Intrinsic value of Jernigan Capital - JCAP

Previous Close

$19.01

  Intrinsic Value

$11.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$19.01

 
Intrinsic value

$11.44

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as JCAP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JCAP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  250.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  7
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  209
  259
  317
  382
  454
  534
  621
  716
  817
  925
  1,040
  1,162
  1,290
  1,424
  1,565
  1,712
  1,865
  2,025
  2,191
  2,363
  2,543
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  15
  22
  32
  45
  62
  84
  110
  142
  179
  222
  271
  327
  389
  458
  532
  613
  700
  793
  892
  996
  1,106
  1,221
  1,341
  1,467
  1,598
  1,735
  1,877
  2,025
  2,179
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  10
  14
  19
  26
  36
  50
  67
  89
  115
  147
  184
  227
  276
  333
  395
  464
  538
  619
  706
  799
  899
  1,003
  1,113
  1,228
  1,348
  1,474
  1,606
  1,743
  1,885
  2,033
  2,187
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  9
  13
  19
  25
  32
  40
  49
  59
  71
  83
  96
  111
  126
  142
  159
  178
  197
  217
  237
  259
  282
  305
  330
  355
EBITDA, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  1
  3
  6
  9
  13
  19
  25
  32
  40
  49
  59
  71
  83
  96
  111
  126
  142
  159
  178
  197
  217
  237
  259
  282
  305
  330
  355
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  20
  26
  32
  39
  47
  56
  66
  77
  88
  101
  114
  129
  144
  159
  176
  193
  212
  231
  250
  271
  292
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Net income, $m
  16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  193
  200
  309
  462
  670
  946
  1,300
  1,746
  2,292
  2,949
  3,725
  4,626
  5,656
  6,817
  8,111
  9,537
  11,094
  12,779
  14,591
  16,525
  18,579
  20,750
  23,036
  25,435
  27,947
  30,571
  33,306
  36,155
  39,119
  42,201
  45,404
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  126
  200
  309
  462
  670
  946
  1,300
  1,746
  2,292
  2,949
  3,725
  4,626
  5,656
  6,817
  8,111
  9,537
  11,094
  12,779
  14,591
  16,525
  18,579
  20,750
  23,036
  25,435
  27,947
  30,571
  33,306
  36,155
  39,119
  42,201
  45,404
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.056
  0.055
  0.055
  0.056
  0.057
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
  0.056
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -142
  -157
  -171
  -187
  -202
  -219
  -236
  -254
Total debt, $m
  19
  34
  55
  85
  127
  181
  251
  340
  448
  578
  732
  910
  1,114
  1,344
  1,600
  1,882
  2,191
  2,524
  2,883
  3,266
  3,673
  4,102
  4,555
  5,030
  5,528
  6,047
  6,589
  7,153
  7,740
  8,350
  8,984
Total liabilities, $m
  24
  40
  61
  91
  133
  187
  257
  346
  454
  584
  738
  916
  1,120
  1,350
  1,606
  1,888
  2,197
  2,530
  2,889
  3,272
  3,679
  4,108
  4,561
  5,036
  5,534
  6,053
  6,595
  7,159
  7,746
  8,356
  8,990
Total equity, $m
  168
  160
  248
  371
  538
  759
  1,043
  1,400
  1,838
  2,365
  2,988
  3,710
  4,536
  5,467
  6,505
  7,649
  8,897
  10,249
  11,702
  13,253
  14,900
  16,641
  18,475
  20,399
  22,414
  24,518
  26,711
  28,996
  31,373
  33,845
  36,414
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  192
  200
  309
  462
  671
  946
  1,300
  1,746
  2,292
  2,949
  3,726
  4,626
  5,656
  6,817
  8,111
  9,537
  11,094
  12,779
  14,591
  16,525
  18,579
  20,749
  23,036
  25,435
  27,948
  30,571
  33,306
  36,155
  39,119
  42,201
  45,404
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.113
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802
  0.802

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -44
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  15
  22
  30
  41
  55
  70
  88
  108
  130
  154
  178
  204
  230
  256
  282
  308
  334
  359
  383
  407
  430
  453
  475
  497
  519
  542
  564
  587
  610
  634
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  63
  63
  90
  125
  169
  222
  285
  357
  437
  525
  619
  718
  820
  924
  1,029
  1,133
  1,236
  1,337
  1,436
  1,533
  1,627
  1,719
  1,809
  1,897
  1,985
  2,072
  2,159
  2,247
  2,337
  2,429
  2,523
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  75
  78
  112
  155
  210
  277
  355
  445
  545
  655
  773
  896
  1,024
  1,154
  1,285
  1,415
  1,544
  1,671
  1,795
  1,916
  2,034
  2,149
  2,262
  2,372
  2,482
  2,591
  2,701
  2,811
  2,924
  3,039
  3,157
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  32
  74
  110
  154
  210
  277
  357
  448
  550
  661
  780
  906
  1,036
  1,168
  1,301
  1,434
  1,566
  1,695
  1,821
  1,945
  2,065
  2,183
  2,299
  2,413
  2,526
  2,638
  2,751
  2,865
  2,981
  3,099
  3,221
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -67
  -63
  -90
  -125
  -169
  -222
  -285
  -357
  -438
  -527
  -622
  -722
  -826
  -931
  -1,038
  -1,144
  -1,249
  -1,352
  -1,453
  -1,551
  -1,647
  -1,741
  -1,834
  -1,924
  -2,014
  -2,104
  -2,194
  -2,285
  -2,377
  -2,472
  -2,569
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  67
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  79
  19
  29
  40
  55
  72
  91
  111
  134
  158
  183
  210
  236
  263
  290
  317
  343
  369
  394
  418
  442
  465
  489
  511
  534
  557
  580
  603
  627
  652
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  76
  18
  25
  33
  42
  52
  61
  70
  77
  83
  87
  89
  90
  88
  85
  81
  75
  68
  61
  53
  46
  39
  32
  26
  21
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  60.9
  38.4
  25.2
  17.1
  12.0
  8.6
  6.3
  4.8
  3.7
  2.9
  2.3
  1.9
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2

Jernigan Capital, Inc. is an equity real estate investment trust. The firm primarily engages in the investment and ownership of self storage facilities in United States. Jernigan Capital, Inc. is based in Memphis, Tennessee.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jernigan Capital (JCAP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.6
Price to Sales 24.3
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -34.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -34.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 250%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 11.3%
Total Debt to Equity 11.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.8%
EBITDA Margin 228.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Operating Margin -42.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -81%
Pre-Tax Margin 228.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Net Profit Margin 228.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 50%

JCAP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JCAP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jernigan Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Jernigan Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JCAP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JCAP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jernigan Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jernigan Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JCAP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JCAP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Jernigan Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jernigan Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JCAP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JCAP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jernigan Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JCAP is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $168 million for Jernigan Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.511 million for Jernigan Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jernigan Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Jernigan Capital tops 2Q profit forecasts   [01:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Jernigan Capital Announces Dividend for Third Quarter 2017   [Aug-02-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital, Inc. Closes New Credit Facility   [Jul-25-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Memphis company announces $27M deal in Manhattan   [Jul-17-17 10:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 08:51AM  Zacks]
▶ 3 Small Cap REITs Poised To Profit   [Jun-26-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Jernigan expands in Florida with another multimillion-dollar deal   [Jun-13-17 12:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Memphis company continues 'record-setting' year with $9M commitment   [May-23-17 04:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Batter Up! The Commercial Mortgage REITs   [May-08-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Jernigan Capital tops 1Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 06:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Jernigan Capital set to have 'record' year   [03:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Jernigan Capital beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-01-17 06:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Jernigan Capital, Inc. Announces New Investment in Raleigh   [Dec-22-16 06:11PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital Announces Dividend for Fourth Quarter 2016   [Nov-03-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Jernigan Capital Announces Dividend for Third Quarter 2016   [Sep-02-16 04:30PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of JCAP Financial statements of JCAP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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