Intrinsic value of Keysight Technologies - KEYS

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$38.36

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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$38.36

 
Intrinsic value

$31.19

 
Up/down potential

-19%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KEYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.17
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,918
  2,976
  3,045
  3,123
  3,211
  3,308
  3,415
  3,531
  3,657
  3,793
  3,938
  4,094
  4,260
  4,437
  4,625
  4,825
  5,036
  5,260
  5,497
  5,747
  6,011
  6,290
  6,583
  6,893
  7,219
  7,563
  7,925
  8,306
  8,707
  9,128
  9,572
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,525
  2,582
  2,646
  2,719
  2,799
  2,887
  2,983
  3,086
  3,198
  3,318
  3,373
  3,510
  3,655
  3,810
  3,975
  4,149
  4,333
  4,528
  4,734
  4,952
  5,181
  5,423
  5,678
  5,947
  6,230
  6,528
  6,842
  7,172
  7,520
  7,885
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,512
  2,525
  2,582
  2,646
  2,719
  2,799
  2,887
  2,983
  3,086
  3,198
  3,318
  3,373
  3,510
  3,655
  3,810
  3,975
  4,149
  4,333
  4,528
  4,734
  4,952
  5,181
  5,423
  5,678
  5,947
  6,230
  6,528
  6,842
  7,172
  7,520
  7,885
Operating income, $m
  406
  451
  463
  477
  492
  509
  528
  549
  571
  595
  620
  721
  751
  782
  815
  850
  888
  927
  969
  1,013
  1,059
  1,108
  1,160
  1,215
  1,272
  1,333
  1,397
  1,464
  1,534
  1,609
  1,687
EBITDA, $m
  540
  580
  593
  608
  625
  644
  665
  688
  712
  739
  767
  797
  830
  864
  901
  940
  981
  1,025
  1,071
  1,119
  1,171
  1,225
  1,282
  1,343
  1,406
  1,473
  1,544
  1,618
  1,696
  1,778
  1,864
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  125
  132
  141
  149
  159
  168
  179
  189
  201
  213
  225
  238
Earnings before tax, $m
  366
  407
  417
  429
  442
  456
  472
  489
  508
  528
  549
  646
  670
  696
  724
  753
  784
  817
  851
  888
  927
  968
  1,011
  1,056
  1,104
  1,154
  1,207
  1,263
  1,322
  1,384
  1,448
Tax expense, $m
  31
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  174
  181
  188
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  391
Net income, $m
  335
  297
  305
  313
  323
  333
  345
  357
  371
  385
  401
  471
  489
  508
  528
  550
  572
  596
  622
  648
  677
  706
  738
  771
  806
  843
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,057

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  783
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,796
  3,075
  3,145
  3,226
  3,317
  3,418
  3,528
  3,648
  3,778
  3,918
  4,069
  4,230
  4,401
  4,584
  4,778
  4,984
  5,203
  5,434
  5,678
  5,937
  6,210
  6,497
  6,801
  7,121
  7,458
  7,813
  8,187
  8,580
  8,994
  9,430
  9,888
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,013
  3,075
  3,145
  3,226
  3,317
  3,418
  3,528
  3,648
  3,778
  3,918
  4,069
  4,230
  4,401
  4,584
  4,778
  4,984
  5,203
  5,434
  5,678
  5,937
  6,210
  6,497
  6,801
  7,121
  7,458
  7,813
  8,187
  8,580
  8,994
  9,430
  9,888
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
  0.968
Average production assets, $m
  486
  497
  508
  522
  536
  552
  570
  590
  611
  633
  658
  684
  711
  741
  772
  806
  841
  878
  918
  960
  1,004
  1,050
  1,099
  1,151
  1,206
  1,263
  1,323
  1,387
  1,454
  1,524
  1,599
Working capital, $m
  1,210
  435
  445
  456
  469
  483
  499
  516
  534
  554
  575
  598
  622
  648
  675
  704
  735
  768
  803
  839
  878
  918
  961
  1,006
  1,054
  1,104
  1,157
  1,213
  1,271
  1,333
  1,397
Total debt, $m
  1,093
  1,141
  1,194
  1,256
  1,324
  1,401
  1,484
  1,575
  1,674
  1,780
  1,894
  2,016
  2,146
  2,285
  2,432
  2,588
  2,754
  2,929
  3,114
  3,310
  3,517
  3,735
  3,965
  4,208
  4,463
  4,732
  5,016
  5,314
  5,628
  5,958
  6,305
Total liabilities, $m
  2,283
  2,331
  2,384
  2,446
  2,514
  2,591
  2,674
  2,765
  2,864
  2,970
  3,084
  3,206
  3,336
  3,475
  3,622
  3,778
  3,944
  4,119
  4,304
  4,500
  4,707
  4,925
  5,155
  5,398
  5,653
  5,922
  6,206
  6,504
  6,818
  7,148
  7,495
Total equity, $m
  1,513
  744
  761
  781
  803
  827
  854
  883
  914
  948
  985
  1,024
  1,065
  1,109
  1,156
  1,206
  1,259
  1,315
  1,374
  1,437
  1,503
  1,572
  1,646
  1,723
  1,805
  1,891
  1,981
  2,076
  2,177
  2,282
  2,393
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,796
  3,075
  3,145
  3,227
  3,317
  3,418
  3,528
  3,648
  3,778
  3,918
  4,069
  4,230
  4,401
  4,584
  4,778
  4,984
  5,203
  5,434
  5,678
  5,937
  6,210
  6,497
  6,801
  7,121
  7,458
  7,813
  8,187
  8,580
  8,995
  9,430
  9,888
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.722
  1.530
  1.570
  1.610
  1.650
  1.690
  1.740
  1.780
  1.830
  1.880
  1.920
  1.970
  2.010
  2.060
  2.100
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.270
  2.300
  2.340
  2.380
  2.410
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.530
  2.560
  2.590
  2.610
  2.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242
  0.242

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  335
  297
  305
  313
  323
  333
  345
  357
  371
  385
  401
  471
  489
  508
  528
  550
  572
  596
  622
  648
  677
  706
  738
  771
  806
  843
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,057
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  134
  129
  130
  132
  133
  135
  137
  139
  141
  144
  147
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  169
  178
Funds from operations, $m
  308
  426
  435
  445
  456
  468
  482
  496
  512
  529
  548
  547
  568
  590
  614
  639
  666
  694
  724
  755
  788
  823
  860
  899
  940
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
Change in working capital, $m
  -108
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  416
  140
  425
  433
  443
  454
  466
  479
  494
  510
  526
  525
  544
  565
  587
  610
  635
  661
  689
  718
  750
  782
  817
  854
  892
  933
  976
  1,021
  1,068
  1,118
  1,170
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
New CAPEX, $m
  -91
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -90
  -65
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
Free cash flow, $m
  326
  74
  358
  364
  370
  378
  387
  397
  407
  419
  432
  426
  440
  456
  473
  491
  510
  530
  552
  575
  599
  624
  651
  680
  710
  741
  775
  810
  847
  886
  927
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  48
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  48
  54
  61
  69
  76
  84
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  147
  156
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  347
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  300
  122
  412
  425
  439
  454
  470
  488
  506
  525
  546
  547
  570
  595
  620
  647
  676
  706
  737
  771
  806
  843
  881
  922
  965
  1,011
  1,058
  1,108
  1,161
  1,216
  1,274
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -211
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  783
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  891
  395
  405
  417
  430
  444
  459
  474
  491
  509
  509
  529
  550
  573
  597
  623
  650
  678
  708
  740
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,111
  1,163
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  854
  361
  353
  344
  333
  322
  310
  297
  282
  267
  241
  226
  209
  192
  175
  158
  141
  125
  109
  94
  80
  67
  55
  45
  36
  28
  22
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Keysight Technologies, Inc. provides electronic design and test solutions to communications and electronics industries in the United States and internationally. Its Communications Solutions Group segment provides radio frequency and microwave test instruments and related software, and electronic design automation (EDA) software tools; oscilloscopes, logic and serial protocol analyzers, logic-signal sources, arbitrary waveform generators, and bit error rate testers; optical modulation analyzers, component analyzers, power meters, and laser source products, as well as optical amplifier, filter, and other passive component solutions; and related software solutions. The company’s Electronic Industrial Solutions Group segment offers design tools; design verification solutions; and general purpose test and measurement products, such as digital multi-meters, function generators, waveform synthesizers, counters, data acquisition products, audio analyzers, LCR Meters, thermal imaging solutions, low-cost USB modular units, precision source measurement units, ultra-high precision device current analyzers, test executive software platforms, and a range of power supplies. This segment also offers comprehensive manufacturing systems, such as printed-circuit-board-assembly testers and IC parametric testers; and material analysis products that include atomic-force and scanning-electron microscopy products. Its Services Solutions Group segment provides repair, calibration, and consulting services; and remarkets used Keysight equipment, as well as asset tracking, servicing, and utilization requirements throughout the product life cycle. The company also offers start-up assistance, instrument productivity, and application services, as well as customization and optimization services. It sells its products through direct sales force, resellers, manufacturer’s representatives, and distributors. The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Santa Rosa, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Keysight Technologies (KEYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.4
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 20
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -1.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 72.2%
Total Debt to Equity 72.2%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Return On Total Capital 13.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Return On Equity 23.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 55.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.6%
EBITDA Margin 18.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Operating Margin 13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Effective Tax Rate 8.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

KEYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KEYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2918 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Keysight Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Keysight Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KEYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KEYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Keysight Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Keysight Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KEYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KEYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Keysight Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Keysight Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KEYS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KEYS are equal to 16.7%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Keysight Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KEYS is equal to 14.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1513 million for Keysight Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 185.408 million for Keysight Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Keysight Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ixia Announces Collaboration with the CORD Project   [Apr-19-17 07:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Keysight tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-16-17 04:32PM  AP]
▶ John Rogers Comments on Keysight Technologies   [Jan-20-17 04:56PM  Gurufocus]
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Stock chart of KEYS Financial statements of KEYS Annual reports of KEYS
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