Intrinsic value of Kornit Digital - KRNT

Previous Close

$15.10

  Intrinsic Value

$0.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$15.10

 
Intrinsic value

$0.76

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  26.74
  26.70
  24.53
  22.58
  20.82
  19.24
  17.81
  16.53
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.96
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
Revenue, $m
  109
  138
  172
  211
  255
  304
  358
  417
  481
  550
  624
  702
  785
  872
  964
  1,060
  1,161
  1,265
  1,374
  1,488
  1,606
  1,729
  1,856
  1,989
  2,126
  2,269
  2,418
  2,573
  2,734
  2,902
  3,077
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  130
  162
  199
  240
  286
  337
  393
  453
  518
  587
  660
  738
  821
  907
  997
  1,092
  1,190
  1,293
  1,399
  1,510
  1,626
  1,746
  1,870
  2,000
  2,134
  2,274
  2,420
  2,571
  2,729
  2,893
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  107
  130
  162
  199
  240
  286
  337
  393
  453
  518
  587
  660
  738
  821
  907
  997
  1,092
  1,190
  1,293
  1,399
  1,510
  1,626
  1,746
  1,870
  2,000
  2,134
  2,274
  2,420
  2,571
  2,729
  2,893
Operating income, $m
  1
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  173
  183
EBITDA, $m
  4
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  48
  53
  60
  66
  73
  81
  88
  96
  105
  113
  122
  132
  141
  152
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  8
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
Net income, $m
  1
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  140
  128
  159
  195
  236
  281
  332
  386
  446
  510
  578
  651
  728
  809
  894
  983
  1,076
  1,173
  1,274
  1,379
  1,488
  1,602
  1,720
  1,843
  1,971
  2,103
  2,241
  2,385
  2,534
  2,689
  2,851
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  101
  128
  159
  195
  236
  281
  332
  386
  446
  510
  578
  651
  728
  809
  894
  983
  1,076
  1,173
  1,274
  1,379
  1,488
  1,602
  1,720
  1,843
  1,971
  2,103
  2,241
  2,385
  2,534
  2,689
  2,851
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.079
  1.078
  1.082
  1.082
  1.081
  1.082
  1.078
  1.080
  1.078
  1.078
  1.080
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.079
  1.078
  1.078
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
  1.079
Average production assets, $m
  9
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  154
  165
  176
  188
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
Working capital, $m
  69
  38
  47
  58
  70
  84
  98
  115
  132
  151
  172
  193
  216
  240
  265
  292
  319
  348
  378
  409
  442
  475
  510
  547
  585
  624
  665
  708
  752
  798
  846
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  19
  31
  44
  59
  75
  93
  113
  134
  156
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  319
  350
  384
  418
  454
  491
  530
  570
  611
  655
  700
  747
  796
  846
  899
Total liabilities, $m
  33
  42
  52
  64
  77
  92
  108
  126
  146
  167
  189
  213
  238
  264
  292
  321
  352
  383
  417
  451
  487
  524
  563
  603
  644
  688
  733
  780
  829
  879
  932
Total equity, $m
  107
  86
  107
  131
  159
  189
  223
  260
  300
  343
  389
  438
  490
  544
  601
  661
  724
  789
  857
  928
  1,002
  1,078
  1,158
  1,240
  1,326
  1,415
  1,508
  1,605
  1,705
  1,810
  1,919
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  140
  128
  159
  195
  236
  281
  331
  386
  446
  510
  578
  651
  728
  808
  893
  982
  1,076
  1,172
  1,274
  1,379
  1,489
  1,602
  1,721
  1,843
  1,970
  2,103
  2,241
  2,385
  2,534
  2,689
  2,851
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.180
  0.230
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673
  0.673

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  -8
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  2
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  22
  22
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  17
  16
  14
  13
  11
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  1
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  21
  24
  28
  30
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  49
  49
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  49
  49
  50
  50
  51
  53
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  99
  106
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -105
  -109
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  38
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -3
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.3
  93.1
  90.2
  87.8
  85.7
  83.8
  82.2
  80.7
  79.5
  78.4
  77.5
  76.7
  76.0
  75.3
  74.8
  74.3
  73.9
  73.6
  73.3
  73.1
  72.9
  72.7
  72.6
  72.5
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4
  72.4

Kornit Digital Ltd. develops, designs and markets digital printing solutions for the global printed textile industry. The Company's solutions include its digital printing systems, ink and other consumables, associated software and value added services. Its customers include custom decorators, online businesses, brand owners and contract printers. The Company categorizes its Direct to Garment (DTG) systems into two groups: entry level and high throughput. The Company's entry-level systems consist of its Breeze and Thunder systems. Its high throughput systems consist of its Avalanche family of systems, Storm II and Paradigm II. Allegro is its Roll to Roll (R2R) printing system. Its ink and other consumables consist of NeoPigment PURE ink, binding agent, priming fluid, wiping fluid and flushing fluid. Its pigment-based inks are available in over seven colors and are formulated for use in its systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kornit Digital (KRNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 457.5
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 457.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -114.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 26.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Return On Equity 1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 45%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.5%
EBITDA Margin 3.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin 1.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

KRNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $109 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kornit Digital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kornit Digital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KRNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kornit Digital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kornit Digital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Kornit Digital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kornit Digital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRNT are equal to 8.3%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kornit Digital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRNT is equal to 27.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $107 million for Kornit Digital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.733 million for Kornit Digital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kornit Digital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kornit Digital to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Dec-21-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Kornit Digital Ltd. Stock Just Crashed 20%   [Sep-27-17 01:17PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Kornit Digital beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 10:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kornit Digital Reports 2017 Second Quarter Results   [Aug-07-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kornit Digital Ltd. : July 12, 2017   [Jul-12-17 02:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kornit Digital Ltd. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kornit Digital Ltd. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kornit Digital to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jun-01-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kornit Digital Reports 2017 First Quarter Results   [May-09-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Kornit Digital Ltd. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Kornit Digital posts 4Q profit   [04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kornit Digital Signs Agreement with Amazon   [07:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kornit Digital to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Dec-28-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Kornit Digital to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Jun-01-16 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of KRNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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