Intrinsic value of GEE Group - JOB

Previous Close

$2.76

  Intrinsic Value

$8.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+219%

Previous close

$2.76

 
Intrinsic value

$8.80

 
Up/down potential

+219%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of JOB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  93.02
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  83
  133
  205
  307
  445
  628
  864
  1,159
  1,522
  1,958
  2,474
  3,072
  3,755
  4,527
  5,386
  6,333
  7,366
  8,486
  9,688
  10,972
  12,336
  13,778
  15,296
  16,889
  18,557
  20,299
  22,115
  24,007
  25,975
  28,021
  30,148
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  122
  188
  280
  405
  570
  783
  1,051
  1,379
  1,774
  2,241
  2,780
  3,399
  4,097
  4,875
  5,732
  6,667
  7,680
  8,769
  9,931
  11,166
  12,470
  13,844
  15,286
  16,796
  18,373
  20,017
  21,729
  23,510
  25,362
  27,288
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  82
  127
  193
  285
  411
  576
  789
  1,057
  1,385
  1,780
  2,247
  2,787
  3,406
  4,104
  4,882
  5,739
  6,674
  7,688
  8,777
  9,939
  11,174
  12,478
  13,853
  15,295
  16,805
  18,382
  20,027
  21,739
  23,520
  25,372
  27,298
Operating income, $m
  1
  6
  12
  22
  35
  52
  74
  102
  136
  178
  226
  285
  350
  423
  504
  594
  692
  798
  912
  1,033
  1,162
  1,299
  1,443
  1,594
  1,752
  1,917
  2,089
  2,268
  2,455
  2,649
  2,850
EBITDA, $m
  3
  9
  16
  26
  41
  60
  84
  114
  152
  197
  250
  312
  383
  463
  552
  650
  757
  873
  998
  1,131
  1,272
  1,421
  1,579
  1,744
  1,917
  2,097
  2,286
  2,482
  2,686
  2,898
  3,118
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  52
  66
  82
  101
  122
  145
  171
  199
  229
  262
  297
  334
  373
  414
  457
  503
  550
  599
  650
  704
  759
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  4
  10
  17
  28
  41
  58
  80
  106
  137
  174
  219
  267
  322
  382
  449
  521
  599
  682
  771
  866
  965
  1,070
  1,180
  1,295
  1,414
  1,539
  1,669
  1,804
  1,945
  2,091
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  22
  29
  37
  47
  59
  72
  87
  103
  121
  141
  162
  184
  208
  234
  261
  289
  319
  350
  382
  416
  451
  487
  525
  565
Net income, $m
  1
  3
  7
  13
  20
  30
  42
  58
  77
  100
  127
  160
  195
  235
  279
  327
  380
  437
  498
  563
  632
  705
  781
  861
  945
  1,032
  1,124
  1,218
  1,317
  1,420
  1,526

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  46
  69
  106
  159
  231
  325
  447
  601
  789
  1,015
  1,282
  1,592
  1,946
  2,345
  2,791
  3,281
  3,817
  4,397
  5,020
  5,685
  6,392
  7,139
  7,925
  8,751
  9,615
  10,518
  11,459
  12,439
  13,459
  14,519
  15,621
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  43
  69
  106
  159
  231
  325
  447
  601
  789
  1,015
  1,282
  1,592
  1,946
  2,345
  2,791
  3,281
  3,817
  4,397
  5,020
  5,685
  6,392
  7,139
  7,925
  8,751
  9,615
  10,518
  11,459
  12,439
  13,459
  14,519
  15,621
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.930
  1.928
  1.934
  1.931
  1.926
  1.932
  1.933
  1.928
  1.929
  1.929
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
  1.930
Average production assets, $m
  8
  13
  20
  29
  43
  60
  83
  111
  146
  188
  237
  295
  361
  435
  517
  608
  707
  815
  930
  1,053
  1,184
  1,323
  1,468
  1,621
  1,781
  1,949
  2,123
  2,305
  2,494
  2,690
  2,894
Working capital, $m
  0
  8
  12
  18
  27
  38
  52
  70
  91
  118
  148
  184
  225
  272
  323
  380
  442
  509
  581
  658
  740
  827
  918
  1,013
  1,113
  1,218
  1,327
  1,440
  1,559
  1,681
  1,809
Total debt, $m
  13
  21
  37
  59
  89
  128
  179
  244
  322
  417
  529
  659
  807
  975
  1,161
  1,367
  1,591
  1,834
  2,095
  2,374
  2,670
  2,983
  3,313
  3,659
  4,021
  4,399
  4,793
  5,204
  5,631
  6,075
  6,537
Total liabilities, $m
  21
  29
  45
  67
  97
  136
  187
  252
  330
  425
  537
  667
  815
  983
  1,169
  1,375
  1,599
  1,842
  2,103
  2,382
  2,678
  2,991
  3,321
  3,667
  4,029
  4,407
  4,801
  5,212
  5,639
  6,083
  6,545
Total equity, $m
  25
  40
  62
  92
  134
  189
  260
  349
  458
  590
  745
  925
  1,131
  1,363
  1,621
  1,906
  2,218
  2,554
  2,916
  3,303
  3,714
  4,148
  4,605
  5,084
  5,586
  6,111
  6,657
  7,227
  7,819
  8,435
  9,076
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  46
  69
  107
  159
  231
  325
  447
  601
  788
  1,015
  1,282
  1,592
  1,946
  2,346
  2,790
  3,281
  3,817
  4,396
  5,019
  5,685
  6,392
  7,139
  7,926
  8,751
  9,615
  10,518
  11,458
  12,439
  13,458
  14,518
  15,621
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.520
  0.520
  0.590
  0.630
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  3
  7
  13
  20
  30
  42
  58
  77
  100
  127
  160
  195
  235
  279
  327
  380
  437
  498
  563
  632
  705
  781
  861
  945
  1,032
  1,124
  1,218
  1,317
  1,420
  1,526
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  10
  12
  15
  19
  24
  27
  33
  40
  48
  56
  65
  75
  86
  98
  110
  122
  136
  150
  165
  180
  197
  213
  231
  249
  268
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  6
  11
  17
  26
  37
  52
  70
  93
  120
  151
  187
  228
  275
  327
  384
  446
  512
  584
  661
  742
  827
  917
  1,011
  1,110
  1,213
  1,320
  1,432
  1,548
  1,669
  1,794
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  3
  6
  11
  18
  26
  38
  53
  71
  93
  120
  151
  187
  229
  275
  327
  384
  445
  512
  584
  660
  741
  826
  916
  1,010
  1,108
  1,211
  1,318
  1,430
  1,546
  1,667
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -56
  -65
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -110
  -122
  -136
  -150
  -165
  -180
  -197
  -213
  -231
  -249
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -35
  -42
  -49
  -57
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -6
  -8
  -12
  -16
  -22
  -29
  -36
  -45
  -56
  -66
  -79
  -93
  -107
  -122
  -139
  -155
  -172
  -190
  -209
  -229
  -248
  -268
  -289
  -310
  -332
  -354
  -379
  -402
  -427
  -453
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -2
  -2
  0
  2
  5
  10
  17
  26
  38
  53
  72
  95
  121
  153
  188
  228
  272
  321
  374
  431
  493
  558
  627
  700
  776
  856
  940
  1,028
  1,119
  1,213
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  51
  64
  79
  95
  112
  130
  148
  167
  187
  206
  224
  243
  261
  279
  296
  313
  330
  346
  362
  378
  394
  411
  427
  444
  462
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  28
  31
  32
  31
  28
  20
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  23
  31
  40
  52
  65
  79
  95
  111
  126
  140
  150
  159
  167
  187
  206
  224
  243
  261
  279
  296
  313
  330
  346
  362
  378
  394
  411
  427
  444
  462
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  20
  29
  40
  53
  70
  89
  112
  137
  164
  193
  222
  254
  289
  339
  394
  452
  515
  582
  653
  727
  806
  887
  973
  1,062
  1,154
  1,251
  1,351
  1,455
  1,563
  1,675
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -15
  -22
  -31
  -42
  -55
  -71
  -89
  -109
  -131
  -155
  -180
  -206
  -232
  -259
  -285
  -311
  -337
  -362
  -387
  -411
  -434
  -457
  -480
  -502
  -524
  -547
  -569
  -592
  -616
  -640
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  23
  27
  32
  38
  42
  48
  57
  80
  109
  141
  178
  220
  266
  317
  372
  430
  493
  560
  630
  704
  781
  862
  947
  1,035
Discount rate, %
 
  5.70
  5.99
  6.28
  6.60
  6.93
  7.27
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.28
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.44
  13.06
  13.72
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.51
  18.38
  19.30
  20.27
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  19
  22
  24
  24
  24
  23
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  69.8
  52.2
  41.2
  33.9
  28.9
  25.4
  22.9
  21.2
  19.9
  19.1
  18.6
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4
  18.4

GEE Group Inc., formerly General Employment Enterprises, Inc., is a provider of specialized staffing solutions. The Company operates through two segments: contract staffing services and direct hire placement. The Company's professional staffing services provide information technology, engineering, medical and accounting professionals to clients on either a regular placement basis or a temporary contract basis. The Company's industrial staffing business provides weekly temporary staffing for light industrial clients, primarily in Ohio. The Company and its subsidiaries provide professional placement services specializing in the placement of information technology, engineering, and accounting professionals, and medical data entry assistants (medical scribes) specializing in electronic medical records (EMR) services for emergency departments, specialty physician practices and clinics, for direct hire and contract staffing, and temporary staffing services in light industrial staffing.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  GEE Group (JOB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.9
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 93%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 20%
Total Debt to Equity 52%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.8%
Return On Equity 4.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.7%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 4.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

JOB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JOB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $83 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by GEE Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of GEE Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JOB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.7%, whose default value for JOB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of GEE Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of GEE Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JOB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JOB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 12.5% for GEE Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for GEE Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JOB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JOB are equal to 9.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in GEE Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JOB is equal to 6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $25 million for GEE Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.879 million for GEE Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of GEE Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to GEE Group, Inc. : December 14, 2017   [Dec-14-17 01:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GEE Group, Inc. : November 15, 2017   [Nov-15-17 11:59AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GEE Group, Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 10:54AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Have Investors Already Priced In Gee Group Incs (JOB) Growth?   [Sep-06-17 03:38PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GEE Group, Inc. : August 29, 2017   [Aug-29-17 07:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ GEE Group to Present at Marcum MicroCap Conference   [Jun-12-17 06:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ GEE Group to Present at Stifel Industrials Conference   [Jun-05-17 06:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GEE Group, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to GEE Group, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 04:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ StartMonday Ramps Up for Growth in 2017   [Jan-09-17 04:00AM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of JOB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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