Intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific - JAKK

Previous Close

$3.40

  Intrinsic Value

$6.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+94%

Previous close

$3.40

 
Intrinsic value

$6.59

 
Up/down potential

+94%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of JAKK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  707
  721
  738
  757
  778
  802
  827
  856
  886
  919
  954
  992
  1,032
  1,075
  1,121
  1,169
  1,220
  1,274
  1,332
  1,392
  1,456
  1,524
  1,595
  1,670
  1,749
  1,832
  1,920
  2,012
  2,110
  2,212
  2,319
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  370
  378
  388
  399
  411
  424
  438
  453
  470
  488
  503
  523
  545
  568
  593
  619
  646
  675
  706
  738
  772
  809
  847
  887
  929
  973
  1,020
  1,069
  1,121
  1,176
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  343
  352
  361
  370
  379
  388
  398
  408
  418
  429
  440
  451
  462
  473
  485
  497
  510
  522
  536
  549
  563
  577
  591
  606
  621
  637
  653
  669
  686
  703
Total operating expenses, $m
  690
  713
  730
  749
  769
  790
  812
  836
  861
  888
  917
  943
  974
  1,007
  1,041
  1,078
  1,116
  1,156
  1,197
  1,242
  1,287
  1,335
  1,386
  1,438
  1,493
  1,550
  1,610
  1,673
  1,738
  1,807
  1,879
Operating income, $m
  17
  8
  8
  8
  10
  12
  15
  19
  24
  30
  37
  50
  58
  68
  79
  91
  104
  119
  134
  151
  169
  189
  210
  232
  257
  282
  310
  340
  371
  405
  441
EBITDA, $m
  40
  24
  24
  25
  27
  30
  34
  38
  44
  50
  58
  66
  76
  87
  98
  111
  125
  140
  157
  175
  194
  215
  237
  261
  286
  314
  343
  374
  407
  443
  480
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
Earnings before tax, $m
  5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  1
  4
  7
  12
  17
  23
  35
  43
  52
  62
  73
  85
  98
  113
  128
  145
  163
  183
  204
  227
  251
  277
  304
  334
  366
  399
Tax expense, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  9
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  99
  108
Net income, $m
  1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  5
  9
  12
  17
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  72
  82
  94
  106
  119
  133
  149
  165
  183
  202
  222
  244
  267
  291

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  86
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  464
  386
  395
  405
  416
  429
  442
  458
  474
  491
  510
  530
  552
  575
  599
  625
  653
  682
  712
  745
  779
  815
  853
  893
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,183
  1,240
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  378
  386
  395
  405
  416
  429
  442
  458
  474
  491
  510
  530
  552
  575
  599
  625
  653
  682
  712
  745
  779
  815
  853
  893
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,183
  1,240
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.870
  1.868
  1.868
  1.869
  1.870
  1.869
  1.871
  1.869
  1.869
  1.872
  1.871
  1.872
  1.870
  1.870
  1.871
  1.870
  1.868
  1.868
  1.871
  1.868
  1.869
  1.870
  1.870
  1.870
  1.871
  1.869
  1.870
  1.870
  1.871
  1.870
  1.870
Average production assets, $m
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
Working capital, $m
  236
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
Total debt, $m
  213
  210
  217
  226
  235
  246
  258
  271
  284
  299
  315
  332
  351
  370
  391
  412
  436
  460
  486
  514
  543
  573
  605
  639
  675
  713
  753
  795
  838
  885
  933
Total liabilities, $m
  330
  327
  334
  343
  352
  363
  375
  388
  401
  416
  432
  449
  468
  487
  508
  529
  553
  577
  603
  631
  660
  690
  722
  756
  792
  830
  870
  912
  955
  1,002
  1,050
Total equity, $m
  134
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  464
  386
  394
  405
  416
  429
  443
  458
  474
  491
  510
  530
  552
  575
  600
  625
  653
  681
  712
  745
  779
  815
  853
  893
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,077
  1,128
  1,183
  1,240
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.590
  3.550
  3.600
  3.650
  3.700
  3.750
  3.810
  3.860
  3.920
  3.980
  4.040
  4.090
  4.150
  4.210
  4.260
  4.310
  4.360
  4.410
  4.460
  4.510
  4.550
  4.600
  4.640
  4.680
  4.720
  4.760
  4.790
  4.830
  4.860
  4.890
  4.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153
  0.153

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  5
  9
  12
  17
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  72
  82
  94
  106
  119
  133
  149
  165
  183
  202
  222
  244
  267
  291
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  15
  14
  15
  16
  19
  21
  24
  28
  32
  38
  42
  49
  56
  64
  73
  83
  93
  105
  117
  131
  145
  161
  177
  195
  214
  235
  256
  280
  304
  331
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  17
  12
  11
  11
  12
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  30
  34
  40
  46
  54
  62
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  130
  144
  160
  177
  195
  215
  236
  258
  281
  307
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  1
  4
  7
  11
  14
  19
  25
  32
  39
  47
  56
  65
  76
  87
  99
  113
  127
  142
  159
  176
  195
  215
  237
  260
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -14
  3
  4
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  10
  12
  13
  13
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  31
  38
  45
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  103
  116
  130
  145
  161
  178
  196
  216
  237
  259
  283
  309
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  19
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  76
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  81
  5
  5
  7
  8
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  28
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  76
  87
  98
  111
  124
  139
  155
  171
  189
  209
  229
  251
  275
  300
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  76
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.9
  86.2
  79.2
  74.4
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2
  72.2

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. is a multi-line, multi-brand toy company. The Company designs, produces, markets and distributes toys and related products, pet toys, consumables and related products, electronics and related products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, and other consumer products. The Company operates through two business segments: traditional toys and electronics, and role play, novelty and seasonal toys. The traditional toys and electronics segment includes action figures, vehicles, playsets, plush products, dolls, accessories, electronic products, construction toys, infant and pre-school toys, foot to floor ride-on vehicles, wagons and pet products and related products. The role play, novelty and seasonal segment includes role play and dress-up products, novelty toys, seasonal and outdoor products, indoor and outdoor kids' furniture and Halloween and everyday costume play.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  JAKKS Pacific (JAKK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 65.9
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 151.5%
Total Debt to Equity 159%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 31.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 5.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Operating Margin 2.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 80%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

JAKK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JAKK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $707 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by JAKKS Pacific. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of JAKKS Pacific. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JAKK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for JAKK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of JAKKS Pacific, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of JAKKS Pacific.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JAKK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 51.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $335 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JAKK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for JAKKS Pacific.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for JAKKS Pacific. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JAKK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JAKK are equal to 8.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in JAKKS Pacific operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JAKK is equal to 22.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $134 million for JAKKS Pacific - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.988 million for JAKKS Pacific is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of JAKKS Pacific at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
MAT Mattel 15.97 17.63  hold
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call   [Oct-12-17 01:38PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jakks Pacific signs master toy agreement for Disney Pixars Incredibles 2   [Sep-27-17 03:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jakks Pacific expecting 2017 loss due to Toys R Us bankruptcy   [Sep-21-17 02:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Toys 'R' Us Finally Filed for Bankruptcy   [Sep-19-17 05:04PM  Zacks]
▶ Glum Season For Toy Makers   [Sep-05-17 11:12AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Jakks reports 2Q loss   [Jul-25-17 04:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call   [Jul-12-17 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Signs Exclusive Licensing Deal for Chicco   [Jul-10-17 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to JAKKS Pacific, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 03:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Jefferies on Toy Stocks: Hasbro's Got Game   [Jun-09-17 01:21PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to JAKKS Pacific, Inc. : May 30, 2017   [May-30-17 12:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to JAKKS Pacific, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Jakks reports 1Q loss   [Apr-25-17 06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call   [Apr-11-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Jakks Pacific Beats 4Q Estimates   [08:28AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Launches Cuppatinis Toys, Webisodes and App   [Jan-17-17 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK)   [Dec-10-16 03:55PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ JAKKS Pacific Announces Dismissal of Class Action   [Nov-22-16 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Can Sears Holdings Survive This Latest Setback?   [Nov-16-16 08:10AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of JAKK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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