Intrinsic value of J.C. Penney - JCP

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$4.56

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$4.56

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JCP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.62
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  12,547
  12,878
  13,174
  13,512
  13,892
  14,314
  14,776
  15,279
  15,824
  16,410
  17,040
  17,714
  18,433
  19,198
  20,012
  20,875
  21,790
  22,758
  23,782
  24,864
  26,007
  27,212
  28,484
  29,824
  31,236
  32,723
  34,288
  35,936
  37,670
  39,495
  41,414
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,378
  4,479
  4,594
  4,723
  4,867
  5,024
  5,195
  5,380
  5,580
  5,794
  6,023
  6,267
  6,527
  6,804
  7,098
  7,409
  7,738
  8,086
  8,454
  8,842
  9,252
  9,684
  10,140
  10,620
  11,126
  11,658
  12,218
  12,808
  13,428
  14,081
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  8,863
  9,085
  9,312
  9,545
  9,783
  10,028
  10,279
  10,536
  10,799
  11,069
  11,346
  11,629
  11,920
  12,218
  12,523
  12,837
  13,157
  13,486
  13,824
  14,169
  14,523
  14,886
  15,259
  15,640
  16,031
  16,432
  16,843
  17,264
  17,695
  18,138
Total operating expenses, $m
  12,182
  13,241
  13,564
  13,906
  14,268
  14,650
  15,052
  15,474
  15,916
  16,379
  16,863
  17,369
  17,896
  18,447
  19,022
  19,621
  20,246
  20,895
  21,572
  22,278
  23,011
  23,775
  24,570
  25,399
  26,260
  27,157
  28,090
  29,061
  30,072
  31,123
  32,219
Operating income, $m
  365
  -364
  -390
  -394
  -376
  -336
  -276
  -195
  -92
  32
  178
  346
  536
  751
  990
  1,254
  1,545
  1,863
  2,210
  2,587
  2,995
  3,437
  3,913
  4,425
  4,975
  5,566
  6,198
  6,875
  7,599
  8,371
  9,195
EBITDA, $m
  974
  264
  252
  265
  302
  362
  445
  551
  680
  832
  1,009
  1,209
  1,435
  1,687
  1,966
  2,272
  2,607
  2,973
  3,370
  3,799
  4,264
  4,764
  5,302
  5,879
  6,499
  7,161
  7,870
  8,628
  9,436
  10,297
  11,215
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  164
  158
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  209
  221
  233
  247
  261
  276
  293
  310
  328
  348
  369
  390
  413
  438
  463
  491
  519
  549
  581
  614
  649
  686
  725
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  -528
  -548
  -558
  -547
  -516
  -465
  -393
  -301
  -189
  -56
  99
  275
  475
  697
  944
  1,216
  1,515
  1,841
  2,197
  2,582
  2,999
  3,449
  3,934
  4,456
  5,017
  5,617
  6,261
  6,949
  7,685
  8,470
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  27
  74
  128
  188
  255
  328
  409
  497
  593
  697
  810
  931
  1,062
  1,203
  1,354
  1,517
  1,690
  1,876
  2,075
  2,287
Net income, $m
  1
  -528
  -548
  -558
  -547
  -516
  -465
  -393
  -301
  -189
  -56
  72
  201
  346
  509
  689
  888
  1,106
  1,344
  1,603
  1,885
  2,189
  2,518
  2,872
  3,253
  3,662
  4,101
  4,570
  5,073
  5,610
  6,183

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  887
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,314
  8,713
  8,913
  9,142
  9,399
  9,684
  9,997
  10,338
  10,706
  11,103
  11,529
  11,985
  12,471
  12,989
  13,540
  14,124
  14,743
  15,398
  16,091
  16,823
  17,596
  18,412
  19,272
  20,178
  21,134
  22,140
  23,199
  24,314
  25,487
  26,722
  28,020
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,427
  8,713
  8,913
  9,142
  9,399
  9,684
  9,997
  10,338
  10,706
  11,103
  11,529
  11,985
  12,471
  12,989
  13,540
  14,124
  14,743
  15,398
  16,091
  16,823
  17,596
  18,412
  19,272
  20,178
  21,134
  22,140
  23,199
  24,314
  25,487
  26,722
  28,020
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.489
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
  1.478
Average production assets, $m
  5,228
  5,589
  5,717
  5,864
  6,029
  6,212
  6,413
  6,631
  6,867
  7,122
  7,395
  7,688
  8,000
  8,332
  8,685
  9,060
  9,457
  9,877
  10,322
  10,791
  11,287
  11,810
  12,362
  12,943
  13,556
  14,202
  14,881
  15,596
  16,349
  17,141
  17,973
Working capital, $m
  1,678
  850
  869
  892
  917
  945
  975
  1,008
  1,044
  1,083
  1,125
  1,169
  1,217
  1,267
  1,321
  1,378
  1,438
  1,502
  1,570
  1,641
  1,716
  1,796
  1,880
  1,968
  2,062
  2,160
  2,263
  2,372
  2,486
  2,607
  2,733
Total debt, $m
  4,836
  4,514
  4,694
  4,900
  5,131
  5,388
  5,669
  5,976
  6,307
  6,665
  7,048
  7,459
  7,896
  8,362
  8,858
  9,383
  9,941
  10,530
  11,154
  11,813
  12,508
  13,242
  14,017
  14,833
  15,692
  16,598
  17,551
  18,555
  19,611
  20,721
  21,890
Total liabilities, $m
  7,960
  7,842
  8,022
  8,228
  8,459
  8,716
  8,997
  9,304
  9,635
  9,993
  10,376
  10,787
  11,224
  11,690
  12,186
  12,711
  13,269
  13,858
  14,482
  15,141
  15,836
  16,570
  17,345
  18,161
  19,020
  19,926
  20,879
  21,883
  22,939
  24,049
  25,218
Total equity, $m
  1,354
  871
  891
  914
  940
  968
  1,000
  1,034
  1,071
  1,110
  1,153
  1,199
  1,247
  1,299
  1,354
  1,412
  1,474
  1,540
  1,609
  1,682
  1,760
  1,841
  1,927
  2,018
  2,113
  2,214
  2,320
  2,431
  2,549
  2,672
  2,802
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,314
  8,713
  8,913
  9,142
  9,399
  9,684
  9,997
  10,338
  10,706
  11,103
  11,529
  11,986
  12,471
  12,989
  13,540
  14,123
  14,743
  15,398
  16,091
  16,823
  17,596
  18,411
  19,272
  20,179
  21,133
  22,140
  23,199
  24,314
  25,488
  26,721
  28,020
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.572
  5.180
  5.270
  5.360
  5.460
  5.560
  5.670
  5.780
  5.890
  6.000
  6.110
  6.220
  6.330
  6.440
  6.540
  6.640
  6.740
  6.840
  6.930
  7.020
  7.110
  7.190
  7.270
  7.350
  7.430
  7.500
  7.570
  7.630
  7.690
  7.750
  7.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.055
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  -528
  -548
  -558
  -547
  -516
  -465
  -393
  -301
  -189
  -56
  72
  201
  346
  509
  689
  888
  1,106
  1,344
  1,603
  1,885
  2,189
  2,518
  2,872
  3,253
  3,662
  4,101
  4,570
  5,073
  5,610
  6,183
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  609
  628
  642
  659
  677
  698
  721
  745
  772
  800
  831
  864
  899
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,063
  1,110
  1,160
  1,212
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,454
  1,523
  1,596
  1,672
  1,752
  1,837
  1,926
  2,019
Funds from operations, $m
  111
  100
  94
  101
  130
  182
  256
  352
  470
  611
  775
  936
  1,100
  1,283
  1,485
  1,707
  1,951
  2,216
  2,504
  2,816
  3,153
  3,516
  3,907
  4,326
  4,776
  5,258
  5,773
  6,323
  6,910
  7,536
  8,203
Change in working capital, $m
  -223
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  127
Cash from operations, $m
  334
  -81
  75
  78
  105
  154
  225
  319
  435
  573
  734
  892
  1,052
  1,232
  1,431
  1,650
  1,890
  2,152
  2,436
  2,745
  3,078
  3,437
  3,823
  4,238
  4,683
  5,160
  5,669
  6,214
  6,795
  7,415
  8,076
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -616
  -628
  -642
  -659
  -677
  -698
  -721
  -745
  -772
  -800
  -831
  -864
  -899
  -936
  -976
  -1,018
  -1,063
  -1,110
  -1,160
  -1,212
  -1,268
  -1,327
  -1,389
  -1,454
  -1,523
  -1,596
  -1,672
  -1,752
  -1,837
  -1,926
New CAPEX, $m
  -427
  -108
  -129
  -147
  -165
  -183
  -201
  -218
  -236
  -255
  -273
  -292
  -312
  -332
  -353
  -375
  -397
  -420
  -444
  -470
  -496
  -523
  -552
  -582
  -613
  -645
  -679
  -715
  -753
  -792
  -833
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -316
  -724
  -757
  -789
  -824
  -860
  -899
  -939
  -981
  -1,027
  -1,073
  -1,123
  -1,176
  -1,231
  -1,289
  -1,351
  -1,415
  -1,483
  -1,554
  -1,630
  -1,708
  -1,791
  -1,879
  -1,971
  -2,067
  -2,168
  -2,275
  -2,387
  -2,505
  -2,629
  -2,759
Free cash flow, $m
  18
  -805
  -682
  -711
  -719
  -706
  -673
  -620
  -547
  -454
  -340
  -232
  -123
  1
  142
  300
  475
  669
  882
  1,115
  1,369
  1,645
  1,944
  2,267
  2,616
  2,991
  3,394
  3,827
  4,290
  4,787
  5,317
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  26
  -164
  180
  206
  231
  256
  281
  306
  332
  357
  383
  410
  438
  466
  495
  526
  557
  590
  624
  659
  696
  734
  774
  816
  860
  905
  953
  1,003
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  532
  521
  528
  513
  478
  423
  348
  252
  136
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -31
  368
  701
  734
  744
  734
  704
  654
  584
  493
  383
  410
  438
  466
  495
  526
  557
  590
  624
  659
  696
  734
  774
  816
  860
  905
  953
  1,003
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  -970
  -501
  -505
  -487
  -450
  -392
  -314
  -215
  -96
  44
  178
  314
  467
  637
  825
  1,032
  1,259
  1,506
  1,774
  2,065
  2,379
  2,718
  3,083
  3,476
  3,897
  4,348
  4,830
  5,346
  5,898
  6,486
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -45
  -335
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  773
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  133
  266
  415
  582
  767
  970
  1,193
  1,436
  1,701
  1,988
  2,298
  2,632
  2,993
  3,380
  3,796
  4,242
  4,719
  5,229
  5,774
  6,356
Discount rate, %
 
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
  43.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  23
  37
  44
  46
  45
  41
  36
  30
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.9
  32.1
  20.4
  13.2
  8.8
  6.2
  4.6
  3.7
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3
  3.3

J. C. Penney Company, Inc., through its subsidiary, J. C. Penney Corporation, Inc., sells merchandise through department stores in the United States. The company sells family apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, beauty products, and home furnishings, as well as provides various services, including styling salon, optical, portrait photography, and custom decorating. As of February 24, 2017, it operated approximately 1,000 department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company also sells its products through its Website, jcpenney.com. J. C. Penney Company, Inc. was founded in 1902 and is based in Plano, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  J.C. Penney (JCP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1405.8
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -15.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 33.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 336.6%
Total Debt to Equity 357.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.6%
Return On Equity 0.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
EBITDA Margin 4.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Operating Margin 2.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Payout Ratio 0%

JCP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JCP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12625 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by J.C. Penney. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of J.C. Penney. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JCP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.5%, whose default value for JCP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of J.C. Penney, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of J.C. Penney.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JCP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 34%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8647 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JCP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for J.C. Penney.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for J.C. Penney. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JCP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JCP are equal to 43.4%.

Life of production assets of 8.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in J.C. Penney operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JCP is equal to 6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1309 million for J.C. Penney - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 294.872 million for J.C. Penney is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of J.C. Penney at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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Stock chart of JCP Financial statements of JCP Annual reports of JCP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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