Intrinsic value of JMP Group - JMP

Previous Close

$5.43

  Intrinsic Value

$1.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

  Value-price divergence*

+37%

Previous close

$5.43

 
Intrinsic value

$1.45

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+37%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as JMP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.74
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  169
  172
  176
  181
  186
  192
  198
  205
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  529
  554
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
  532
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  167
  165
  169
  173
  178
  184
  190
  196
  203
  211
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
  268
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  484
  507
  532
Operating income, $m
  3
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
EBITDA, $m
  4
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  28
  13
  20
  27
  36
  45
  56
  67
  80
  93
  107
  122
  139
  156
  174
  194
  214
  236
  260
  284
  310
  337
  366
  396
  428
  462
  497
  534
  573
  615
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  -21
  -6
  -12
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -71
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -182
  -202
  -223
  -246
  -270
  -295
  -321
  -349
  -379
  -410
  -443
  -477
  -514
  -552
  -592
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  3
  -21
  -6
  -12
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -71
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -182
  -202
  -223
  -246
  -270
  -295
  -321
  -349
  -379
  -410
  -443
  -477
  -514
  -552
  -592

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  85
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,126
  1,064
  1,089
  1,117
  1,148
  1,183
  1,221
  1,262
  1,308
  1,356
  1,408
  1,464
  1,523
  1,586
  1,654
  1,725
  1,801
  1,881
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,354
  2,464
  2,581
  2,704
  2,833
  2,969
  3,113
  3,263
  3,422
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,041
  1,064
  1,089
  1,117
  1,148
  1,183
  1,221
  1,262
  1,308
  1,356
  1,408
  1,464
  1,523
  1,586
  1,654
  1,725
  1,801
  1,881
  1,965
  2,055
  2,149
  2,249
  2,354
  2,464
  2,581
  2,704
  2,833
  2,969
  3,113
  3,263
  3,422
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
  0.162
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
Total debt, $m
  92
  43
  65
  90
  118
  149
  184
  221
  262
  305
  352
  402
  456
  513
  573
  637
  705
  777
  854
  934
  1,019
  1,109
  1,203
  1,303
  1,408
  1,518
  1,635
  1,757
  1,886
  2,022
  2,165
Total liabilities, $m
  1,006
  958
  980
  1,005
  1,033
  1,064
  1,099
  1,136
  1,177
  1,220
  1,267
  1,317
  1,371
  1,428
  1,488
  1,552
  1,620
  1,692
  1,769
  1,849
  1,934
  2,024
  2,118
  2,218
  2,323
  2,433
  2,550
  2,672
  2,801
  2,937
  3,080
Total equity, $m
  119
  106
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  205
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
  311
  326
  342
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,125
  1,064
  1,089
  1,117
  1,148
  1,182
  1,221
  1,262
  1,308
  1,356
  1,408
  1,463
  1,523
  1,587
  1,653
  1,724
  1,800
  1,880
  1,966
  2,054
  2,149
  2,249
  2,353
  2,464
  2,581
  2,703
  2,833
  2,969
  3,112
  3,263
  3,422
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.773
  0.400
  0.590
  0.800
  1.030
  1.260
  1.510
  1.750
  2.000
  2.250
  2.500
  2.750
  2.990
  3.230
  3.470
  3.700
  3.920
  4.130
  4.340
  4.550
  4.740
  4.930
  5.110
  5.290
  5.450
  5.620
  5.770
  5.920
  6.060
  6.200
  6.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.033
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  -21
  -6
  -12
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -71
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -182
  -202
  -223
  -246
  -270
  -295
  -321
  -349
  -379
  -410
  -443
  -477
  -514
  -552
  -592
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -16
  -21
  -6
  -12
  -20
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -71
  -83
  -97
  -112
  -128
  -145
  -163
  -182
  -202
  -223
  -246
  -270
  -295
  -321
  -349
  -379
  -410
  -443
  -477
  -514
  -552
  -592
Change in working capital, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  -21
  -5
  -12
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -47
  -58
  -70
  -83
  -96
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -162
  -181
  -201
  -222
  -244
  -268
  -293
  -320
  -348
  -377
  -408
  -441
  -475
  -511
  -549
  -589
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  63
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  -21
  -5
  -12
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -47
  -58
  -70
  -83
  -96
  -111
  -127
  -144
  -162
  -181
  -201
  -222
  -244
  -268
  -293
  -320
  -348
  -377
  -408
  -441
  -475
  -511
  -549
  -589
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -49
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  123
  129
  136
  143
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  93
  8
  15
  23
  32
  41
  52
  63
  75
  89
  103
  118
  134
  152
  170
  189
  210
  232
  255
  279
  305
  332
  360
  391
  422
  456
  491
  528
  567
  608
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -82
  44
  30
  40
  51
  63
  75
  89
  104
  119
  136
  153
  171
  191
  212
  234
  257
  282
  308
  335
  364
  395
  427
  460
  496
  533
  572
  614
  657
  703
  751
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -23
  23
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  146
  153
  161
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -93
  -8
  -15
  -23
  -32
  -41
  -52
  -63
  -75
  -89
  -103
  -118
  -134
  -152
  -170
  -189
  -210
  -232
  -255
  -279
  -305
  -332
  -360
  -391
  -422
  -456
  -491
  -528
  -567
  -608
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  85
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  15
  17
  13
  9
  4
  -2
  -9
  -17
  -26
  -36
  -46
  -58
  -70
  -83
  -97
  -113
  -129
  -146
  -164
  -183
  -204
  -225
  -248
  -272
  -297
  -324
  -353
  -382
  -414
  -447
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  14
  15
  12
  7
  3
  -2
  -6
  -11
  -15
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -9
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  25.4
  23.5
  20.4
  16.8
  13.0
  9.4
  6.5
  4.2
  2.6
  1.5
  0.9
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

JMP Group LLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides investment banking and asset management services in the United States. It operates through Broker-Dealer, Asset Management, and Corporate Credit Management segments. The Broker-Dealer segment offers services, such as underwriting and acting as a placement agent for public and private capital markets raising transactions; and financial advisory services in mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and other strategic transactions. This segment also provides institutional brokerage services and equity research services to institutional investor clients. The Asset Management segment is involved in the management of a range of pooled investment vehicles, including the hedge funds and hedge funds of funds. The Corporate Credit Management segment includes the management of collateralized loan obligations and small business loans. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  JMP Group (JMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 37.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -28.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -16.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 200%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 77.3%
Total Debt to Equity 77.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 1.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Return On Equity 2.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 82.3%
EBITDA Margin 18.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.3%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate -133.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.6%
Payout Ratio 333.3%

JMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $169 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by JMP Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of JMP Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of JMP Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of JMP Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 30.4% for JMP Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for JMP Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JMP are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in JMP Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JMP is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $119 million for JMP Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.478 million for JMP Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of JMP Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Investor Network: JMP Group LLC to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-02-17 07:25AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ JMP reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 11:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ JMP Group Declares Third Quarter 2017 Monthly Distributions   [Jul-20-17 04:20PM  Business Wire]
▶ JMP Group Announces Closing of CLO Transaction   [Jun-30-17 06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ JMP reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ JMP posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ JMP Group Declares First Quarter 2017 Monthly Distributions   [Jan-19-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ How Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc (XENE) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-20-16 12:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tech IPOs and Mega Mergers: What to Expect in 2017   [Nov-22-16 08:03PM  at Bloomberg]
▶ JMP Group Announces JMP Bryan Garnier Strategic Alliance   [Nov-08-16 06:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ JMP Group Declares Third Quarter 2016 Monthly Distributions   [Jul-18-16 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Mortgage Rates: Brexit Or No, Borrowing Is Cheap   [Jun-23-16 12:35PM  at Forbes]
▶ JPMorgan Chase and GoPro Inc. Jump As Stocks Soar -- Again   [Apr-13-16 07:43PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of JMP Financial statements of JMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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