Intrinsic value of Juno Therapeutics - JUNO

Previous Close

$45.75

  Intrinsic Value

$1.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$45.75

 
Intrinsic value

$1.92

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of JUNO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  338.89
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  79
  81
  82
  85
  87
  90
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
  205
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  234
  239
  245
  251
  258
  265
  274
  283
  292
  303
  292
  303
  316
  329
  344
  359
  375
  392
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  514
  539
  565
  592
  620
  650
  682
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  220
  226
  232
  237
  243
  249
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  296
  304
  311
  319
  327
  335
  344
  352
  361
  370
  379
  389
  399
  409
  419
  429
  440
  451
Total operating expenses, $m
  340
  454
  465
  477
  488
  501
  514
  530
  545
  561
  578
  574
  592
  612
  633
  655
  678
  702
  727
  753
  780
  809
  839
  870
  903
  938
  974
  1,011
  1,049
  1,090
  1,133
Operating income, $m
  -261
  -374
  -382
  -392
  -401
  -411
  -422
  -434
  -446
  -458
  -471
  -463
  -477
  -492
  -508
  -524
  -542
  -559
  -578
  -598
  -618
  -639
  -661
  -684
  -708
  -733
  -759
  -786
  -814
  -843
  -874
EBITDA, $m
  -247
  -346
  -354
  -363
  -373
  -383
  -393
  -404
  -416
  -428
  -441
  -455
  -469
  -483
  -499
  -515
  -531
  -549
  -567
  -586
  -606
  -626
  -648
  -670
  -693
  -717
  -742
  -769
  -796
  -825
  -854
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
Earnings before tax, $m
  -256
  -374
  -383
  -392
  -402
  -413
  -424
  -436
  -448
  -461
  -475
  -467
  -482
  -497
  -513
  -531
  -548
  -567
  -586
  -606
  -627
  -649
  -672
  -696
  -721
  -747
  -774
  -802
  -832
  -862
  -894
Tax expense, $m
  -10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -246
  -374
  -383
  -392
  -402
  -413
  -424
  -436
  -448
  -461
  -475
  -467
  -482
  -497
  -513
  -531
  -548
  -567
  -586
  -606
  -627
  -649
  -672
  -696
  -721
  -747
  -774
  -802
  -832
  -862
  -894

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  733
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,349
  630
  644
  661
  679
  700
  722
  747
  774
  802
  833
  866
  901
  939
  978
  1,021
  1,065
  1,113
  1,163
  1,216
  1,271
  1,330
  1,392
  1,458
  1,527
  1,600
  1,676
  1,757
  1,842
  1,931
  2,025
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  616
  630
  644
  661
  679
  700
  722
  747
  774
  802
  833
  866
  901
  939
  978
  1,021
  1,065
  1,113
  1,163
  1,216
  1,271
  1,330
  1,392
  1,458
  1,527
  1,600
  1,676
  1,757
  1,842
  1,931
  2,025
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.128
  0.129
  0.127
  0.129
  0.128
  0.129
  0.127
  0.129
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
  0.128
Average production assets, $m
  126
  128
  131
  134
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  259
  271
  283
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  375
  393
  412
Working capital, $m
  657
  -78
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -249
Total debt, $m
  13
  19
  25
  33
  41
  50
  60
  71
  82
  95
  109
  123
  138
  155
  172
  191
  211
  232
  254
  277
  301
  327
  355
  384
  414
  446
  480
  515
  552
  592
  633
Total liabilities, $m
  272
  277
  283
  291
  299
  308
  318
  329
  340
  353
  367
  381
  396
  413
  430
  449
  469
  490
  512
  535
  559
  585
  613
  642
  672
  704
  738
  773
  810
  850
  891
Total equity, $m
  1,078
  353
  361
  370
  380
  392
  405
  418
  433
  449
  466
  485
  505
  526
  548
  571
  597
  623
  651
  681
  712
  745
  780
  816
  855
  896
  939
  984
  1,031
  1,081
  1,134
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,350
  630
  644
  661
  679
  700
  723
  747
  773
  802
  833
  866
  901
  939
  978
  1,020
  1,066
  1,113
  1,163
  1,216
  1,271
  1,330
  1,393
  1,458
  1,527
  1,600
  1,677
  1,757
  1,841
  1,931
  2,025
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.012
  0.050
  0.070
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.250
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.420
  0.440
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560
  0.560

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -246
  -374
  -383
  -392
  -402
  -413
  -424
  -436
  -448
  -461
  -475
  -467
  -482
  -497
  -513
  -531
  -548
  -567
  -586
  -606
  -627
  -649
  -672
  -696
  -721
  -747
  -774
  -802
  -832
  -862
  -894
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  -215
  -346
  -355
  -364
  -374
  -384
  -395
  -406
  -419
  -431
  -444
  -458
  -473
  -488
  -504
  -521
  -538
  -556
  -575
  -595
  -615
  -637
  -659
  -682
  -706
  -732
  -758
  -786
  -814
  -844
  -875
Change in working capital, $m
  -25
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  -190
  -345
  -353
  -362
  -371
  -382
  -392
  -403
  -415
  -428
  -441
  -454
  -469
  -484
  -499
  -516
  -533
  -550
  -569
  -588
  -608
  -629
  -651
  -674
  -698
  -723
  -749
  -776
  -804
  -833
  -863
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
New CAPEX, $m
  -56
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
Cash from investing activities, $m
  89
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
Free cash flow, $m
  -101
  -353
  -362
  -372
  -382
  -392
  -403
  -415
  -428
  -441
  -455
  -469
  -484
  -500
  -516
  -533
  -551
  -570
  -590
  -610
  -631
  -654
  -677
  -701
  -726
  -752
  -780
  -808
  -838
  -869
  -901
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  42
  382
  391
  402
  413
  424
  437
  449
  463
  477
  492
  485
  501
  518
  536
  554
  573
  593
  614
  636
  659
  682
  707
  733
  760
  788
  817
  847
  879
  912
  947
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  37
  388
  397
  409
  421
  433
  447
  460
  475
  490
  506
  499
  516
  534
  553
  573
  593
  614
  636
  659
  684
  708
  734
  762
  790
  820
  851
  882
  916
  951
  988
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -65
  35
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  64
  -382
  -391
  -402
  -413
  -424
  -437
  -449
  -463
  -477
  -492
  -485
  -501
  -518
  -536
  -554
  -573
  -593
  -614
  -636
  -659
  -682
  -707
  -733
  -760
  -788
  -817
  -847
  -879
  -912
  -947
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  733
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  386
  -356
  -364
  -373
  -383
  -394
  -405
  -416
  -428
  -441
  -455
  -469
  -483
  -499
  -515
  -532
  -549
  -568
  -587
  -607
  -628
  -649
  -672
  -696
  -720
  -746
  -773
  -800
  -830
  -860
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  370
  -326
  -317
  -307
  -297
  -286
  -273
  -260
  -246
  -231
  -216
  -200
  -184
  -167
  -151
  -135
  -120
  -105
  -90
  -77
  -65
  -54
  -44
  -35
  -28
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -9
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.1
  65.7
  53.2
  43.0
  34.8
  28.2
  22.8
  18.5
  15.0
  12.2
  10.0
  8.2
  6.8
  5.6
  4.6
  3.8
  3.1
  2.6
  2.1
  1.8
  1.5
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3

Juno Therapeutics, Inc. (Juno) is a biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on developing cellular immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. The Company is developing cell-based cancer immunotherapies based on its chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) and T cell receptor (TCR) technologies to genetically engineer T cells to recognize and kill cancer cells. Its product candidates JCAR017, JCAR014, and JCAR015, as well as an additional early stage product candidate incorporating a fully human binding domain, leverage CAR technology to target CD19, a protein expressed on the surface of almost all B cell leukemias and lymphomas. Its CAR product candidate JCAR018 targets CD22, a different protein commonly expressed on the surface of B cell leukemias and lymphomas. Its MUC-16 directed product candidate is an armored CAR that secretes the cytokine interleukin 12 (IL-12), which may help to overcome the inhibitory effects that the tumor microenvironment can have on T cell activity.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Juno Therapeutics (JUNO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -19.2
Price to Sales 59.9
Price to Book 4.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -24.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 338.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.2%
Total Debt to Equity 1.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -17.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.7%
Return On Total Capital -21.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.1%
Return On Equity -22.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -306.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -539.1%
Operating Margin -330.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -562%
Pre-Tax Margin -324.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -556.2%
Net Profit Margin -311.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -546.4%
Effective Tax Rate 3.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

JUNO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the JUNO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $79 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Juno Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Juno Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our JUNO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for JUNO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Juno Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Juno Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of JUNO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 291.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $215 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for JUNO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Juno Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Juno Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the JUNO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for JUNO are equal to 158.9%.

Life of production assets of 21.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Juno Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for JUNO is equal to -96.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1078 million for Juno Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.645 million for Juno Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Juno Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.1 billion.

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Financial statements of JUNO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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