Intrinsic value of Koppers Holdings - KOP

Previous Close

$37.60

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-148%

Previous close

$37.60

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-148%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KOP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.97
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,416
  1,444
  1,478
  1,516
  1,558
  1,605
  1,657
  1,714
  1,775
  1,841
  1,911
  1,987
  2,067
  2,153
  2,244
  2,341
  2,444
  2,553
  2,667
  2,789
  2,917
  3,052
  3,195
  3,345
  3,503
  3,670
  3,846
  4,031
  4,225
  4,430
  4,645
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,470
  1,503
  1,541
  1,584
  1,632
  1,684
  1,741
  1,802
  1,868
  1,939
  1,996
  2,077
  2,164
  2,255
  2,353
  2,456
  2,565
  2,680
  2,802
  2,931
  3,067
  3,210
  3,361
  3,520
  3,688
  3,864
  4,050
  4,246
  4,451
  4,667
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,330
  1,470
  1,503
  1,541
  1,584
  1,632
  1,684
  1,741
  1,802
  1,868
  1,939
  1,996
  2,077
  2,164
  2,255
  2,353
  2,456
  2,565
  2,680
  2,802
  2,931
  3,067
  3,210
  3,361
  3,520
  3,688
  3,864
  4,050
  4,246
  4,451
  4,667
Operating income, $m
  86
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
EBITDA, $m
  139
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  41
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  157
  165
Earnings before tax, $m
  39
  -67
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
Tax expense, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  29
  -67
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,088
  1,110
  1,136
  1,165
  1,198
  1,234
  1,274
  1,317
  1,364
  1,415
  1,469
  1,527
  1,589
  1,655
  1,725
  1,800
  1,878
  1,962
  2,050
  2,144
  2,242
  2,346
  2,456
  2,571
  2,693
  2,821
  2,956
  3,098
  3,248
  3,405
  3,570
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,067
  1,110
  1,136
  1,165
  1,198
  1,234
  1,274
  1,317
  1,364
  1,415
  1,469
  1,527
  1,589
  1,655
  1,725
  1,800
  1,878
  1,962
  2,050
  2,144
  2,242
  2,346
  2,456
  2,571
  2,693
  2,821
  2,956
  3,098
  3,248
  3,405
  3,570
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.327
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
  1.301
Average production assets, $m
  429
  438
  448
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  538
  558
  579
  602
  626
  652
  680
  709
  741
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,014
  1,062
  1,112
  1,165
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
Working capital, $m
  145
  170
  174
  179
  184
  189
  196
  202
  209
  217
  226
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  413
  433
  454
  476
  499
  523
  548
Total debt, $m
  662
  603
  626
  652
  682
  715
  750
  789
  832
  877
  926
  978
  1,034
  1,094
  1,157
  1,224
  1,295
  1,370
  1,449
  1,533
  1,622
  1,715
  1,814
  1,918
  2,028
  2,143
  2,264
  2,392
  2,527
  2,668
  2,817
Total liabilities, $m
  1,057
  999
  1,022
  1,048
  1,078
  1,111
  1,146
  1,185
  1,228
  1,273
  1,322
  1,374
  1,430
  1,490
  1,553
  1,620
  1,691
  1,766
  1,845
  1,929
  2,018
  2,111
  2,210
  2,314
  2,424
  2,539
  2,660
  2,788
  2,923
  3,064
  3,213
Total equity, $m
  30
  111
  114
  116
  120
  123
  127
  132
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  235
  246
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,087
  1,110
  1,136
  1,164
  1,198
  1,234
  1,273
  1,317
  1,364
  1,414
  1,469
  1,527
  1,589
  1,656
  1,726
  1,800
  1,879
  1,962
  2,050
  2,143
  2,242
  2,346
  2,456
  2,571
  2,693
  2,821
  2,956
  3,098
  3,248
  3,404
  3,570
Debt-to-equity ratio
  22.067
  5.430
  5.510
  5.600
  5.690
  5.790
  5.890
  5.990
  6.100
  6.200
  6.300
  6.410
  6.510
  6.610
  6.700
  6.800
  6.890
  6.980
  7.070
  7.150
  7.230
  7.310
  7.390
  7.460
  7.530
  7.600
  7.660
  7.720
  7.780
  7.840
  7.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.008
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  -67
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  53
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  -10
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  120
  -14
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -87
  -92
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
New CAPEX, $m
  -50
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -54
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  -60
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -61
  -59
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  149
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  148
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  73
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -63
  89
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  125
  133
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  258
  271
  286
  302
  319
  336
  354
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  29
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -49
  -148
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -119
  -35
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
Discount rate, %
 
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.23
  23.35
  24.51
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.49
  36.22
  38.03
  39.93
  41.93
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -105
  -27
  -23
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  67.0
  63.3
  59.7
  56.3
  53.1
  50.1
  47.2
  44.5
  41.9
  39.4
  37.6
  35.8
  34.0
  32.4
  30.7
  29.2
  27.7
  26.3
  24.9
  23.6
  22.3
  21.1
  20.0
  18.9
  17.9
  16.9
  15.9
  15.1
  14.2
  13.4

Koppers Holdings Inc. provides carbon compounds, wood treatment chemicals, and treated wood products and services in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Railroad and Utility Products and Services (RUPS), Carbon Materials and Chemicals (CMC), and Performance Chemicals (PC). The RUPS segment procures and treats crossties, switch ties, and various types of lumber used for railroad bridges and crossings. It also provides rail joint bars to join rails together for railroads; transmission and distribution poles for electric and telephone utilities; and pilings. This segment conducts engineering, design, repair, and inspection services for railroad bridges. The CMC segment manufactures creosote used in the treatment of wood or as a feedstock in the production of carbon black; carbon pitch, a raw material used in the production of aluminum and steel; naphthalene used in the production of phthalic anhydride and as a surfactant in the production of concrete; phthalic anhydride for the production of plasticizers, polyester resins, and alkyd paints; and carbon black feedstock for use in the production of carbon black, as well as sells refined tars, benzole, and specialty chemicals. The Performance Chemicals segment develops, manufactures, and markets water-based wood preservatives and wood specialty additives, including micronized copper quaternary and micronized copper azole, micronized pigments, alkaline copper quaternary, amine copper azole, and chromated copper arsenate for wood treaters. The company serves the railroad, specialty chemical, utility, residential lumber, agriculture, aluminum, steel, rubber, and construction industries. Koppers Holdings Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Koppers Holdings (KOP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.8
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 25.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 2063.3%
Total Debt to Equity 2206.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Return On Equity 527.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.8%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
EBITDA Margin 9.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Operating Margin 6.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 30.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -177%
Payout Ratio 0%

KOP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KOP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1416 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Koppers Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Koppers Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KOP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13%, whose default value for KOP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Koppers Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Koppers Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KOP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KOP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Koppers Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Koppers Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KOP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KOP are equal to 30.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Koppers Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KOP is equal to 11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $30 million for Koppers Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.478 million for Koppers Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Koppers Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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Stock chart of KOP Financial statements of KOP Annual reports of KOP
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