Intrinsic value of John Bean Technologies - JBT

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$88.25

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$88.25

 
Intrinsic value

$56.33

 
Up/down potential

-36%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JBT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.04
  14.40
  13.46
  12.61
  11.85
  11.17
  10.55
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.65
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  1,351
  1,546
  1,754
  1,975
  2,209
  2,455
  2,715
  2,986
  3,269
  3,565
  3,873
  4,194
  4,527
  4,874
  5,234
  5,608
  5,997
  6,402
  6,822
  7,259
  7,715
  8,188
  8,682
  9,197
  9,733
  10,293
  10,877
  11,487
  12,124
  12,790
  13,486
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,417
  1,604
  1,804
  2,015
  2,237
  2,470
  2,715
  2,971
  3,237
  3,515
  3,780
  4,080
  4,393
  4,717
  5,054
  5,405
  5,769
  6,148
  6,542
  6,953
  7,380
  7,825
  8,288
  8,772
  9,276
  9,802
  10,352
  10,926
  11,526
  12,154
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,247
  1,417
  1,604
  1,804
  2,015
  2,237
  2,470
  2,715
  2,971
  3,237
  3,515
  3,780
  4,080
  4,393
  4,717
  5,054
  5,405
  5,769
  6,148
  6,542
  6,953
  7,380
  7,825
  8,288
  8,772
  9,276
  9,802
  10,352
  10,926
  11,526
  12,154
Operating income, $m
  103
  129
  149
  171
  194
  219
  244
  271
  299
  328
  359
  414
  447
  481
  517
  554
  592
  632
  674
  717
  762
  809
  857
  908
  961
  1,017
  1,074
  1,134
  1,197
  1,263
  1,332
EBITDA, $m
  141
  180
  204
  230
  257
  286
  316
  347
  380
  415
  451
  488
  527
  567
  609
  653
  698
  745
  794
  845
  898
  953
  1,010
  1,070
  1,133
  1,198
  1,266
  1,337
  1,411
  1,488
  1,569
Interest expense (income), $m
  10
  17
  22
  28
  33
  39
  46
  53
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  221
  234
  249
  264
  280
  296
  314
Earnings before tax, $m
  94
  111
  127
  143
  161
  179
  198
  218
  239
  261
  284
  332
  356
  382
  408
  436
  465
  495
  526
  558
  592
  627
  663
  701
  741
  782
  825
  870
  918
  967
  1,018
Tax expense, $m
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  125
  134
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  189
  200
  211
  223
  235
  248
  261
  275
Net income, $m
  68
  81
  93
  105
  117
  131
  145
  159
  175
  191
  207
  242
  260
  279
  298
  318
  339
  361
  384
  407
  432
  457
  484
  512
  541
  571
  602
  635
  670
  706
  743

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,187
  1,320
  1,498
  1,686
  1,886
  2,097
  2,318
  2,550
  2,792
  3,045
  3,308
  3,581
  3,866
  4,162
  4,470
  4,789
  5,121
  5,467
  5,826
  6,199
  6,588
  6,993
  7,414
  7,854
  8,312
  8,790
  9,288
  9,809
  10,353
  10,922
  11,516
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,154
  1,320
  1,498
  1,686
  1,886
  2,097
  2,318
  2,550
  2,792
  3,045
  3,308
  3,581
  3,866
  4,162
  4,470
  4,789
  5,121
  5,467
  5,826
  6,199
  6,588
  6,993
  7,414
  7,854
  8,312
  8,790
  9,288
  9,809
  10,353
  10,922
  11,516
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
  1.171
Average production assets, $m
  328
  376
  426
  480
  537
  597
  660
  726
  794
  866
  941
  1,019
  1,100
  1,184
  1,272
  1,363
  1,457
  1,556
  1,658
  1,764
  1,875
  1,990
  2,110
  2,235
  2,365
  2,501
  2,643
  2,791
  2,946
  3,108
  3,277
Working capital, $m
  92
  76
  86
  97
  108
  120
  133
  146
  160
  175
  190
  206
  222
  239
  256
  275
  294
  314
  334
  356
  378
  401
  425
  451
  477
  504
  533
  563
  594
  627
  661
Total debt, $m
  499
  636
  790
  954
  1,127
  1,310
  1,502
  1,703
  1,913
  2,132
  2,360
  2,597
  2,844
  3,101
  3,367
  3,644
  3,932
  4,232
  4,543
  4,867
  5,204
  5,555
  5,920
  6,301
  6,698
  7,113
  7,545
  7,997
  8,468
  8,961
  9,477
Total liabilities, $m
  1,008
  1,144
  1,298
  1,462
  1,635
  1,818
  2,010
  2,211
  2,421
  2,640
  2,868
  3,105
  3,352
  3,609
  3,875
  4,152
  4,440
  4,740
  5,051
  5,375
  5,712
  6,063
  6,428
  6,809
  7,206
  7,621
  8,053
  8,505
  8,976
  9,469
  9,985
Total equity, $m
  180
  176
  199
  224
  251
  279
  308
  339
  371
  405
  440
  476
  514
  554
  594
  637
  681
  727
  775
  825
  876
  930
  986
  1,045
  1,105
  1,169
  1,235
  1,305
  1,377
  1,453
  1,532
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,188
  1,320
  1,497
  1,686
  1,886
  2,097
  2,318
  2,550
  2,792
  3,045
  3,308
  3,581
  3,866
  4,163
  4,469
  4,789
  5,121
  5,467
  5,826
  6,200
  6,588
  6,993
  7,414
  7,854
  8,311
  8,790
  9,288
  9,810
  10,353
  10,922
  11,517
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.772
  3.620
  3.970
  4.250
  4.490
  4.700
  4.870
  5.020
  5.150
  5.260
  5.360
  5.450
  5.530
  5.600
  5.660
  5.720
  5.770
  5.820
  5.860
  5.900
  5.940
  5.970
  6.000
  6.030
  6.060
  6.080
  6.110
  6.130
  6.150
  6.170
  6.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.127
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133
  0.133

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  81
  93
  105
  117
  131
  145
  159
  175
  191
  207
  242
  260
  279
  298
  318
  339
  361
  384
  407
  432
  457
  484
  512
  541
  571
  602
  635
  670
  706
  743
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  38
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  202
  213
  225
  237
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  133
  148
  163
  180
  198
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  316
  340
  365
  390
  417
  445
  474
  504
  535
  568
  602
  637
  674
  712
  752
  794
  838
  883
  931
  981
Change in working capital, $m
  -47
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  191
  137
  153
  169
  186
  204
  223
  242
  263
  284
  300
  323
  348
  373
  399
  426
  454
  483
  514
  545
  578
  613
  649
  686
  725
  765
  808
  852
  898
  947
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -225
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -169
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -267
  -72
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -174
  -183
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -375
  -394
Free cash flow, $m
  -200
  120
  60
  68
  77
  87
  98
  109
  121
  134
  147
  154
  169
  184
  199
  216
  233
  250
  268
  287
  307
  327
  349
  371
  394
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
  552
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  215
  144
  154
  164
  173
  183
  192
  201
  210
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  365
  381
  397
  414
  432
  452
  472
  493
  515
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  207
  144
  154
  164
  173
  183
  192
  201
  210
  219
  228
  237
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  351
  365
  381
  397
  414
  432
  452
  472
  493
  515
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  264
  214
  232
  250
  270
  289
  310
  331
  352
  375
  391
  415
  440
  466
  493
  521
  549
  580
  611
  644
  678
  714
  752
  791
  832
  875
  920
  967
  1,016
  1,068
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  26
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  268
  190
  207
  224
  242
  260
  279
  299
  319
  340
  355
  378
  401
  425
  450
  476
  504
  532
  561
  592
  624
  658
  693
  730
  768
  808
  850
  894
  940
  989
Discount rate, %
 
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  246
  158
  154
  149
  141
  133
  123
  112
  100
  88
  75
  64
  54
  44
  36
  28
  22
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

John Bean Technologies Corporation designs, manufactures, tests, and services products and systems for food and beverage, and air transportation industries. It operates through JBT FoodTech and JBT AeroTech segments. The company provides protein product solutions that include mixing/grinding, injecting, marinating, tumbling, portioning, coating, frying, and freezing for poultry, beef, pork, and seafood, as well as ready-to-eat meals, fruits, vegetables, dairy, and bakery products; and liquid food solutions for filling, closing and sterilization of fruits, vegetables, soups, sauces, dairy, and pet food products, as well as to extract, concentrate, and aseptically process citrus, tomato and other fruits, vegetables, and juices. It also offers automatic guided vehicles for use in material handling in the manufacturing and warehouse industries; clipping systems, including table, semi-automatic, and automatic clippers, as well as net and clip, bag and clip, and hanging systems; processing machines, which include fine cutters/emulsifiers and bowl choppers; and consumables, such as clips, loops, labeling systems, and string and cord solutions. In addition, the company provides mobile air transportation equipment, such as commercial and military cargo loading, aircraft deicing, aircraft towing, and ground aircraft power and cooling systems; and airport gate equipment for passenger boarding, as well as maintenance services for airport equipment, systems, and facilities. Further, it offers air transportation solutions to airport authorities, airlines, airfreight, and ground handling companies, as well as military and defense contractors. The company provides its products and solutions through direct sales force, independent distributors, and sales representatives in the United States and internationally. John Bean Technologies Corporation is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  John Bean Technologies (JBT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.8
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 14.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 38.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 85.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -2.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 273.3%
Total Debt to Equity 277.2%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 12.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 43.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 7.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Net Profit Margin 5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 27.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
Payout Ratio 17.6%

JBT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JBT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1351 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by John Bean Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of John Bean Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JBT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for JBT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of John Bean Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of John Bean Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JBT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JBT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for John Bean Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for John Bean Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JBT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JBT are equal to 24.3%.

Life of production assets of 13.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in John Bean Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JBT is equal to 4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $180 million for John Bean Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 31.609 million for John Bean Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of John Bean Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.


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Stock chart of JBT Financial statements of JBT
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