Intrinsic value of J&J Snack Foods - JJSF

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$134.48

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$134.48

 
Intrinsic value

$60.22

 
Up/down potential

-55%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JJSF stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  993
  1,013
  1,036
  1,063
  1,093
  1,126
  1,162
  1,202
  1,245
  1,291
  1,340
  1,393
  1,450
  1,510
  1,574
  1,642
  1,714
  1,790
  1,871
  1,956
  2,046
  2,140
  2,240
  2,346
  2,457
  2,574
  2,697
  2,827
  2,963
  3,106
  3,257
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  893
  914
  937
  963
  992
  1,024
  1,058
  1,096
  1,136
  1,179
  1,217
  1,266
  1,319
  1,375
  1,434
  1,497
  1,563
  1,634
  1,708
  1,786
  1,869
  1,957
  2,049
  2,146
  2,248
  2,355
  2,468
  2,588
  2,713
  2,845
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
Total operating expenses, $m
  880
  897
  918
  941
  967
  997
  1,029
  1,063
  1,101
  1,141
  1,184
  1,222
  1,271
  1,325
  1,381
  1,440
  1,503
  1,569
  1,640
  1,714
  1,793
  1,876
  1,964
  2,056
  2,153
  2,255
  2,363
  2,476
  2,596
  2,721
  2,853
Operating income, $m
  113
  116
  118
  122
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  171
  178
  186
  194
  202
  211
  221
  231
  241
  253
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
EBITDA, $m
  154
  154
  158
  162
  167
  172
  177
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  328
  344
  360
  377
  395
  415
  435
  456
  478
  501
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  117
  116
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  148
  154
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  237
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
Tax expense, $m
  41
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  46
  48
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
Net income, $m
  76
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  287

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  790
  649
  664
  681
  700
  721
  744
  770
  797
  827
  859
  893
  929
  967
  1,008
  1,052
  1,098
  1,147
  1,198
  1,253
  1,310
  1,371
  1,435
  1,503
  1,574
  1,649
  1,728
  1,811
  1,898
  1,990
  2,087
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  636
  649
  664
  681
  700
  721
  744
  770
  797
  827
  859
  893
  929
  967
  1,008
  1,052
  1,098
  1,147
  1,198
  1,253
  1,310
  1,371
  1,435
  1,503
  1,574
  1,649
  1,728
  1,811
  1,898
  1,990
  2,087
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.561
  1.561
  1.560
  1.561
  1.561
  1.562
  1.562
  1.561
  1.562
  1.561
  1.560
  1.560
  1.561
  1.562
  1.562
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.562
  1.561
  1.562
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
  1.561
Average production assets, $m
  222
  227
  232
  238
  245
  252
  260
  269
  279
  289
  300
  312
  325
  338
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  479
  502
  525
  550
  577
  604
  633
  664
  696
  730
Working capital, $m
  253
  101
  104
  106
  109
  113
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  270
  283
  296
  311
  326
Total debt, $m
  2
  5
  9
  13
  17
  22
  28
  34
  41
  48
  55
  63
  72
  81
  91
  101
  112
  124
  136
  149
  163
  178
  193
  209
  226
  244
  263
  283
  304
  326
  349
Total liabilities, $m
  153
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
Total equity, $m
  638
  494
  505
  518
  533
  549
  567
  586
  607
  629
  653
  679
  707
  736
  767
  800
  836
  873
  912
  953
  997
  1,043
  1,092
  1,144
  1,198
  1,255
  1,315
  1,378
  1,444
  1,514
  1,588
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  791
  649
  664
  681
  700
  721
  745
  770
  798
  827
  858
  892
  929
  967
  1,008
  1,051
  1,098
  1,147
  1,198
  1,252
  1,310
  1,371
  1,435
  1,503
  1,574
  1,649
  1,728
  1,811
  1,898
  1,990
  2,087
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.003
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  76
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  101
  104
  108
  113
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  287
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  93
  97
Funds from operations, $m
  115
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  141
  145
  150
  156
  161
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  264
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  121
  125
  124
  126
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  151
  156
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  320
  336
  352
  369
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -75
  -35
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -127
Free cash flow, $m
  46
  91
  88
  89
  91
  93
  95
  98
  100
  103
  107
  108
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -9
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  36
  94
  92
  93
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  116
  121
  125
  130
  136
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -38
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  154
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  238
  80
  80
  81
  82
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  192
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  228
  74
  70
  67
  63
  60
  57
  54
  51
  47
  43
  40
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

J&J Snack Foods Corp. manufactures, markets, and distributes various nutritional snack foods and beverages to the food service and retail supermarket industries in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The company operates through three segments: Food Service, Retail Supermarkets, and Frozen Beverages. It offers soft pretzels under the SUPERPRETZEL, PRETZEL FILLERS, PRETZELFILS, GOURMET TWISTS, MR. TWISTER, SOFT PRETZEL BITES, SOFTSTIX, SOFT PRETZEL BUNS, TEXAS TWIST, BAVARIAN BAKERY, NEW YORK PRETZEL, KIM & SCOTT’S GOURMET PRETZELS, and SERIOUSLY TWISTED! brand names, as well as under the private labels. The company also provides frozen juice treats and desserts primarily under the LUIGI’S, WHOLE FRUIT, PHILLY SWIRL, ICEE, and MINUTE MAID brands; churros under the TIO PEPE’S, CALIFORNIA CHURROS, and OREO brand names; and dough enrobed handheld products under the PATIO, SUPREME STUFFERS, and SWEET STUFFERS brands. In addition, it offers bakery products, such as biscuits, fig and fruit bars, cookies, breads, rolls, crumbs, muffins, and donuts under the MRS. GOODCOOKIE, READI-BAKE, COUNTRY HOME, MARY B’S, and DADDY RAY’S brand names, as well as under private labels; and frozen beverages primarily under the ICEE, SLUSH PUPPIE, and PARROT ICE names. Further, the company provides soft drinks and funnel cakes under the FUNNEL CAKE FACTORY brand name. It serves snack bars and food stands in chains; department and mass merchandising stores; malls and shopping centers; fast food outlets; casual dining restaurants; stadiums and sports arenas; leisure and theme parks; convenience stores; movie theatres; warehouse club stores; schools, colleges, and other institutions; and independent retailers. The company sells its products through a network of food brokers and independent sales distributors; and direct sales force. J&J Snack Foods Corp. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Pennsauken, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  J&J Snack Foods (JJSF)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.3%
Total Debt to Equity 0.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Total Capital 12.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Return On Equity 12.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.5%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.9%
EBITDA Margin 15.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Operating Margin 11.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Net Profit Margin 7.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.9%
Payout Ratio 38.2%

JJSF stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JJSF stock intrinsic value calculation we used $993 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by J&J Snack Foods. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of J&J Snack Foods. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JJSF stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JJSF is calculated based on our internal credit rating of J&J Snack Foods, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of J&J Snack Foods.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JJSF stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $4 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JJSF stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for J&J Snack Foods.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for J&J Snack Foods. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JJSF stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JJSF are equal to 22.4%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in J&J Snack Foods operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JJSF is equal to 10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $638 million for J&J Snack Foods - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.663 million for J&J Snack Foods is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of J&J Snack Foods at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ J & J Snack Foods Schedules Second Quarter Conference Call   [Apr-12-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ J&J Snack Foods Introduces Pillsbury® Churro Bites   [Apr-11-17 09:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ This Sparkling Food Retailer Looks Bright   [Feb-19-17 10:10PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ J & J Snack Foods Schedules First Quarter Conference Call   [Jan-12-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Big Lots, Inc. (BIG) Stacks Up To Its Peers   [Dec-01-16 10:44PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ J & J Snack Foods Schedules Fourth Quarter Conference Call   [Oct-24-16 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of JJSF Financial statements of JJSF
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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