Intrinsic value of Knowles - KN

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$17.58

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.06
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
Revenue, $m
  859
  924
  992
  1,063
  1,136
  1,212
  1,291
  1,374
  1,459
  1,549
  1,642
  1,739
  1,840
  1,945
  2,056
  2,171
  2,291
  2,416
  2,548
  2,685
  2,829
  2,979
  3,136
  3,301
  3,474
  3,655
  3,844
  4,043
  4,251
  4,470
  4,699
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  879
  937
  997
  1,059
  1,124
  1,192
  1,262
  1,336
  1,412
  1,491
  1,485
  1,571
  1,661
  1,755
  1,853
  1,956
  2,063
  2,175
  2,292
  2,415
  2,543
  2,678
  2,819
  2,966
  3,120
  3,282
  3,452
  3,630
  3,816
  4,012
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  812
  879
  937
  997
  1,059
  1,124
  1,192
  1,262
  1,336
  1,412
  1,491
  1,485
  1,571
  1,661
  1,755
  1,853
  1,956
  2,063
  2,175
  2,292
  2,415
  2,543
  2,678
  2,819
  2,966
  3,120
  3,282
  3,452
  3,630
  3,816
  4,012
Operating income, $m
  47
  46
  56
  66
  77
  88
  99
  111
  124
  137
  151
  254
  269
  284
  301
  317
  335
  353
  372
  393
  414
  435
  459
  483
  508
  534
  562
  591
  621
  653
  687
EBITDA, $m
  121
  157
  168
  180
  192
  205
  219
  233
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  348
  368
  388
  409
  432
  455
  479
  505
  531
  559
  588
  619
  651
  685
  720
  757
  796
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  35
  44
  53
  62
  72
  82
  92
  103
  114
  126
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  520
  547
  574
  603
Tax expense, $m
  12
  9
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
  148
  155
  163
Net income, $m
  -42
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  166
  176
  185
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  380
  399
  419
  441

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,515
  1,559
  1,673
  1,792
  1,916
  2,044
  2,178
  2,317
  2,461
  2,612
  2,769
  2,932
  3,103
  3,281
  3,466
  3,660
  3,863
  4,075
  4,296
  4,528
  4,770
  5,023
  5,289
  5,567
  5,858
  6,163
  6,483
  6,818
  7,169
  7,537
  7,923
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,449
  1,559
  1,673
  1,792
  1,916
  2,044
  2,178
  2,317
  2,461
  2,612
  2,769
  2,932
  3,103
  3,281
  3,466
  3,660
  3,863
  4,075
  4,296
  4,528
  4,770
  5,023
  5,289
  5,567
  5,858
  6,163
  6,483
  6,818
  7,169
  7,537
  7,923
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
Average production assets, $m
  335
  360
  387
  414
  443
  473
  504
  536
  569
  604
  640
  678
  718
  759
  802
  847
  893
  942
  994
  1,047
  1,103
  1,162
  1,223
  1,287
  1,355
  1,425
  1,499
  1,577
  1,658
  1,743
  1,832
Working capital, $m
  181
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  317
  334
  353
  372
  392
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
  534
  561
  590
  621
  653
  686
Total debt, $m
  311
  338
  377
  418
  460
  504
  550
  597
  647
  698
  752
  808
  866
  927
  990
  1,057
  1,126
  1,199
  1,274
  1,353
  1,436
  1,523
  1,614
  1,709
  1,808
  1,913
  2,022
  2,137
  2,257
  2,383
  2,515
Total liabilities, $m
  507
  533
  572
  613
  655
  699
  745
  792
  842
  893
  947
  1,003
  1,061
  1,122
  1,185
  1,252
  1,321
  1,394
  1,469
  1,548
  1,631
  1,718
  1,809
  1,904
  2,003
  2,108
  2,217
  2,332
  2,452
  2,578
  2,710
Total equity, $m
  1,009
  1,026
  1,101
  1,179
  1,260
  1,345
  1,433
  1,524
  1,619
  1,719
  1,822
  1,929
  2,042
  2,159
  2,281
  2,408
  2,542
  2,681
  2,827
  2,979
  3,139
  3,305
  3,480
  3,663
  3,855
  4,055
  4,266
  4,486
  4,717
  4,959
  5,214
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,516
  1,559
  1,673
  1,792
  1,915
  2,044
  2,178
  2,316
  2,461
  2,612
  2,769
  2,932
  3,103
  3,281
  3,466
  3,660
  3,863
  4,075
  4,296
  4,527
  4,770
  5,023
  5,289
  5,567
  5,858
  6,163
  6,483
  6,818
  7,169
  7,537
  7,924
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.308
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
  0.480
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.651
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -42
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  67
  75
  83
  92
  166
  176
  185
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  380
  399
  419
  441
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  74
  111
  113
  114
  116
  118
  119
  121
  123
  125
  128
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
Funds from operations, $m
  130
  137
  144
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  199
  209
  220
  207
  218
  231
  243
  257
  271
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  451
  474
  498
  523
  550
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  56
  135
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  193
  204
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
  312
  328
  346
  364
  382
  402
  423
  445
  467
  491
  516
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Cash from investing activities, $m
  6
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
Free cash flow, $m
  114
  11
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  251
  264
  278
  292
  307
  323
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -142
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -110
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  49
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  48
  126
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  187
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  237
  250
  263
  276
  291
  306
  322
  338
  355
  374
  393
  412
  433
  455
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  31
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  65
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
Discount rate, %
 
  5.00
  5.25
  5.51
  5.79
  6.08
  6.38
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  30
  46
  46
  46
  46
  46
  45
  44
  42
  40
  27
  26
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Knowles Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells micro-acoustic, audio processing, and specialty component solutions to the mobile consumer electronics, communications, medical, military, aerospace, and industrial markets worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Mobile Consumer Electronics and Specialty Components. The Mobile Consumer Electronics segment designs and manufactures acoustic products, including microphones and audio processing technologies for use in mobile handsets, wearables, and other consumer electronic devices. This segment also offers analog and digital micro-electro-mechanical systems microphones, smart microphones, software, ultrasonic sensors, and acoustic processors. The Specialty Components segment designs and manufactures electronic components used in medical and life science applications; and solutions and components used in communications infrastructure and various other markets. This segment also provides transducer products used primarily in hearing aid applications in the commercial audiology markets; oscillator products primarily for the telecom infrastructure market; and capacitor products used in various applications, such as radio, radar, satellite, power supplies, transceivers, and medical implants for the defense, aerospace, telecommunication, and life sciences markets. The company sells its products directly to original equipment manufacturers; and to its contract manufacturers and suppliers, as well as through distributors. Knowles Corporation was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Itasca, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Knowles (KN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -37.1
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -19.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29.8%
Total Debt to Equity 30.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.1%
Return On Total Capital -3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.7%
Return On Equity -4.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.8%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Net Profit Margin -4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14%
Effective Tax Rate 38.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

KN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $859 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Knowles. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Knowles. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5%, whose default value for KN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Knowles, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Knowles.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Knowles.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Knowles. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KN are equal to 39%.

Life of production assets of 16.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Knowles operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KN is equal to 14.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1009 million for Knowles - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.719 million for Knowles is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Knowles at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Knowles Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Knowles Corp. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Economist Says France Stopped Improving 20 Years Ago   [May-08-17 11:34AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Knowles Corp. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Shares of Knowles Corp Are Lower Today   [Apr-27-17 05:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Knowles reports 1Q loss   [Apr-26-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Knowles to Present at the ROTH Conference on March 14   [Mar-09-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Natixis Sees Inflows Coming Back to U.S. Affiliate Fund   [Feb-10-17 02:29AM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ My Portfolio's Uninvited Guests   [Dec-14-16 08:01AM  at Kiplinger]
▶ Is Knowles Corp (KN) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 01:13PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Knowles reports 3Q loss   [04:34PM  AP]
▶ Why Knowles Corp. Stock Slumped Today   [Jul-27-16 04:16PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Knowles reports 2Q loss   [05:02PM  AP]
Stock chart of KN Financial statements of KN Annual reports of KN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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