072
  2,166
  2,266
  2,371
  2,482
  2,599
  2,723
  2,852
  2,989
  3,133
  3,284
  3,443
  3,611
  3,787
  3,972
  4,167
  4,371
  4,586
  4,812
  5,049
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,328
  1,376
  1,427
  1,483
  1,542
  1,604
  1,671
  1,743
  1,818
  1,898
  1,983
  2,072
  2,166
  2,266
  2,371
  2,482
  2,599
  2,723
  2,852
  2,989
  3,133
  3,284
  3,443
  3,611
  3,787
  3,972
  4,167
  4,371
  4,586
  4,812
  5,049
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.204
  1.204
  1.205
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
  1.204
Average production assets, $m
  738
  765
  794
  825
  857
  892
  930
  969
  1,011
  1,056
  1,103
  1,153
  1,205
  1,261
  1,319
  1,381
  1,446
  1,514
  1,587
  1,663
  1,743
  1,827
  1,915
  2,008
  2,106
  2,209
  2,318
  2,431
  2,551
  2,677
  2,809
Working capital, $m
  -123
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -322
Total debt, $m
  991
  667
  714
  763
  816
  873
  933
  997
  1,065
  1,137
  1,213
  1,294
  1,379
  1,469
  1,563
  1,663
  1,768
  1,879
  1,996
  2,119
  2,249
  2,385
  2,528
  2,679
  2,837
  3,004
  3,179
  3,363
  3,556
  3,760
  3,974
Total liabilities, $m
  1,562
  1,238
  1,285
  1,334
  1,387
  1,444
  1,504
  1,568
  1,636
  1,708
  1,784
  1,865
  1,950
  2,040
  2,134
  2,234
  2,339
  2,450
  2,567
  2,690
  2,820
  2,956
  3,099
  3,250
  3,408
  3,575
  3,750
  3,934
  4,127
  4,331
  4,545
Total equity, $m
  -217
  138
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  437
  459
  481
  505
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,345
  1,376
  1,428
  1,482
  1,541
  1,604
  1,671
  1,742
  1,818
  1,898
  1,982
  2,072
  2,167
  2,267
  2,371
  2,482
  2,599
  2,722
  2,852
  2,989
  3,133
  3,284
  3,443
  3,611
  3,787
  3,972
  4,167
  4,371
  4,586
  4,812
  5,050
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -4.567
  4.850
  5.000
  5.150
  5.300
  5.440
  5.580
  5.720
  5.860
  5.990
  6.120
  6.240
  6.360
  6.480
  6.590
  6.700
  6.800
  6.900
  7.000
  7.090
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
  7.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.176
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  124
  142
  163
  176
  191
  207
  225
  245
  266
  290
  315
  354
  383
  414
  447
  482
  520
  561
  604
  650
  699
  751
  806
  865
  927
  994
  1,064
  1,138
  1,217
  1,300
  1,388
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  113
  118
  122
  127
  131
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  238
  262
  279
  297
  317
  339
  363
  388
  416
  446
  474
  508
  545
  584
  626
  671
  719
  769
  823
  881
  941
  1,006
  1,074
  1,147
  1,224
  1,305
  1,391
  1,482
  1,579
  1,681
Change in working capital, $m
  -139
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  134
  236
  265
  282
  301
  321
  343
  367
  393
  421
  451
  479
  514
  551
  591
  633
  678
  727
  778
  832
  890
  951
  1,016
  1,085
  1,158
  1,236
  1,318
  1,404
  1,496
  1,593
  1,696
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
New CAPEX, $m
  -106
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -104
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -355
  -373
  -392
  -411
Free cash flow, $m
  30
  132
  157
  169
  182
  197
  213
  231
  250
  271
  294
  315
  341
  370
  401
  434
  470
  507
  548
  591
  637
  685
  737
  792
  851
  913
  979
  1,049
  1,123
  1,202
  1,285
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  279
  -307
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -274
  529
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  222
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  151
  158
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  214
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  39
  -175
  203
  218
  235
  253
  273
  295
  318
  343
  371
  395
  427
  460
  496
  534
  575
  618
  665
  714
  766
  822
  881
  943
  1,009
  1,080
  1,154
  1,233
  1,317
  1,405
  1,499
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  233
  -355
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  198
  213
  229
  247
  267
  288
  311
  335
  362
  386
  417
  450
  485
  523
  563
  606
  652
  700
  752
  806
  865
  926
  992
  1,061
  1,135
  1,213
  1,295
  1,383
  1,475
Discount rate, %
 
  12.30
  12.92
  13.56
  14.24
  14.95
  15.70
  16.48
  17.31
  18.17
  19.08
  20.04
  21.04
  22.09
  23.19
  24.35
  25.57
  26.85
  28.19
  29.60
  31.08
  32.64
  34.27
  35.98
  37.78
  39.67
  41.65
  43.73
  45.92
  48.22
  50.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  155
  145
  135
  123
  111
  99
  87
  75
  63
  52
  42
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Jack in the Box Inc. operates and franchises Jack in the Box quick-service restaurants and Qdoba Mexican Eats fast-casual restaurants primarily in the United States. As of October 02, 2016, it operated and franchised approximately 2,255 Jack in the Box restaurants in 21 states and Guam; and approximately 699 Qdoba Mexican Eats restaurants in 47 states, the District of Columbia, and Canada. The company was founded in 1951 and is based in San Diego, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jack in the Box (JACK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.3
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book -15.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 116.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -430.9%
Total Debt to Equity -456.7%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Total Capital 16.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Return On Equity -123.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.1%
EBITDA Margin 20.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Net Profit Margin 7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Payout Ratio 32.3%

JACK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JACK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1599 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jack in the Box. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Jack in the Box. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JACK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.3%, whose default value for JACK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jack in the Box, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jack in the Box.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JACK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $681 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JACK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Jack in the Box.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jack in the Box. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JACK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JACK are equal to 46.2%.

Life of production assets of 9.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jack in the Box operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JACK is equal to -5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-217 million for Jack in the Box - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.656 million for Jack in the Box is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jack in the Box at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.


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Stock chart of JACK Financial statements of JACK Annual reports of JACK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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