Intrinsic value of Knot Offshore Partners - KNOP

Previous Close

$23.40

  Intrinsic Value

$4.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$23.40

 
Intrinsic value

$4.31

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KNOP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.26
  25.60
  23.54
  21.69
  20.02
  18.52
  17.16
  15.95
  14.85
  13.87
  12.98
  12.18
  11.46
  10.82
  10.24
  9.71
  9.24
  8.82
  8.44
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.83
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
Revenue, $m
  174
  219
  270
  329
  394
  467
  548
  635
  729
  830
  938
  1,052
  1,173
  1,300
  1,433
  1,572
  1,717
  1,869
  2,026
  2,190
  2,361
  2,538
  2,722
  2,913
  3,112
  3,319
  3,534
  3,758
  3,991
  4,233
  4,486
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  58
  71
  87
  104
  123
  145
  168
  192
  219
  248
  278
  310
  343
  378
  415
  453
  493
  535
  578
  623
  670
  719
  769
  822
  876
  933
  992
  1,054
  1,118
  1,184
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  96
  99
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  106
  120
  138
  156
  176
  200
  224
  249
  278
  308
  340
  373
  408
  444
  483
  523
  565
  608
  653
  700
  749
  800
  852
  907
  963
  1,022
  1,084
  1,148
  1,214
  1,283
Operating income, $m
  82
  113
  149
  191
  238
  291
  348
  411
  479
  552
  630
  713
  800
  892
  988
  1,089
  1,194
  1,304
  1,418
  1,537
  1,661
  1,789
  1,923
  2,061
  2,206
  2,356
  2,512
  2,674
  2,843
  3,020
  3,203
EBITDA, $m
  138
  183
  236
  297
  365
  441
  524
  615
  714
  819
  932
  1,051
  1,177
  1,310
  1,449
  1,594
  1,746
  1,905
  2,070
  2,241
  2,419
  2,605
  2,798
  2,998
  3,206
  3,423
  3,648
  3,882
  4,126
  4,380
  4,645
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  25
  32
  39
  48
  58
  69
  81
  94
  108
  123
  139
  156
  174
  193
  212
  233
  255
  277
  301
  325
  350
  377
  404
  433
  462
  493
  525
  558
  593
  629
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  88
  118
  152
  190
  233
  280
  331
  386
  445
  508
  574
  644
  718
  796
  877
  961
  1,049
  1,141
  1,236
  1,335
  1,439
  1,546
  1,657
  1,773
  1,893
  2,019
  2,149
  2,285
  2,426
  2,574
Tax expense, $m
  0
  24
  32
  41
  51
  63
  76
  89
  104
  120
  137
  155
  174
  194
  215
  237
  260
  283
  308
  334
  361
  388
  417
  447
  479
  511
  545
  580
  617
  655
  695
Net income, $m
  61
  64
  86
  111
  139
  170
  204
  242
  282
  325
  371
  419
  470
  524
  581
  640
  702
  766
  833
  902
  975
  1,050
  1,128
  1,210
  1,294
  1,382
  1,474
  1,569
  1,668
  1,771
  1,879

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  28
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,292
  1,584
  1,956
  2,381
  2,857
  3,386
  3,968
  4,600
  5,284
  6,016
  6,797
  7,625
  8,500
  9,419
  10,383
  11,392
  12,444
  13,542
  14,684
  15,872
  17,107
  18,391
  19,725
  21,112
  22,553
  24,051
  25,609
  27,231
  28,918
  30,676
  32,507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,264
  1,584
  1,956
  2,381
  2,857
  3,386
  3,968
  4,600
  5,284
  6,016
  6,797
  7,625
  8,500
  9,419
  10,383
  11,392
  12,444
  13,542
  14,684
  15,872
  17,107
  18,391
  19,725
  21,112
  22,553
  24,051
  25,609
  27,231
  28,918
  30,676
  32,507
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
Average production assets, $m
  1,225
  1,539
  1,901
  2,313
  2,776
  3,290
  3,855
  4,469
  5,133
  5,845
  6,604
  7,408
  8,257
  9,151
  10,087
  11,067
  12,090
  13,156
  14,266
  15,420
  16,620
  17,867
  19,164
  20,511
  21,911
  23,366
  24,880
  26,455
  28,095
  29,802
  31,582
Working capital, $m
  -47
  -20
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -50
  -58
  -67
  -76
  -86
  -97
  -108
  -120
  -132
  -145
  -158
  -172
  -186
  -202
  -217
  -233
  -250
  -268
  -286
  -305
  -325
  -346
  -367
  -389
  -413
Total debt, $m
  742
  902
  1,120
  1,369
  1,649
  1,960
  2,301
  2,672
  3,073
  3,504
  3,962
  4,448
  4,961
  5,501
  6,067
  6,659
  7,277
  7,921
  8,591
  9,289
  10,014
  10,768
  11,551
  12,365
  13,211
  14,090
  15,005
  15,956
  16,947
  17,979
  19,054
Total liabilities, $m
  771
  930
  1,148
  1,397
  1,677
  1,988
  2,329
  2,700
  3,101
  3,532
  3,990
  4,476
  4,989
  5,529
  6,095
  6,687
  7,305
  7,949
  8,619
  9,317
  10,042
  10,796
  11,579
  12,393
  13,239
  14,118
  15,033
  15,984
  16,975
  18,007
  19,082
Total equity, $m
  522
  654
  808
  983
  1,180
  1,399
  1,639
  1,900
  2,182
  2,485
  2,807
  3,149
  3,510
  3,890
  4,288
  4,705
  5,140
  5,593
  6,064
  6,555
  7,065
  7,596
  8,147
  8,719
  9,314
  9,933
  10,577
  11,246
  11,943
  12,669
  13,426
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,293
  1,584
  1,956
  2,380
  2,857
  3,387
  3,968
  4,600
  5,283
  6,017
  6,797
  7,625
  8,499
  9,419
  10,383
  11,392
  12,445
  13,542
  14,683
  15,872
  17,107
  18,392
  19,726
  21,112
  22,553
  24,051
  25,610
  27,230
  28,918
  30,676
  32,508
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.421
  1.380
  1.390
  1.390
  1.400
  1.400
  1.400
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.410
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
  1.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.391
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413
  0.413

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  64
  86
  111
  139
  170
  204
  242
  282
  325
  371
  419
  470
  524
  581
  640
  702
  766
  833
  902
  975
  1,050
  1,128
  1,210
  1,294
  1,382
  1,474
  1,569
  1,668
  1,771
  1,879
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  70
  87
  106
  127
  150
  176
  204
  234
  267
  302
  338
  377
  418
  461
  505
  552
  601
  651
  704
  759
  816
  875
  937
  1,000
  1,067
  1,136
  1,208
  1,283
  1,361
  1,442
Funds from operations, $m
  106
  134
  173
  217
  266
  320
  380
  446
  516
  592
  672
  757
  847
  942
  1,041
  1,145
  1,254
  1,367
  1,484
  1,607
  1,734
  1,866
  2,003
  2,146
  2,295
  2,449
  2,610
  2,777
  2,951
  3,132
  3,321
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  138
  178
  222
  272
  327
  388
  454
  525
  601
  682
  768
  859
  954
  1,054
  1,158
  1,267
  1,381
  1,499
  1,622
  1,749
  1,882
  2,020
  2,164
  2,313
  2,468
  2,629
  2,797
  2,972
  3,154
  3,344
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -56
  -70
  -87
  -106
  -127
  -150
  -176
  -204
  -234
  -267
  -302
  -338
  -377
  -418
  -461
  -505
  -552
  -601
  -651
  -704
  -759
  -816
  -875
  -937
  -1,000
  -1,067
  -1,136
  -1,208
  -1,283
  -1,361
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -314
  -362
  -412
  -463
  -514
  -565
  -615
  -664
  -712
  -759
  -805
  -849
  -893
  -937
  -980
  -1,023
  -1,066
  -1,110
  -1,154
  -1,200
  -1,247
  -1,296
  -1,347
  -1,400
  -1,456
  -1,514
  -1,575
  -1,640
  -1,708
  -1,779
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -14
  -370
  -432
  -499
  -569
  -641
  -715
  -791
  -868
  -946
  -1,026
  -1,107
  -1,187
  -1,270
  -1,355
  -1,441
  -1,528
  -1,618
  -1,711
  -1,805
  -1,904
  -2,006
  -2,112
  -2,222
  -2,337
  -2,456
  -2,581
  -2,711
  -2,848
  -2,991
  -3,140
Free cash flow, $m
  94
  -231
  -255
  -277
  -297
  -314
  -327
  -337
  -343
  -345
  -344
  -338
  -329
  -317
  -301
  -282
  -261
  -237
  -212
  -184
  -155
  -124
  -92
  -58
  -24
  12
  49
  86
  125
  164
  204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  188
  219
  249
  280
  311
  341
  371
  401
  430
  458
  486
  513
  540
  566
  592
  618
  644
  671
  697
  725
  754
  783
  814
  846
  879
  915
  952
  991
  1,032
  1,075
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  68
  68
  64
  58
  48
  36
  20
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -30
  256
  287
  313
  338
  359
  377
  391
  402
  430
  458
  486
  513
  540
  566
  592
  618
  644
  671
  697
  725
  754
  783
  814
  846
  879
  915
  952
  991
  1,032
  1,075
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  64
  25
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  54
  58
  85
  115
  148
  184
  223
  265
  310
  357
  407
  459
  513
  570
  630
  691
  756
  822
  892
  963
  1,038
  1,115
  1,196
  1,279
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -132
  -154
  -175
  -197
  -218
  -240
  -261
  -282
  -303
  -323
  -342
  -361
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -435
  -453
  -472
  -491
  -510
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -595
  -619
  -644
  -670
  -697
  -726
  -756
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -108
  -122
  -139
  -156
  -173
  -190
  -207
  -224
  -218
  -208
  -194
  -177
  -157
  -133
  -107
  -78
  -47
  -13
  23
  60
  100
  140
  183
  227
  273
  320
  368
  418
  470
  523
Discount rate, %
 
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -105
  -103
  -99
  -93
  -86
  -71
  -56
  -43
  -32
  -22
  -15
  -9
  -5
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  91.2
  84.7
  80.0
  76.7
  74.5
  73.1
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4

KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOT Offshore Partners or the Partnership), owns, operates and acquires shuttle tankers under long-term charters. The Partnership's vessels in its fleet are chartered to Statoil ASA (Statoil), Petrobras Transporte S.A. (Transpetro), Repsol Sinopec Brasil, S.A. (Repsol), Royal Dutch Shell plc, ExxonMobil, and Eni Trading and Shipping S.p.A. (ENI). As of March 17, 2017, the Company had a fleet of 12 shuttle tankers. Its shuttle tankers include Fortaleza Knutsen, Recife Knutsen, Bodil Knutsen and Dan Cisne. KNOT Offshore Partners GP LLC is the general partner of the Partnership. It is engaged in the loading, transportation and storage of the crude oil using the vessels in its fleet. It provides all of these services under time charters and bareboat charters. As of December 31, 2016, eight of its shuttle tankers were chartered under time charters and four of its shuttle tankers were chartered under bareboat charters.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Knot Offshore Partners (KNOP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 3.7
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 130.8%
Total Debt to Equity 142.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 11.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81%
EBITDA Margin 67.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.5%
Operating Margin 47.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 35.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Net Profit Margin 35.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 98.4%

KNOP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KNOP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $174 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Knot Offshore Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Knot Offshore Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KNOP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for KNOP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Knot Offshore Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Knot Offshore Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KNOP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 26.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $47 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KNOP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Knot Offshore Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Knot Offshore Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KNOP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KNOP are equal to 704%.

Life of production assets of 21.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Knot Offshore Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KNOP is equal to -9.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $522 million for Knot Offshore Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.253 million for Knot Offshore Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Knot Offshore Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Knot Offshore posts 2Q profit   [Aug-09-17 09:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ KNOT Offshore Partners LP Announces 2017 Annual Meeting   [Jun-28-17 06:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Top Dividend Stocks in Shipping   [May-18-17 05:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Knot Offshore posts 1Q profit   [May-16-17 10:40AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of KNOP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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