Intrinsic value of Kelly Services Cl A - KELYA

Previous Close

$23.54

  Intrinsic Value

$11.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-50%

  Value-price divergence*

+113%

Previous close

$23.54

 
Intrinsic value

$11.71

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+113%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KELYA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.37
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  5,277
  5,383
  5,506
  5,648
  5,807
  5,983
  6,176
  6,386
  6,614
  6,859
  7,122
  7,404
  7,705
  8,025
  8,365
  8,725
  9,108
  9,513
  9,941
  10,393
  10,870
  11,374
  11,906
  12,466
  13,056
  13,677
  14,332
  15,021
  15,745
  16,508
  17,310
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,312
  5,434
  5,574
  5,730
  5,904
  6,094
  6,301
  6,526
  6,767
  7,027
  7,295
  7,592
  7,907
  8,242
  8,597
  8,974
  9,373
  9,795
  10,240
  10,711
  11,207
  11,731
  12,283
  12,864
  13,477
  14,122
  14,800
  15,514
  16,266
  17,056
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,214
  5,315
  5,437
  5,577
  5,733
  5,907
  6,097
  6,305
  6,530
  6,771
  7,031
  7,299
  7,596
  7,911
  8,246
  8,601
  8,978
  9,378
  9,800
  10,245
  10,716
  11,212
  11,736
  12,288
  12,869
  13,483
  14,128
  14,806
  15,520
  16,272
  17,062
Operating income, $m
  63
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  169
  178
  186
  195
  205
  214
  225
  236
  248
EBITDA, $m
  84
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
  184
  192
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
  255
  268
  281
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  0
  2
  5
  8
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  106
  115
  126
  137
  148
  161
  173
  187
  201
  216
  232
Earnings before tax, $m
  150
  67
  67
  66
  65
  65
  64
  63
  62
  60
  59
  66
  65
  63
  62
  60
  58
  56
  54
  51
  49
  46
  44
  41
  38
  35
  31
  28
  24
  20
  16
Tax expense, $m
  30
  18
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  18
  18
  17
  17
  16
  16
  15
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
Net income, $m
  121
  49
  49
  48
  48
  47
  46
  46
  45
  44
  43
  49
  47
  46
  45
  44
  42
  41
  39
  37
  36
  34
  32
  30
  28
  25
  23
  20
  17
  15
  12

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,028
  2,038
  2,085
  2,139
  2,199
  2,265
  2,338
  2,418
  2,504
  2,597
  2,697
  2,804
  2,917
  3,038
  3,167
  3,304
  3,449
  3,602
  3,764
  3,935
  4,116
  4,307
  4,508
  4,720
  4,944
  5,179
  5,427
  5,687
  5,962
  6,251
  6,554
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,998
  2,038
  2,085
  2,139
  2,199
  2,265
  2,338
  2,418
  2,504
  2,597
  2,697
  2,804
  2,917
  3,038
  3,167
  3,304
  3,449
  3,602
  3,764
  3,935
  4,116
  4,307
  4,508
  4,720
  4,944
  5,179
  5,427
  5,687
  5,962
  6,251
  6,554
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.640
  2.641
  2.642
  2.642
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.642
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
  2.641
Average production assets, $m
  86
  86
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
Working capital, $m
  444
  420
  429
  441
  453
  467
  482
  498
  516
  535
  556
  578
  601
  626
  652
  681
  710
  742
  775
  811
  848
  887
  929
  972
  1,018
  1,067
  1,118
  1,172
  1,228
  1,288
  1,350
Total debt, $m
  0
  21
  45
  73
  103
  137
  174
  215
  259
  306
  357
  411
  469
  531
  596
  666
  739
  817
  900
  987
  1,079
  1,176
  1,279
  1,387
  1,500
  1,620
  1,746
  1,879
  2,019
  2,166
  2,320
Total liabilities, $m
  1,016
  1,037
  1,061
  1,089
  1,119
  1,153
  1,190
  1,231
  1,275
  1,322
  1,373
  1,427
  1,485
  1,547
  1,612
  1,682
  1,755
  1,833
  1,916
  2,003
  2,095
  2,192
  2,295
  2,403
  2,516
  2,636
  2,762
  2,895
  3,035
  3,182
  3,336
Total equity, $m
  1,012
  1,001
  1,024
  1,050
  1,080
  1,112
  1,148
  1,187
  1,230
  1,275
  1,324
  1,377
  1,432
  1,492
  1,555
  1,622
  1,693
  1,769
  1,848
  1,932
  2,021
  2,115
  2,213
  2,318
  2,427
  2,543
  2,664
  2,793
  2,927
  3,069
  3,218
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,028
  2,038
  2,085
  2,139
  2,199
  2,265
  2,338
  2,418
  2,505
  2,597
  2,697
  2,804
  2,917
  3,039
  3,167
  3,304
  3,448
  3,602
  3,764
  3,935
  4,116
  4,307
  4,508
  4,721
  4,943
  5,179
  5,426
  5,688
  5,962
  6,251
  6,554
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.040
  0.070
  0.100
  0.120
  0.150
  0.180
  0.210
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491
  0.491

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  49
  49
  48
  48
  47
  46
  46
  45
  44
  43
  49
  47
  46
  45
  44
  42
  41
  39
  37
  36
  34
  32
  30
  28
  25
  23
  20
  17
  15
  12
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  68
  68
  68
  68
  67
  67
  67
  66
  66
  66
  63
  62
  62
  61
  61
  60
  59
  58
  58
  57
  56
  55
  54
  53
  52
  50
  49
  48
  46
  45
Change in working capital, $m
  -40
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  59
  63
Cash from operations, $m
  37
  60
  58
  57
  55
  54
  52
  50
  49
  47
  45
  41
  39
  37
  35
  32
  30
  28
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  7
  3
  -1
  -5
  -9
  -13
  -18
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  10
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
Free cash flow, $m
  47
  49
  46
  44
  42
  40
  37
  35
  33
  30
  28
  23
  20
  17
  14
  10
  7
  4
  0
  -4
  -8
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -56
  -62
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -56
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  6
  4
  8
  13
  18
  23
  29
  34
  40
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  82
  90
  99
  108
  117
  127
  138
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -56
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  49
  57
  58
  66
  75
  84
  93
  103
  112
  122
  134
  145
  157
  169
  182
  196
  210
  225
  241
  257
  274
  293
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  71
  70
  71
  72
  74
  75
  76
  77
  79
  84
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
  144
  152
  161
  169
  178
  188
  197
  208
  219
  230
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -117
  -19
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -149
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  82
  47
  45
  43
  41
  39
  37
  34
  33
  35
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  79
  43
  39
  35
  32
  28
  25
  21
  19
  19
  13
  13
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.4
  99.0
  98.4
  97.4
  96.1
  94.5
  92.7
  90.6
  88.4
  85.9
  83.4
  80.7
  78.0
  75.2
  72.3
  69.4
  66.6
  63.7
  60.9
  58.0
  55.3

Kelly Services, Inc. is a workforce solutions provider, which is engaged in offering a range of specialty services. The Company provides workforce solutions in three regions: the Americas; Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and Asia Pacific (APAC). The Company's segments are Americas Commercial, Americas Professional and Technical (Americas PT), EMEA Commercial, EMEA Professional and Technical (EMEA PT), and Outsourcing and Consulting Group (OCG). The Americas Commercial segment includes Office, Contact Center, Education, Marketing and Electronic Assembly. The Americas PT segment includes a range of specialty staffing services. The EMEA Commercial segment provides a range of staffing services, including Office, Contact Center and its temporary-to-hire service. The EMEA PT segment provides Engineering, Finance and Accounting services. The OCG segment delivers talent management solutions across multiple regions, skill sets and a spectrum of talent categories.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kelly Services Cl A (KELYA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.4
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -23.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 51
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Equity 12.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 2.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
EBITDA Margin 3.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Operating Margin 1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Payout Ratio 9.1%

KELYA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KELYA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kelly Services Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Kelly Services Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KELYA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KELYA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kelly Services Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kelly Services Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KELYA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KELYA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10.7% for Kelly Services Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kelly Services Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KELYA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KELYA are equal to 1.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kelly Services Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KELYA is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1012 million for Kelly Services Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.638 million for Kelly Services Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kelly Services Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is Kelly Services a Ben Graham Stock?   [Aug-22-17 03:51PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 3 Value Stocks for Conservative Investors   [Aug-14-17 06:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Kelly Services posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 10:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kelly Services, Inc. : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 12:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kelly Services posts 1Q profit   [10:42AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kelly Services posts 1Q profit   [07:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Labor Policy Forum Addresses Gig Workers' Needs   [Feb-28-17 07:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Kelly Services(R) Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-16-17 02:25PM  Marketwired]
▶ Kelly Services, Inc. (KELYA): Is It A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 05:11AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Top Ranked Enterprising Investor Stock   [Nov-16-16 10:37AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Kelly Services(R) Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-08-16 01:24PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of KELYA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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