Intrinsic value of Kingsway Financial Services - KFS

Previous Close

$6.00

  Intrinsic Value

$0.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

  Value-price divergence*

-70%

Previous close

$6.00

 
Intrinsic value

$0.13

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-70%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as KFS.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KFS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.45
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  176
  181
  185
  190
  196
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  373
  390
  409
  428
  448
  470
  492
  516
  541
  567
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  172
  179
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  334
  350
  366
  384
  403
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  90
  92
  94
  96
Total operating expenses, $m
  175
  179
  183
  189
  193
  198
  204
  211
  217
  224
  232
  232
  241
  250
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  316
  328
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  440
  458
  478
  499
Operating income, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  58
  63
  68
EBITDA, $m
  1
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  75
  80
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
Earnings before tax, $m
  -10
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
Tax expense, $m
  -9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
Net income, $m
  1
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  501
  511
  523
  537
  552
  569
  587
  607
  628
  652
  677
  704
  732
  763
  795
  829
  865
  904
  945
  988
  1,033
  1,081
  1,131
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,362
  1,427
  1,496
  1,569
  1,645
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  501
  511
  523
  537
  552
  569
  587
  607
  628
  652
  677
  704
  732
  763
  795
  829
  865
  904
  945
  988
  1,033
  1,081
  1,131
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,362
  1,427
  1,496
  1,569
  1,645
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.344
  0.346
  0.345
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.346
  0.345
  0.346
  0.345
  0.346
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.346
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
  0.345
Average production assets, $m
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  152
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  233
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  353
  371
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  234
  243
  253
  265
  278
  293
  309
  327
  346
  366
  388
  411
  436
  463
  491
  521
  553
  587
  622
  660
  700
  742
  786
  833
  882
  934
  988
  1,045
  1,106
  1,169
  1,236
Total liabilities, $m
  439
  448
  458
  470
  483
  498
  514
  532
  551
  571
  593
  616
  641
  668
  696
  726
  758
  792
  827
  865
  905
  947
  991
  1,038
  1,087
  1,139
  1,193
  1,250
  1,311
  1,374
  1,441
Total equity, $m
  62
  63
  65
  67
  68
  70
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  204
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  501
  511
  523
  537
  551
  568
  587
  607
  629
  652
  677
  703
  732
  763
  795
  829
  865
  904
  944
  987
  1,033
  1,081
  1,131
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,362
  1,427
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.774
  3.830
  3.900
  3.980
  4.070
  4.160
  4.250
  4.340
  4.430
  4.530
  4.620
  4.710
  4.810
  4.900
  4.980
  5.070
  5.150
  5.240
  5.310
  5.390
  5.460
  5.530
  5.600
  5.670
  5.730
  5.790
  5.850
  5.910
  5.960
  6.010
  6.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124
  0.124

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Funds from operations, $m
  -17
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  19
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  -16
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  19
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -27
  -29
Free cash flow, $m
  -25
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -14
  -14
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  10
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  20
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
  11
  10
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  9
  25
  27
  30
  31
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -20
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Discount rate, %
 
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.71
  24.89
  26.14
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.77
  33.36
  35.02
  36.77
  38.61
  40.54
  42.57
  44.70
  46.93
  49.28
  51.75
  54.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.5
  80.1
  71.5
  63.9
  57.0
  51.0
  45.6
  40.9
  36.8
  33.1
  31.0
  29.1
  27.3
  25.7
  24.3
  23.1
  21.9
  20.9
  20.0
  19.2
  18.6
  18.0
  17.4
  17.0
  16.6
  16.3
  16.1
  15.9
  15.7
  15.6

Kingsway Financial Services Inc. is a holding company. The Company operates as a merchant bank primarily engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the property and casualty insurance business. The Company operates through Insurance Underwriting segment. Its Insurance Underwriting segment provides non-standard automobile insurance to individuals who do not meet the criteria for coverage by standard automobile insurers. The Insurance Underwriting segment markets automobile insurance products that provide coverage in three areas: liability, accident benefits and physical damage. The Insurance Underwriting's products and services are marketed through over 3,700 independent agencies. The Company's property and casualty insurance business operations are conducted through its subsidiaries, such as Mendota Insurance Company (Mendota), Mendakota Insurance Company (Mendakota), Mendakota Casualty Company (MCC), Kingsway Amigo Insurance Company (Amigo) and Kingsway Reinsurance Corporation.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kingsway Financial Services (KFS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 128.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -8
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 377.4%
Total Debt to Equity 377.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Return On Equity 1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Operating Margin -1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Effective Tax Rate 90%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

KFS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KFS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $173 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kingsway Financial Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kingsway Financial Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KFS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.2%, whose default value for KFS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kingsway Financial Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kingsway Financial Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KFS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $46 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KFS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for Kingsway Financial Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kingsway Financial Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KFS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KFS are equal to 65.3%.

Life of production assets of 51.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kingsway Financial Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KFS is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $62 million for Kingsway Financial Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.36 million for Kingsway Financial Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kingsway Financial Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kingsway Announces Warranty Company Acquisition   [Oct-12-17 04:24PM  CNW Group]
▶ Kingsway Financial reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kingsway Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-07-17 09:54PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kingsway Announces Results of Shareholder Meeting   [May-25-17 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kingsway Financial reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 08:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ Independent Director Invests in Kingsway Financial Services   [Mar-17-17 05:20PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Kingsway Financial reports 4Q loss   [08:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ Weekly CFO Buys Highlight   [Jan-20-17 12:43PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Kingsway to Host 2016 Investor Day on November 30, 2016   [Nov-23-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Kingsway Announces Formation of 1347 Warranty Holdings   [Apr-21-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Preparing for Kobex's Future...   [10:34AM  Marketwired]
▶ Kingsway Financial Now Owns 14.95% of Kobex Capital   [Nov-03  06:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Kingsway Announces Third Quarter 2015 Results   [Oct-23  09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Kingsway Financial Services, Inc.   [Aug-09  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Kingsway Announces Second Quarter 2015 Results   [Jul-29  04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 10-Q for Kingsway Financial Services, Inc.   [May-10  08:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Kingsway Financial Services, Inc.   [May-05  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of KFS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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