Intrinsic value of Jernigan Capital - JCAP

Previous Close

$20.24

  Intrinsic Value

$36.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+82%

Previous close

$20.24

 
Intrinsic value

$36.75

 
Up/down potential

+82%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as JCAP.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JCAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  250.00
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  7
  11
  15
  22
  30
  40
  53
  68
  86
  107
  131
  158
  188
  222
  258
  297
  340
  385
  433
  484
  538
  594
  653
  715
  779
  846
  916
  988
  1,063
  1,141
  1,223
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9
  13
  19
  26
  34
  45
  58
  74
  92
  112
  135
  161
  190
  221
  255
  291
  330
  371
  415
  461
  509
  560
  613
  668
  725
  785
  847
  911
  978
  1,048
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  10
  13
  17
  23
  30
  39
  50
  63
  79
  97
  117
  140
  166
  196
  227
  261
  297
  336
  377
  421
  468
  516
  567
  620
  675
  732
  793
  855
  919
  986
  1,056
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  17
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  87
  95
  104
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  166
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  17
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  87
  95
  104
  114
  123
  133
  144
  155
  166
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Net income, $m
  16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  193
  188
  273
  386
  532
  715
  941
  1,213
  1,535
  1,909
  2,338
  2,821
  3,361
  3,956
  4,606
  5,311
  6,069
  6,878
  7,738
  8,648
  9,606
  10,611
  11,665
  12,765
  13,912
  15,107
  16,350
  17,643
  18,987
  20,384
  21,835
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  126
  188
  273
  386
  532
  715
  941
  1,213
  1,535
  1,909
  2,338
  2,821
  3,361
  3,956
  4,606
  5,311
  6,069
  6,878
  7,738
  8,648
  9,606
  10,611
  11,665
  12,765
  13,912
  15,107
  16,350
  17,643
  18,987
  20,384
  21,835
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.056
  0.059
  0.055
  0.057
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -100
  -146
  -207
  -285
  -383
  -504
  -650
  -823
  -1,023
  -1,253
  -1,512
  -1,801
  -2,120
  -2,469
  -2,847
  -3,253
  -3,686
  -4,147
  -4,635
  -5,148
  -5,688
  -6,252
  -6,842
  -7,457
  -8,097
  -8,763
  -9,456
  -10,177
  -10,925
  -11,703
Total debt, $m
  19
  31
  48
  70
  99
  136
  180
  234
  298
  372
  457
  553
  659
  777
  906
  1,046
  1,196
  1,356
  1,526
  1,706
  1,896
  2,095
  2,304
  2,521
  2,749
  2,985
  3,231
  3,487
  3,753
  4,030
  4,317
Total liabilities, $m
  24
  37
  54
  76
  105
  142
  186
  240
  304
  378
  463
  559
  665
  783
  912
  1,052
  1,202
  1,362
  1,532
  1,712
  1,902
  2,101
  2,310
  2,527
  2,755
  2,991
  3,237
  3,493
  3,759
  4,036
  4,323
Total equity, $m
  168
  150
  219
  309
  426
  574
  755
  973
  1,231
  1,531
  1,875
  2,263
  2,695
  3,173
  3,694
  4,259
  4,867
  5,516
  6,206
  6,935
  7,704
  8,510
  9,355
  10,237
  11,157
  12,116
  13,113
  14,150
  15,228
  16,348
  17,512
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  192
  187
  273
  385
  531
  716
  941
  1,213
  1,535
  1,909
  2,338
  2,822
  3,360
  3,956
  4,606
  5,311
  6,069
  6,878
  7,738
  8,647
  9,606
  10,611
  11,665
  12,764
  13,912
  15,107
  16,350
  17,643
  18,987
  20,384
  21,835
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.113
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -33
  -46
  -61
  -78
  -98
  -121
  -146
  -172
  -201
  -230
  -259
  -289
  -319
  -349
  -378
  -406
  -434
  -461
  -487
  -513
  -539
  -564
  -590
  -615
  -640
  -666
  -693
  -720
  -748
  -778
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  30
  43
  58
  76
  96
  119
  145
  172
  200
  230
  260
  291
  321
  351
  381
  410
  439
  467
  494
  521
  548
  574
  600
  627
  653
  680
  708
  736
  766
  796
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  30
  43
  58
  76
  96
  119
  145
  172
  200
  230
  260
  291
  321
  351
  381
  410
  439
  467
  494
  521
  548
  574
  600
  627
  653
  680
  708
  736
  766
  796
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  12
  17
  22
  29
  36
  45
  54
  64
  74
  85
  96
  107
  118
  129
  139
  150
  160
  170
  180
  190
  199
  209
  218
  227
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  287
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  63
  53
  72
  94
  120
  150
  183
  220
  259
  300
  343
  387
  431
  475
  519
  561
  603
  644
  684
  723
  761
  798
  835
  872
  909
  946
  983
  1,022
  1,062
  1,103
  1,145
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  75
  65
  89
  116
  149
  186
  228
  274
  323
  374
  428
  483
  538
  593
  648
  700
  753
  804
  854
  903
  951
  997
  1,044
  1,090
  1,136
  1,183
  1,229
  1,278
  1,328
  1,380
  1,432
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  32
  95
  131
  174
  224
  282
  347
  418
  494
  575
  658
  743
  829
  914
  999
  1,082
  1,164
  1,243
  1,321
  1,397
  1,472
  1,545
  1,617
  1,690
  1,762
  1,835
  1,910
  1,986
  2,064
  2,145
  2,229
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -53
  -72
  -94
  -120
  -150
  -183
  -220
  -259
  -300
  -344
  -388
  -433
  -477
  -522
  -565
  -608
  -649
  -690
  -729
  -768
  -807
  -845
  -882
  -920
  -958
  -997
  -1,037
  -1,078
  -1,120
  -1,164
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  109
  60
  80
  104
  132
  164
  198
  235
  274
  314
  355
  396
  437
  477
  517
  556
  594
  631
  668
  703
  738
  773
  807
  842
  877
  913
  949
  986
  1,025
  1,065
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  105
  54
  70
  86
  103
  119
  134
  147
  158
  165
  169
  169
  166
  160
  152
  141
  129
  116
  103
  89
  76
  64
  53
  43
  34
  27
  20
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  76.7
  60.0
  48.1
  39.2
  32.6
  27.5
  23.5
  20.3
  17.8
  15.7
  14.1
  12.6
  11.5
  10.5
  9.6
  8.9
  8.2
  7.7
  7.2
  6.8
  6.4
  6.0
  5.7
  5.4
  5.2
  5.0
  4.7
  4.5
  4.4
  4.2

Jernigan Capital, Inc. is a commercial real estate finance company. The Company provides capital to private developers, owners and operators of self-storage facilities. It intends to generate long-term returns on development property investments through a fixed rate of interest on its invested capital together with an interest in the positive cash flows of the self-storage development from operations, sales and/or refinancings. It generates cash flows from construction loans and operating property loans in the form of a fixed interest rate and origination fees. It originates various loans, such as bridge loans and credit lines. It has development property investments in Orlando, Atlanta, Tampa, Chicago and Miami. Its operating property loans are located in New Orleans, Newark, Nashville, Sacramento and Chicago. The Company conducts its investment activities through Jernigan Capital Operating Company, LLC. The Company is externally managed and advised by JCap Advisors, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jernigan Capital (JCAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.3
Price to Sales 25.9
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -36.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -36.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 250%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 11.3%
Total Debt to Equity 11.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
EBITDA Margin 228.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Operating Margin -42.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -81%
Pre-Tax Margin 228.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Net Profit Margin 228.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 50%

JCAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JCAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jernigan Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Jernigan Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JCAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JCAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jernigan Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jernigan Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JCAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JCAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Jernigan Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jernigan Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JCAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JCAP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jernigan Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JCAP is equal to -957.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $168 million for Jernigan Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.238 million for Jernigan Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jernigan Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Jernigan Capital Closes $20.1 Million Investment in Miami   [Nov-16-17 06:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital Announces Dividend for Fourth Quarter 2017   [Nov-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-02-17 05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Memphis company closes $10 million investment in Louisville   [Oct-02-17 05:06PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jernigan Capital tops 2Q profit forecasts   [01:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jernigan Capital Announces Dividend for Third Quarter 2017   [Aug-02-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital, Inc. Closes New Credit Facility   [Jul-25-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Memphis company announces $27M deal in Manhattan   [Jul-17-17 10:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 08:51AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Small Cap REITs Poised To Profit   [Jun-26-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Jernigan expands in Florida with another multimillion-dollar deal   [Jun-13-17 12:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Memphis company continues 'record-setting' year with $9M commitment   [May-23-17 04:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Batter Up! The Commercial Mortgage REITs   [May-08-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Jernigan Capital tops 1Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 06:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Jernigan Capital set to have 'record' year   [03:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jernigan Capital beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-01-17 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Jernigan Capital, Inc. Announces New Investment in Raleigh   [Dec-22-16 06:11PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital Announces Dividend for Fourth Quarter 2016   [Nov-03-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of JCAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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