Intrinsic value of St. Joe - JOE

Previous Close

$18.90

  Intrinsic Value

$2.37

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$18.90

 
Intrinsic value

$2.37

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as JOE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of JOE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  96
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
  315
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  94
  104
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
Operating income, $m
  2
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
EBITDA, $m
  11
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
Tax expense, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  16
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  241
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,028
  803
  821
  842
  866
  892
  921
  952
  986
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,247
  1,301
  1,358
  1,418
  1,482
  1,550
  1,621
  1,696
  1,775
  1,859
  1,947
  2,040
  2,137
  2,240
  2,348
  2,462
  2,581
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  787
  803
  821
  842
  866
  892
  921
  952
  986
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,247
  1,301
  1,358
  1,418
  1,482
  1,550
  1,621
  1,696
  1,775
  1,859
  1,947
  2,040
  2,137
  2,240
  2,348
  2,462
  2,581
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
  0.122
Average production assets, $m
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Working capital, $m
  0
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
Total debt, $m
  231
  59
  63
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  119
  129
  140
  151
  163
  175
  188
  203
  217
  233
  250
  267
  286
  305
  326
  347
  370
  394
  419
  446
  473
Total liabilities, $m
  359
  187
  191
  196
  202
  208
  215
  222
  230
  238
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  331
  345
  361
  378
  395
  414
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  547
  574
  601
Total equity, $m
  669
  616
  630
  646
  664
  684
  706
  730
  756
  785
  815
  847
  881
  918
  957
  998
  1,042
  1,088
  1,137
  1,189
  1,243
  1,301
  1,362
  1,426
  1,493
  1,564
  1,639
  1,718
  1,801
  1,888
  1,980
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,028
  803
  821
  842
  866
  892
  921
  952
  986
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,248
  1,301
  1,358
  1,419
  1,482
  1,550
  1,621
  1,696
  1,776
  1,859
  1,947
  2,039
  2,137
  2,240
  2,348
  2,462
  2,581
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.345
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767
  0.767

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
Change in working capital, $m
  -36
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  21
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  128
  135
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -6
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  106
  112
  119
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  163
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  17
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -135
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  61
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  59
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.3
  96.5
  94.5
  92.5
  90.4
  88.2
  86.0
  83.8
  81.6
  79.3
  77.1
  74.9
  72.7
  70.5
  68.4
  66.3
  64.2
  62.2
  60.2
  58.2
  56.3
  54.5
  52.7
  50.9
  49.2
  47.5
  45.9
  44.3
  42.8
  41.3

The St. Joe Company is a real estate development, asset management and operating company. The Company operates through five segments: residential real estate; commercial real estate; resorts and leisure; leasing operations, and forestry. Its residential real estate segment plans and develops primary residential and resort residential communities of various sizes on its existing land. Its commercial real estate segment plans, develops, manages and sells real estate. Resorts and leisure segment features a portfolio of vacation rentals and hotel operations, as well as golf courses, a beach club, marinas and other related resort amenities. Its leasing operations business includes its retail and commercial leasing. Its forestry segment focuses on the management of its timber holdings in Northwest Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  St. Joe (JOE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 87.8
Price to Sales 14.6
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 108.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 175.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -26.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 8.2%
Total Debt to Equity 34.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
Return On Equity 2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.5%
EBITDA Margin 45.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.6%
Operating Margin 2.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 24%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.5%
Net Profit Margin 16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Effective Tax Rate 34.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

JOE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JOE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $96 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by St. Joe. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of St. Joe. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JOE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JOE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of St. Joe, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of St. Joe.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JOE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 106.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JOE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for St. Joe.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for St. Joe. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JOE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JOE are equal to 9.9%.

Life of production assets of 1.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in St. Joe operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JOE is equal to -67.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $669 million for St. Joe - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.526 million for St. Joe is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of St. Joe at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to The St. Joe Co. : October 9, 2017   [Oct-09-17 11:42AM  Capital Cube]
▶ The St. Joe Company Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The St. Joe Co. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The St. Joe Company Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [May-04-17 04:08PM  Business Wire]
▶ The St. Joe Company and HomeCorp Announce Joint Venture   [Apr-13-17 05:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to The St. Joe Co. : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 01:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is St. Joe Co (JOE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-11-16 05:58AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ FAIRX: The Fairholme Fund's Top 5 Holdings Analysis   [Apr-09-16 09:00PM  at Investopedia]
▶ The Top 5 Positions in Bruce Berkowitz's Portfolio (SHLD, AIG)   [Feb-28-16 09:25AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Is The St. Joe Company (JOE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-26  05:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of JOE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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