Intrinsic value of Juniper Pharmaceuticals - JNP

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$4.40

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$4.40

 
Intrinsic value

$609.37

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JNP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  44.74
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  55
  88
  136
  203
  295
  416
  572
  768
  1,009
  1,298
  1,639
  2,035
  2,489
  3,000
  3,569
  4,196
  4,881
  5,623
  6,420
  7,271
  8,175
  9,130
  10,136
  11,192
  12,297
  13,451
  14,655
  15,908
  17,212
  18,568
  19,978
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  46
  70
  105
  152
  214
  294
  394
  518
  666
  841
  1,043
  1,275
  1,537
  1,829
  2,150
  2,501
  2,881
  3,290
  3,726
  4,189
  4,679
  5,194
  5,735
  6,302
  6,893
  7,510
  8,152
  8,821
  9,515
  10,238
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
Total operating expenses, $m
  49
  68
  92
  128
  175
  238
  318
  419
  544
  692
  868
  1,071
  1,303
  1,566
  1,859
  2,180
  2,532
  2,913
  3,323
  3,760
  4,223
  4,714
  5,230
  5,772
  6,340
  6,932
  7,550
  8,193
  8,863
  9,558
  10,282
Operating income, $m
  5
  21
  43
  76
  120
  178
  254
  349
  465
  606
  771
  965
  1,185
  1,433
  1,710
  2,016
  2,349
  2,709
  3,097
  3,511
  3,951
  4,416
  4,906
  5,419
  5,957
  6,519
  7,105
  7,715
  8,350
  9,010
  9,696
EBITDA, $m
  7
  23
  47
  80
  126
  187
  265
  363
  484
  629
  801
  1,001
  1,229
  1,486
  1,773
  2,089
  2,435
  2,809
  3,210
  3,639
  4,095
  4,577
  5,084
  5,616
  6,174
  6,756
  7,363
  7,995
  8,653
  9,337
  10,048
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  47
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  128
  140
  153
  167
  182
  196
  212
Earnings before tax, $m
  6
  21
  43
  75
  118
  176
  250
  343
  457
  595
  757
  947
  1,162
  1,406
  1,677
  1,975
  2,301
  2,654
  3,033
  3,438
  3,868
  4,323
  4,802
  5,304
  5,830
  6,379
  6,952
  7,548
  8,168
  8,814
  9,484
Tax expense, $m
  0
  6
  12
  20
  32
  47
  67
  93
  123
  161
  204
  256
  314
  379
  453
  533
  621
  717
  819
  928
  1,044
  1,167
  1,296
  1,432
  1,574
  1,722
  1,877
  2,038
  2,205
  2,380
  2,561
Net income, $m
  6
  15
  31
  55
  86
  128
  182
  250
  334
  434
  553
  691
  848
  1,026
  1,224
  1,442
  1,680
  1,938
  2,214
  2,510
  2,824
  3,156
  3,505
  3,872
  4,256
  4,657
  5,075
  5,510
  5,963
  6,434
  6,923

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  58
  59
  91
  137
  199
  280
  385
  517
  679
  873
  1,103
  1,370
  1,675
  2,019
  2,402
  2,824
  3,285
  3,784
  4,320
  4,893
  5,501
  6,144
  6,821
  7,531
  8,275
  9,052
  9,862
  10,705
  11,583
  12,496
  13,444
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  37
  59
  91
  137
  199
  280
  385
  517
  679
  873
  1,103
  1,370
  1,675
  2,019
  2,402
  2,824
  3,285
  3,784
  4,320
  4,893
  5,501
  6,144
  6,821
  7,531
  8,275
  9,052
  9,862
  10,705
  11,583
  12,496
  13,444
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.486
  1.492
  1.495
  1.482
  1.482
  1.486
  1.486
  1.485
  1.486
  1.487
  1.486
  1.485
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
  1.486
Average production assets, $m
  9
  14
  21
  32
  46
  65
  89
  119
  156
  201
  254
  315
  386
  465
  553
  650
  757
  872
  995
  1,127
  1,267
  1,415
  1,571
  1,735
  1,906
  2,085
  2,271
  2,466
  2,668
  2,878
  3,097
Working capital, $m
  20
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -76
  -88
  -101
  -116
  -131
  -147
  -164
  -182
  -201
  -221
  -242
  -264
  -286
  -310
  -334
  -360
Total debt, $m
  2
  13
  28
  50
  80
  120
  171
  235
  314
  408
  520
  650
  798
  965
  1,151
  1,356
  1,580
  1,823
  2,084
  2,362
  2,658
  2,970
  3,299
  3,644
  4,006
  4,383
  4,777
  5,187
  5,613
  6,057
  6,518
Total liabilities, $m
  17
  29
  44
  66
  96
  136
  187
  251
  330
  424
  536
  666
  814
  981
  1,167
  1,372
  1,596
  1,839
  2,100
  2,378
  2,674
  2,986
  3,315
  3,660
  4,022
  4,399
  4,793
  5,203
  5,629
  6,073
  6,534
Total equity, $m
  40
  30
  47
  70
  102
  144
  198
  266
  349
  449
  567
  704
  861
  1,038
  1,234
  1,452
  1,688
  1,945
  2,221
  2,515
  2,828
  3,158
  3,506
  3,871
  4,253
  4,653
  5,069
  5,503
  5,954
  6,423
  6,910
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  57
  59
  91
  136
  198
  280
  385
  517
  679
  873
  1,103
  1,370
  1,675
  2,019
  2,401
  2,824
  3,284
  3,784
  4,321
  4,893
  5,502
  6,144
  6,821
  7,531
  8,275
  9,052
  9,862
  10,706
  11,583
  12,496
  13,444
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.050
  0.420
  0.610
  0.720
  0.790
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.920
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.930
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514
  0.514

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  15
  31
  55
  86
  128
  182
  250
  334
  434
  553
  691
  848
  1,026
  1,224
  1,442
  1,680
  1,938
  2,214
  2,510
  2,824
  3,156
  3,505
  3,872
  4,256
  4,657
  5,075
  5,510
  5,963
  6,434
  6,923
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  19
  24
  30
  36
  44
  53
  63
  74
  86
  99
  113
  128
  144
  161
  179
  197
  217
  237
  258
  280
  303
  327
  352
Funds from operations, $m
  13
  17
  35
  59
  92
  136
  193
  265
  352
  458
  582
  727
  892
  1,079
  1,287
  1,516
  1,766
  2,037
  2,327
  2,638
  2,968
  3,317
  3,684
  4,069
  4,472
  4,893
  5,333
  5,790
  6,266
  6,761
  7,275
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  11
  24
  35
  60
  94
  138
  196
  268
  357
  463
  589
  734
  900
  1,088
  1,297
  1,527
  1,778
  2,050
  2,342
  2,653
  2,984
  3,334
  3,702
  4,088
  4,492
  4,914
  5,354
  5,813
  6,290
  6,785
  7,301
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -99
  -113
  -128
  -144
  -161
  -179
  -197
  -217
  -237
  -258
  -280
  -303
  -327
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -218
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -18
  -24
  -31
  -40
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -90
  -106
  -123
  -141
  -160
  -180
  -201
  -223
  -245
  -268
  -292
  -317
  -343
  -368
  -396
  -424
  -452
  -482
  -513
  -545
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  18
  26
  47
  76
  114
  164
  228
  306
  400
  513
  644
  794
  965
  1,156
  1,367
  1,598
  1,849
  2,119
  2,408
  2,716
  3,042
  3,385
  3,746
  4,124
  4,519
  4,931
  5,360
  5,807
  6,272
  6,755
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  51
  64
  79
  95
  112
  130
  148
  167
  186
  205
  224
  243
  261
  278
  296
  312
  329
  345
  361
  378
  394
  410
  427
  444
  461
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  51
  64
  79
  95
  112
  130
  148
  167
  186
  205
  224
  243
  261
  278
  296
  312
  329
  345
  361
  378
  394
  410
  427
  444
  461
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  29
  42
  69
  106
  154
  215
  292
  384
  495
  624
  773
  943
  1,132
  1,342
  1,572
  1,822
  2,092
  2,380
  2,687
  3,012
  3,354
  3,714
  4,091
  4,485
  4,896
  5,325
  5,770
  6,234
  6,715
  7,216
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -11
  -17
  -23
  -32
  -42
  -54
  -68
  -83
  -100
  -118
  -137
  -157
  -177
  -197
  -217
  -237
  -257
  -276
  -294
  -313
  -330
  -348
  -365
  -382
  -399
  -416
  -434
  -451
  -469
  -488
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  39
  26
  46
  74
  112
  161
  224
  301
  395
  506
  636
  786
  955
  1,145
  1,355
  1,585
  1,835
  2,104
  2,392
  2,699
  3,024
  3,366
  3,726
  4,103
  4,497
  4,908
  5,337
  5,783
  6,246
  6,729
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  23
  40
  61
  87
  117
  151
  188
  227
  265
  302
  335
  363
  384
  398
  403
  399
  388
  368
  343
  313
  279
  244
  209
  175
  143
  115
  89
  68
  51
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Juniper Pharmaceuticals, Inc. focuses on developing therapeutics that address unmet medical needs in women's health. The company develops its products using its drug delivery technologies, including bioadhesive delivery system, a polymer designed to adhere to epithelial surfaces or mucosa for sustained and controlled delivery of active drug product; and a novel intra-vaginal ring (IVR) technology. It offers CRINONE, a progesterone gel used for progesterone supplementation or replacement in infertile women with progesterone deficiency. The company is also developing COL-1077, a 10% lidocaine bioadhesive gel, which is in Phase 2b clinical trial for use as an acute use anesthetic for pain from minimally invasive gynecological procedures. Its products in preclinical development include JNP-0101, an oxybutynin IVR to treat overactive bladder; JNP-0201, a product candidate with natural progesterone and natural estradiol for used in hormone replacement therapy in menopausal women; and JNP-0301, a progesterone IVR used for the prevention of preterm birth. In addition, Juniper Pharmaceuticals, Inc. provides pharmaceutical development, clinical trial manufacturing, analytical, and consulting services. The company was formerly known as Columbia Laboratories, Inc. and changed its name to Juniper Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in April 2015. Juniper Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Juniper Pharmaceuticals (JNP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.9
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 44.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5%
Total Debt to Equity 5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 14.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Equity 15.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.3%
EBITDA Margin 14.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Operating Margin 10.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 10.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

JNP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JNP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $55 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Juniper Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Juniper Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JNP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JNP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Juniper Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Juniper Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JNP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 52.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $21 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JNP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Juniper Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Juniper Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JNP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JNP are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Juniper Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JNP is equal to -1.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $40 million for Juniper Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.96 million for Juniper Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Juniper Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.


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