Intrinsic value of Kinross Gold - KGC

Previous Close

$3.69

  Intrinsic Value

$0.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$3.69

 
Intrinsic value

$0.89

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KGC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.76
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,472
  3,369
  3,447
  3,535
  3,635
  3,745
  3,866
  3,997
  4,140
  4,293
  4,458
  4,634
  4,822
  5,023
  5,236
  5,461
  5,701
  5,954
  6,222
  6,505
  6,804
  7,119
  7,452
  7,803
  8,172
  8,561
  8,971
  9,402
  9,855
  10,333
  10,835
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,099
  3,170
  3,251
  3,342
  3,443
  3,554
  3,674
  3,805
  3,945
  4,096
  4,241
  4,413
  4,596
  4,791
  4,998
  5,217
  5,448
  5,694
  5,953
  6,226
  6,515
  6,819
  7,140
  7,478
  7,834
  8,209
  8,603
  9,018
  9,455
  9,915
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,426
  3,099
  3,170
  3,251
  3,342
  3,443
  3,554
  3,674
  3,805
  3,945
  4,096
  4,241
  4,413
  4,596
  4,791
  4,998
  5,217
  5,448
  5,694
  5,953
  6,226
  6,515
  6,819
  7,140
  7,478
  7,834
  8,209
  8,603
  9,018
  9,455
  9,915
Operating income, $m
  46
  270
  276
  284
  292
  302
  312
  323
  335
  348
  362
  394
  410
  427
  445
  464
  484
  506
  528
  553
  578
  605
  633
  663
  694
  727
  762
  799
  837
  878
  920
EBITDA, $m
  901
  803
  821
  842
  866
  892
  921
  952
  986
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,149
  1,197
  1,247
  1,301
  1,358
  1,418
  1,482
  1,550
  1,621
  1,696
  1,775
  1,859
  1,947
  2,040
  2,137
  2,240
  2,348
  2,462
  2,581
Interest expense (income), $m
  74
  94
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  134
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  194
  206
  220
  234
  248
  264
  281
  298
  316
  336
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  476
  504
Earnings before tax, $m
  -60
  176
  179
  182
  185
  189
  193
  197
  201
  206
  211
  233
  238
  244
  251
  257
  265
  272
  280
  289
  297
  307
  317
  327
  338
  349
  361
  374
  387
  401
  416
Tax expense, $m
  49
  48
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  108
  112
Net income, $m
  -104
  129
  131
  133
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  154
  170
  174
  178
  183
  188
  193
  199
  204
  211
  217
  224
  231
  239
  247
  255
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  827
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,979
  7,853
  8,034
  8,240
  8,472
  8,729
  9,011
  9,318
  9,650
  10,008
  10,392
  10,803
  11,241
  11,708
  12,204
  12,731
  13,288
  13,879
  14,504
  15,163
  15,860
  16,595
  17,371
  18,188
  19,049
  19,956
  20,910
  21,915
  22,973
  24,086
  25,256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,152
  7,853
  8,034
  8,240
  8,472
  8,729
  9,011
  9,318
  9,650
  10,008
  10,392
  10,803
  11,241
  11,708
  12,204
  12,731
  13,288
  13,879
  14,504
  15,163
  15,860
  16,595
  17,371
  18,188
  19,049
  19,956
  20,910
  21,915
  22,973
  24,086
  25,256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.485
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
Average production assets, $m
  4,756
  5,165
  5,284
  5,419
  5,572
  5,741
  5,926
  6,128
  6,346
  6,582
  6,834
  7,105
  7,393
  7,700
  8,026
  8,372
  8,739
  9,128
  9,538
  9,972
  10,431
  10,914
  11,424
  11,961
  12,528
  13,124
  13,752
  14,413
  15,108
  15,840
  16,610
Working capital, $m
  1,443
  623
  638
  654
  672
  693
  715
  740
  766
  794
  825
  857
  892
  929
  969
  1,010
  1,055
  1,102
  1,151
  1,203
  1,259
  1,317
  1,379
  1,443
  1,512
  1,584
  1,660
  1,739
  1,823
  1,912
  2,004
Total debt, $m
  1,733
  1,803
  1,887
  1,983
  2,090
  2,210
  2,340
  2,483
  2,637
  2,803
  2,981
  3,172
  3,375
  3,592
  3,822
  4,066
  4,325
  4,599
  4,889
  5,195
  5,519
  5,860
  6,219
  6,599
  6,998
  7,419
  7,862
  8,328
  8,819
  9,335
  9,878
Total liabilities, $m
  3,834
  3,644
  3,728
  3,824
  3,931
  4,050
  4,181
  4,323
  4,478
  4,644
  4,822
  5,012
  5,216
  5,433
  5,663
  5,907
  6,166
  6,440
  6,730
  7,036
  7,359
  7,700
  8,060
  8,439
  8,839
  9,259
  9,702
  10,169
  10,659
  11,176
  11,719
Total equity, $m
  4,146
  4,209
  4,306
  4,417
  4,541
  4,679
  4,830
  4,994
  5,172
  5,364
  5,570
  5,790
  6,025
  6,275
  6,541
  6,824
  7,123
  7,439
  7,774
  8,128
  8,501
  8,895
  9,311
  9,749
  10,210
  10,696
  11,208
  11,747
  12,314
  12,910
  13,537
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,980
  7,853
  8,034
  8,241
  8,472
  8,729
  9,011
  9,317
  9,650
  10,008
  10,392
  10,802
  11,241
  11,708
  12,204
  12,731
  13,289
  13,879
  14,504
  15,164
  15,860
  16,595
  17,371
  18,188
  19,049
  19,955
  20,910
  21,916
  22,973
  24,086
  25,256
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.418
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.464
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536
  0.536

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -104
  129
  131
  133
  135
  138
  141
  144
  147
  150
  154
  170
  174
  178
  183
  188
  193
  199
  204
  211
  217
  224
  231
  239
  247
  255
  264
  273
  283
  293
  304
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  855
  533
  545
  558
  573
  590
  609
  629
  651
  674
  700
  710
  739
  770
  803
  837
  874
  913
  954
  997
  1,043
  1,091
  1,142
  1,196
  1,253
  1,312
  1,375
  1,441
  1,511
  1,584
  1,661
Funds from operations, $m
  1,272
  661
  675
  691
  709
  728
  750
  773
  798
  825
  854
  880
  913
  948
  986
  1,025
  1,067
  1,111
  1,158
  1,208
  1,260
  1,315
  1,373
  1,435
  1,499
  1,567
  1,639
  1,714
  1,794
  1,877
  1,965
Change in working capital, $m
  173
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
Cash from operations, $m
  1,099
  649
  661
  675
  690
  708
  727
  748
  771
  796
  823
  848
  878
  911
  946
  983
  1,023
  1,065
  1,109
  1,155
  1,205
  1,257
  1,312
  1,370
  1,431
  1,495
  1,563
  1,635
  1,710
  1,789
  1,872
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -507
  -516
  -528
  -542
  -557
  -574
  -593
  -613
  -635
  -658
  -683
  -710
  -739
  -770
  -803
  -837
  -874
  -913
  -954
  -997
  -1,043
  -1,091
  -1,142
  -1,196
  -1,253
  -1,312
  -1,375
  -1,441
  -1,511
  -1,584
New CAPEX, $m
  -634
  -100
  -119
  -136
  -152
  -169
  -185
  -202
  -218
  -235
  -253
  -270
  -288
  -307
  -326
  -346
  -367
  -388
  -411
  -434
  -458
  -483
  -510
  -537
  -566
  -596
  -628
  -661
  -696
  -732
  -770
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,270
  -607
  -635
  -664
  -694
  -726
  -759
  -795
  -831
  -870
  -911
  -953
  -998
  -1,046
  -1,096
  -1,149
  -1,204
  -1,262
  -1,324
  -1,388
  -1,455
  -1,526
  -1,601
  -1,679
  -1,762
  -1,849
  -1,940
  -2,036
  -2,137
  -2,243
  -2,354
Free cash flow, $m
  -171
  43
  26
  11
  -4
  -18
  -32
  -46
  -60
  -74
  -87
  -106
  -120
  -135
  -150
  -165
  -181
  -198
  -215
  -232
  -251
  -270
  -289
  -310
  -331
  -354
  -377
  -402
  -427
  -454
  -482
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -250
  71
  84
  96
  108
  119
  131
  142
  154
  166
  178
  191
  203
  217
  230
  244
  259
  274
  290
  306
  323
  341
  360
  379
  400
  421
  443
  466
  491
  516
  543
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  279
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  10
  21
  31
  41
  52
  50
  61
  72
  83
  94
  106
  118
  130
  143
  156
  170
  185
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  284
  303
  323
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -48
  71
  84
  96
  108
  119
  141
  163
  185
  207
  230
  241
  264
  289
  313
  338
  365
  392
  420
  449
  479
  511
  545
  578
  615
  652
  691
  732
  775
  819
  866
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -217
  113
  110
  106
  104
  101
  109
  117
  126
  134
  143
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -257
  -78
  -97
  -111
  -124
  -138
  -151
  -164
  -178
  -192
  -206
  -220
  -235
  -250
  -266
  -282
  -299
  -317
  -335
  -354
  -373
  -394
  -416
  -438
  -462
  -486
  -512
  -539
  -567
  -596
  -627
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  453
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  488
  13
  -4
  -21
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -243
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  468
  12
  -4
  -17
  -28
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -33
  -33
  -40
  -39
  -37
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.4
  98.7
  98.0
  97.0
  96.2
  95.2
  94.0
  92.8
  91.5
  90.1
  88.7
  87.1
  85.6
  84.0
  82.3
  80.6
  79.0
  77.3
  75.6
  73.9
  72.1
  70.5
  68.8
  67.1

Kinross Gold Corporation is a gold mining company. The Company is engaged in gold mining and related activities, including exploration and acquisition of gold-bearing properties, the extraction and processing of gold-containing ore, and reclamation of gold mining properties. The Company's segments include Fort Knox, Round Mountain, Bald Mountain, Kettle River-Buckhorn, Kupol, Paracatu, Maricunga, Tasiast and Chirano. Fort Knox is an open-pit gold mine located in Fairbanks, Alaska. Round Mountain open-pit mine is located in Nye County, Nevada. Bald Mountain open-pit mine is located in Nevada. Kettle River-Buckhorn mine is located in northern Washington State. The Kupol segment includes the Kupol and Dvoinoye mines. Paracatu is a gold mine located in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Maricunga open pit mine is located in Copiapo, Chile. Tasiast mine is located in north-western Mauritania. Chirano is located in southwestern Ghana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kinross Gold (KGC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -44.2
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 3.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 41.8%
Total Debt to Equity 41.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.5%
Return On Total Capital -1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Return On Equity -2.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.5%
EBITDA Margin 25%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Operating Margin 1.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.5%
Net Profit Margin -3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23%
Effective Tax Rate -81.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

KGC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KGC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3303 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kinross Gold. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kinross Gold. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KGC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KGC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kinross Gold, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kinross Gold.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KGC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KGC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Kinross Gold.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kinross Gold. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KGC stock is equal to 0.4%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KGC are equal to 153.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kinross Gold operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KGC is equal to 18.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4584 million for Kinross Gold - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1247 million for Kinross Gold is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kinross Gold at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Kinross to announce Q2 financial results on August 1, 2018   [Jun-28-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kinross to proceed with initial Fort Knox Gilmore expansion   [Jun-12-18 09:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
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▶ Kinross adopts new shareholder rights plan   [Mar-15-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
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Financial statements of KGC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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