Intrinsic value of Jacobs Engineering Group - JEC

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$55.72

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$55.72

 
Intrinsic value

$56.47

 
Up/down potential

+1%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.50
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  10,964
  11,183
  11,440
  11,735
  12,065
  12,430
  12,832
  13,269
  13,742
  14,251
  14,798
  15,383
  16,008
  16,673
  17,379
  18,129
  18,923
  19,764
  20,653
  21,593
  22,585
  23,632
  24,736
  25,900
  27,126
  28,417
  29,777
  31,208
  32,714
  34,299
  35,965
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  9,734
  9,951
  10,199
  10,477
  10,786
  11,124
  11,492
  11,891
  12,321
  12,782
  12,967
  13,493
  14,053
  14,649
  15,281
  15,950
  16,659
  17,409
  18,201
  19,037
  19,920
  20,850
  21,831
  22,865
  23,953
  25,099
  26,306
  27,575
  28,911
  30,315
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,179
  1,208
  1,238
  1,269
  1,301
  1,334
  1,367
  1,401
  1,436
  1,472
  1,509
  1,547
  1,585
  1,625
  1,666
  1,707
  1,750
  1,794
  1,838
  1,884
  1,932
  1,980
  2,029
  2,080
  2,132
  2,185
  2,240
  2,296
  2,353
  2,412
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,667
  10,913
  11,159
  11,437
  11,746
  12,087
  12,458
  12,859
  13,292
  13,757
  14,254
  14,476
  15,040
  15,638
  16,274
  16,947
  17,657
  18,409
  19,203
  20,039
  20,921
  21,852
  22,830
  23,860
  24,945
  26,085
  27,284
  28,546
  29,871
  31,264
  32,727
Operating income, $m
  297
  270
  281
  297
  318
  344
  374
  409
  450
  495
  545
  908
  968
  1,034
  1,105
  1,182
  1,265
  1,355
  1,451
  1,554
  1,664
  1,781
  1,906
  2,039
  2,181
  2,332
  2,492
  2,663
  2,843
  3,035
  3,238
EBITDA, $m
  427
  602
  614
  631
  652
  679
  710
  746
  788
  834
  885
  941
  1,003
  1,070
  1,143
  1,222
  1,307
  1,398
  1,496
  1,601
  1,713
  1,832
  1,960
  2,096
  2,240
  2,394
  2,557
  2,731
  2,914
  3,109
  3,316
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  149
  161
  173
  186
  199
  213
  228
  244
Earnings before tax, $m
  287
  257
  265
  279
  297
  319
  346
  378
  413
  454
  499
  856
  911
  971
  1,035
  1,106
  1,181
  1,263
  1,351
  1,445
  1,545
  1,653
  1,768
  1,890
  2,020
  2,159
  2,307
  2,463
  2,630
  2,807
  2,994
Tax expense, $m
  72
  69
  72
  75
  80
  86
  93
  102
  112
  123
  135
  231
  246
  262
  280
  299
  319
  341
  365
  390
  417
  446
  477
  510
  546
  583
  623
  665
  710
  758
  808
Net income, $m
  210
  187
  194
  204
  217
  233
  253
  276
  302
  331
  364
  625
  665
  709
  756
  807
  862
  922
  986
  1,055
  1,128
  1,207
  1,290
  1,380
  1,475
  1,576
  1,684
  1,798
  1,920
  2,049
  2,186

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  656
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,360
  6,840
  6,997
  7,177
  7,379
  7,603
  7,848
  8,115
  8,405
  8,716
  9,051
  9,409
  9,791
  10,197
  10,629
  11,088
  11,574
  12,088
  12,632
  13,207
  13,814
  14,454
  15,129
  15,841
  16,591
  17,381
  18,212
  19,088
  20,009
  20,978
  21,997
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,704
  6,840
  6,997
  7,177
  7,379
  7,603
  7,848
  8,115
  8,405
  8,716
  9,051
  9,409
  9,791
  10,197
  10,629
  11,088
  11,574
  12,088
  12,632
  13,207
  13,814
  14,454
  15,129
  15,841
  16,591
  17,381
  18,212
  19,088
  20,009
  20,978
  21,997
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
  1.635
Average production assets, $m
  696
  705
  721
  739
  760
  783
  808
  836
  866
  898
  932
  969
  1,008
  1,050
  1,095
  1,142
  1,192
  1,245
  1,301
  1,360
  1,423
  1,489
  1,558
  1,632
  1,709
  1,790
  1,876
  1,966
  2,061
  2,161
  2,266
Working capital, $m
  1,081
  436
  446
  458
  471
  485
  500
  517
  536
  556
  577
  600
  624
  650
  678
  707
  738
  771
  805
  842
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,058
  1,108
  1,161
  1,217
  1,276
  1,338
  1,403
Total debt, $m
  388
  446
  519
  602
  695
  798
  911
  1,034
  1,168
  1,311
  1,465
  1,630
  1,807
  1,994
  2,193
  2,405
  2,629
  2,866
  3,116
  3,381
  3,661
  3,956
  4,268
  4,596
  4,941
  5,305
  5,689
  6,092
  6,517
  6,964
  7,434
Total liabilities, $m
  3,095
  3,153
  3,226
  3,309
  3,402
  3,505
  3,618
  3,741
  3,875
  4,018
  4,172
  4,337
  4,514
  4,701
  4,900
  5,112
  5,336
  5,573
  5,823
  6,088
  6,368
  6,663
  6,975
  7,303
  7,648
  8,012
  8,396
  8,799
  9,224
  9,671
  10,141
Total equity, $m
  4,265
  3,687
  3,772
  3,868
  3,977
  4,098
  4,230
  4,374
  4,530
  4,698
  4,878
  5,071
  5,277
  5,496
  5,729
  5,976
  6,238
  6,516
  6,809
  7,118
  7,446
  7,791
  8,155
  8,538
  8,942
  9,368
  9,816
  10,288
  10,785
  11,307
  11,856
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,360
  6,840
  6,998
  7,177
  7,379
  7,603
  7,848
  8,115
  8,405
  8,716
  9,050
  9,408
  9,791
  10,197
  10,629
  11,088
  11,574
  12,089
  12,632
  13,206
  13,814
  14,454
  15,130
  15,841
  16,590
  17,380
  18,212
  19,087
  20,009
  20,978
  21,997
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.091
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.538
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539
  0.539

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  210
  187
  194
  204
  217
  233
  253
  276
  302
  331
  364
  625
  665
  709
  756
  807
  862
  922
  986
  1,055
  1,128
  1,207
  1,290
  1,380
  1,475
  1,576
  1,684
  1,798
  1,920
  2,049
  2,186
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  332
  333
  334
  334
  335
  336
  337
  338
  339
  340
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
Funds from operations, $m
  980
  520
  527
  537
  551
  568
  589
  613
  640
  670
  704
  659
  700
  745
  794
  847
  904
  965
  1,031
  1,102
  1,177
  1,258
  1,344
  1,436
  1,534
  1,638
  1,749
  1,866
  1,991
  2,124
  2,264
Change in working capital, $m
  300
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  680
  472
  517
  526
  538
  554
  573
  595
  621
  650
  683
  636
  676
  719
  766
  817
  873
  932
  996
  1,065
  1,139
  1,217
  1,301
  1,391
  1,486
  1,588
  1,696
  1,811
  1,932
  2,062
  2,199
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
New CAPEX, $m
  -78
  -9
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -140
  -33
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
Free cash flow, $m
  540
  439
  476
  482
  492
  505
  521
  540
  563
  588
  617
  567
  603
  642
  685
  732
  783
  838
  897
  961
  1,029
  1,102
  1,180
  1,264
  1,352
  1,447
  1,548
  1,655
  1,770
  1,891
  2,019
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -202
  60
  73
  83
  93
  103
  113
  123
  133
  144
  154
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  383
  404
  425
  447
  470
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -317
  60
  73
  83
  93
  103
  113
  123
  133
  144
  154
  165
  176
  187
  199
  211
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  311
  328
  346
  364
  383
  404
  425
  447
  470
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  195
  500
  549
  565
  585
  608
  634
  663
  696
  732
  772
  732
  779
  830
  885
  944
  1,007
  1,075
  1,148
  1,226
  1,309
  1,397
  1,491
  1,592
  1,698
  1,811
  1,932
  2,059
  2,194
  2,337
  2,489
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  27
  -76
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -180
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -277
  -293
  -310
  -327
  -345
  -364
  -384
  -404
  -426
  -448
  -472
  -496
  -522
  -549
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  654
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,078
  464
  468
  476
  487
  502
  519
  540
  564
  591
  539
  573
  610
  652
  696
  745
  798
  855
  916
  982
  1,052
  1,127
  1,208
  1,294
  1,386
  1,483
  1,587
  1,698
  1,815
  1,940
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,034
  425
  407
  392
  378
  364
  351
  337
  324
  310
  256
  244
  232
  219
  204
  189
  174
  157
  141
  125
  109
  94
  79
  66
  54
  43
  34
  26
  20
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. provides technical, professional, and construction services. It offers project services that include engineering, architectural, interiors, design, planning, and related services, as well as planning, scheduling, procurement, estimating, cost engineering, project accounting and delivery, safety, and other support services. The company also provides process, scientific, and systems consulting services, including performing pricing studies, market analyses, and financial projections in determining the feasibility of a project; performing gasoline reformulation modeling; analyzing and evaluating layout and mechanical designs for complex processing plants; analyzing automation and control systems; analyzing, designing, and executing bio containment strategies; developing and performing process protocols; and performing geological and metallurgical studies. In addition, it offers traditional field construction, modular construction consulting, and environmental remedial construction services. Further, the company provides operations and maintenance services that include managing subcontractors and other on-site personnel; and offering process plant maintenance, management and technical support, and program management services, as well as offers systems integration and communication, information technology, and data security solutions. It serves various industries and markets, such as oil and gas exploration, production, and refining; chemicals and polymers; aerospace, defense, and environmental programs; buildings; infrastructure and telecommunications; mining and minerals; pharmaceuticals and biotechnology; power; pulp and paper; technology and manufacturing; and food and consumer products, and others. The company provides its services through approximately 200 offices located in North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Australia, Africa, and Asia. The company was founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.1
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -11.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 328
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 9.1%
Total Debt to Equity 9.1%
Interest Coverage 23
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 4.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
EBITDA Margin 3.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 25.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

JEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10964 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Jacobs Engineering Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Jacobs Engineering Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Jacobs Engineering Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Jacobs Engineering Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1150 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Jacobs Engineering Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Jacobs Engineering Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JEC are equal to 6.3%.

Life of production assets of 28.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Jacobs Engineering Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JEC is equal to 3.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4265 million for Jacobs Engineering Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.02 million for Jacobs Engineering Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Jacobs Engineering Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.7 billion.


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Stock chart of JEC Financial statements of JEC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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