Intrinsic value of Keysight Technologies - KEYS

Previous Close

$60.49

  Intrinsic Value

$32.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-47%

Previous close

$60.49

 
Intrinsic value

$32.24

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KEYS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.29
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  3,189
  3,486
  3,795
  4,117
  4,452
  4,800
  5,162
  5,538
  5,928
  6,335
  6,757
  7,196
  7,653
  8,128
  8,624
  9,140
  9,678
  10,239
  10,824
  11,435
  12,073
  12,740
  13,437
  14,166
  14,928
  15,725
  16,560
  17,434
  18,350
  19,308
  20,313
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,976
  3,215
  3,465
  3,724
  3,994
  4,275
  4,566
  4,869
  5,184
  5,511
  5,578
  5,932
  6,301
  6,685
  7,085
  7,502
  7,937
  8,390
  8,864
  9,359
  9,876
  10,416
  10,981
  11,572
  12,190
  12,837
  13,515
  14,224
  14,967
  15,746
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,950
  2,976
  3,215
  3,465
  3,724
  3,994
  4,275
  4,566
  4,869
  5,184
  5,511
  5,578
  5,932
  6,301
  6,685
  7,085
  7,502
  7,937
  8,390
  8,864
  9,359
  9,876
  10,416
  10,981
  11,572
  12,190
  12,837
  13,515
  14,224
  14,967
  15,746
Operating income, $m
  239
  510
  579
  652
  727
  805
  887
  971
  1,059
  1,150
  1,245
  1,618
  1,721
  1,827
  1,939
  2,055
  2,176
  2,302
  2,433
  2,571
  2,714
  2,864
  3,021
  3,185
  3,356
  3,535
  3,723
  3,920
  4,125
  4,341
  4,567
EBITDA, $m
  464
  1,042
  1,134
  1,231
  1,331
  1,435
  1,543
  1,655
  1,772
  1,894
  2,020
  2,151
  2,288
  2,430
  2,578
  2,732
  2,893
  3,061
  3,236
  3,418
  3,609
  3,808
  4,017
  4,234
  4,462
  4,701
  4,950
  5,212
  5,485
  5,772
  6,072
Interest expense (income), $m
  64
  111
  129
  148
  167
  188
  209
  231
  255
  279
  303
  329
  356
  384
  413
  444
  475
  508
  543
  579
  616
  655
  696
  739
  784
  830
  879
  931
  984
  1,040
  1,099
Earnings before tax, $m
  179
  399
  451
  504
  560
  617
  677
  740
  805
  872
  942
  1,289
  1,364
  1,443
  1,525
  1,611
  1,700
  1,793
  1,891
  1,992
  2,098
  2,209
  2,325
  2,446
  2,572
  2,705
  2,844
  2,989
  3,141
  3,301
  3,468
Tax expense, $m
  77
  108
  122
  136
  151
  167
  183
  200
  217
  235
  254
  348
  368
  390
  412
  435
  459
  484
  510
  538
  566
  596
  628
  660
  695
  730
  768
  807
  848
  891
  936
Net income, $m
  102
  292
  329
  368
  409
  451
  495
  540
  587
  637
  688
  941
  996
  1,054
  1,114
  1,176
  1,241
  1,309
  1,380
  1,454
  1,532
  1,612
  1,697
  1,785
  1,878
  1,975
  2,076
  2,182
  2,293
  2,410
  2,531

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  818
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,933
  6,479
  7,053
  7,652
  8,274
  8,921
  9,594
  10,293
  11,019
  11,774
  12,559
  13,375
  14,225
  15,108
  16,029
  16,988
  17,988
  19,031
  20,119
  21,255
  22,441
  23,680
  24,975
  26,330
  27,747
  29,229
  30,781
  32,406
  34,107
  35,889
  37,756
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,115
  6,479
  7,053
  7,652
  8,274
  8,921
  9,594
  10,293
  11,019
  11,774
  12,559
  13,375
  14,225
  15,108
  16,029
  16,988
  17,988
  19,031
  20,119
  21,255
  22,441
  23,680
  24,975
  26,330
  27,747
  29,229
  30,781
  32,406
  34,107
  35,889
  37,756
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.623
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
  0.538
Average production assets, $m
  797
  2,583
  2,812
  3,050
  3,299
  3,557
  3,825
  4,103
  4,393
  4,694
  5,007
  5,332
  5,671
  6,023
  6,390
  6,772
  7,171
  7,587
  8,020
  8,473
  8,946
  9,440
  9,957
  10,497
  11,062
  11,653
  12,271
  12,919
  13,597
  14,307
  15,052
Working capital, $m
  1,358
  411
  448
  486
  525
  566
  609
  653
  700
  747
  797
  849
  903
  959
  1,018
  1,078
  1,142
  1,208
  1,277
  1,349
  1,425
  1,503
  1,586
  1,672
  1,761
  1,856
  1,954
  2,057
  2,165
  2,278
  2,397
Total debt, $m
  2,053
  2,384
  2,735
  3,100
  3,481
  3,876
  4,287
  4,714
  5,158
  5,619
  6,099
  6,597
  7,116
  7,656
  8,219
  8,805
  9,416
  10,053
  10,718
  11,412
  12,136
  12,894
  13,685
  14,513
  15,378
  16,284
  17,232
  18,225
  19,264
  20,353
  21,494
Total liabilities, $m
  3,623
  3,959
  4,310
  4,675
  5,056
  5,451
  5,862
  6,289
  6,733
  7,194
  7,674
  8,172
  8,691
  9,231
  9,794
  10,380
  10,991
  11,628
  12,293
  12,987
  13,711
  14,469
  15,260
  16,088
  16,953
  17,859
  18,807
  19,800
  20,839
  21,928
  23,069
Total equity, $m
  2,310
  2,520
  2,744
  2,977
  3,219
  3,470
  3,732
  4,004
  4,286
  4,580
  4,885
  5,203
  5,533
  5,877
  6,235
  6,608
  6,997
  7,403
  7,826
  8,268
  8,729
  9,212
  9,715
  10,242
  10,794
  11,370
  11,974
  12,606
  13,268
  13,961
  14,687
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,933
  6,479
  7,054
  7,652
  8,275
  8,921
  9,594
  10,293
  11,019
  11,774
  12,559
  13,375
  14,224
  15,108
  16,029
  16,988
  17,988
  19,031
  20,119
  21,255
  22,440
  23,681
  24,975
  26,330
  27,747
  29,229
  30,781
  32,406
  34,107
  35,889
  37,756
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.889
  0.950
  1.000
  1.040
  1.080
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.320
  1.330
  1.350
  1.360
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.292
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389
  0.389

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  292
  329
  368
  409
  451
  495
  540
  587
  637
  688
  941
  996
  1,054
  1,114
  1,176
  1,241
  1,309
  1,380
  1,454
  1,532
  1,612
  1,697
  1,785
  1,878
  1,975
  2,076
  2,182
  2,293
  2,410
  2,531
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  225
  532
  555
  579
  604
  629
  656
  684
  713
  743
  774
  533
  567
  602
  639
  677
  717
  759
  802
  847
  895
  944
  996
  1,050
  1,106
  1,165
  1,227
  1,292
  1,360
  1,431
  1,505
Funds from operations, $m
  328
  824
  884
  947
  1,012
  1,080
  1,151
  1,224
  1,300
  1,380
  1,462
  1,474
  1,563
  1,656
  1,753
  1,853
  1,958
  2,068
  2,182
  2,302
  2,426
  2,557
  2,693
  2,835
  2,984
  3,140
  3,303
  3,474
  3,653
  3,840
  4,037
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
Cash from operations, $m
  313
  789
  847
  909
  973
  1,039
  1,108
  1,180
  1,254
  1,332
  1,412
  1,422
  1,509
  1,600
  1,694
  1,792
  1,895
  2,002
  2,113
  2,229
  2,351
  2,478
  2,610
  2,749
  2,894
  3,046
  3,205
  3,371
  3,545
  3,727
  3,918
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -236
  -258
  -281
  -305
  -330
  -356
  -382
  -410
  -439
  -469
  -501
  -533
  -567
  -602
  -639
  -677
  -717
  -759
  -802
  -847
  -895
  -944
  -996
  -1,050
  -1,106
  -1,165
  -1,227
  -1,292
  -1,360
  -1,431
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -221
  -229
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -301
  -313
  -325
  -339
  -352
  -367
  -382
  -399
  -416
  -434
  -453
  -473
  -494
  -516
  -540
  -565
  -591
  -619
  -648
  -678
  -710
  -744
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,722
  -457
  -487
  -520
  -553
  -588
  -624
  -661
  -700
  -740
  -782
  -826
  -872
  -919
  -969
  -1,021
  -1,076
  -1,133
  -1,193
  -1,255
  -1,320
  -1,389
  -1,460
  -1,536
  -1,615
  -1,697
  -1,784
  -1,875
  -1,970
  -2,070
  -2,175
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,409
  331
  360
  389
  419
  451
  484
  519
  554
  591
  630
  596
  637
  680
  725
  771
  819
  869
  921
  975
  1,031
  1,089
  1,150
  1,213
  1,280
  1,349
  1,421
  1,496
  1,575
  1,657
  1,743
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  958
  336
  351
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  444
  461
  480
  499
  519
  540
  562
  586
  611
  637
  665
  694
  725
  757
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,089
  1,141
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  495
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,440
  336
  351
  366
  380
  395
  411
  427
  444
  461
  480
  499
  519
  540
  562
  586
  611
  637
  665
  694
  725
  757
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,089
  1,141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  667
  711
  755
  800
  847
  895
  946
  998
  1,053
  1,109
  1,095
  1,156
  1,220
  1,287
  1,357
  1,430
  1,506
  1,586
  1,669
  1,755
  1,846
  1,942
  2,041
  2,145
  2,254
  2,369
  2,489
  2,614
  2,746
  2,884
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -797
  -210
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -305
  -318
  -330
  -344
  -358
  -373
  -389
  -406
  -423
  -442
  -461
  -482
  -504
  -527
  -551
  -577
  -604
  -632
  -662
  -693
  -726
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  54
  59
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  147
  155
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  228
  241
  254
  267
  282
  296
  312
  328
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  456
  488
  522
  558
  595
  634
  674
  716
  759
  804
  777
  826
  876
  929
  984
  1,041
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,294
  1,364
  1,438
  1,514
  1,594
  1,678
  1,765
  1,857
  1,952
  2,053
  2,158
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  430
  430
  428
  423
  414
  401
  385
  366
  345
  321
  270
  246
  222
  198
  173
  150
  127
  106
  87
  70
  56
  43
  33
  24
  18
  12
  9
  6
  4
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Keysight Technologies, Inc. is a measurement company engaged in providing electronic design and test solutions to communications and electronics industries. The Company provides electronic design and test instruments and systems and related software, software design tools and related services that are used in the design, development, manufacture, installation, deployment and operation of electronics equipment. The Company operates through three segments: Communications Solutions Group (CSG), Electronic Industrial Solutions Group (EISG) and Services Solutions Group (SSG). The CSG and EISG segments provide electronic design and test software, instruments, and systems used in the simulation, design, validation, manufacturing, installation and optimization of electronic equipment. The SSG segment provides integrated service solutions, including repair and calibration services, professional services and remanufactured equipment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Keysight Technologies (KEYS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 110.1
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 4.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 46.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -20.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 74
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 88.4%
Total Debt to Equity 88.9%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
EBITDA Margin 14.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.3%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Effective Tax Rate 43%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

KEYS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KEYS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3189 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Keysight Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Keysight Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KEYS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for KEYS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Keysight Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Keysight Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KEYS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KEYS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Keysight Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Keysight Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KEYS stock is equal to 1.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KEYS are equal to 74.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Keysight Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KEYS is equal to 11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2310 million for Keysight Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 180 million for Keysight Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Keysight Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $10.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Keysight Technologies Acquires Thales Calibration Services   [Aug-13-18 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Trade War Threatens Small-Cap Stock Juggernaut   [Jul-27-18 08:00AM  Investopedia]
▶ Why Keysight Technologies Shares Jumped Today   [May-31-18 01:03PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Keysight: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's a RED HOT Tamale in a Flat Stock Market   [Apr-25-18 02:44PM  Zacks]
▶ Keysight tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Mar-01-18 04:41PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of KEYS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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