Intrinsic value of Kronos Worldwide - KRO

Previous Close

$17.31

  Intrinsic Value

$5.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-70%

  Value-price divergence*

-21%

Previous close

$17.31

 
Intrinsic value

$5.15

 
Up/down potential

-70%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-21%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.11
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  1,364
  1,425
  1,503
  1,586
  1,672
  1,762
  1,857
  1,955
  2,059
  2,167
  2,281
  2,399
  2,524
  2,654
  2,791
  2,934
  3,085
  3,242
  3,408
  3,581
  3,763
  3,954
  4,154
  4,365
  4,585
  4,817
  5,060
  5,314
  5,582
  5,863
  6,158
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  715
  755
  796
  839
  885
  932
  982
  1,034
  1,088
  1,145
  1,204
  1,267
  1,332
  1,401
  1,473
  1,549
  1,628
  1,711
  1,798
  1,889
  1,985
  2,086
  2,191
  2,302
  2,418
  2,540
  2,668
  2,802
  2,943
  3,091
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  707
  725
  743
  762
  781
  800
  820
  841
  862
  883
  905
  928
  951
  975
  999
  1,024
  1,050
  1,076
  1,103
  1,131
  1,159
  1,188
  1,218
  1,248
  1,279
  1,311
  1,344
  1,378
  1,412
  1,447
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,283
  1,422
  1,480
  1,539
  1,601
  1,666
  1,732
  1,802
  1,875
  1,950
  2,028
  2,109
  2,195
  2,283
  2,376
  2,472
  2,573
  2,678
  2,787
  2,901
  3,020
  3,144
  3,274
  3,409
  3,550
  3,697
  3,851
  4,012
  4,180
  4,355
  4,538
Operating income, $m
  81
  2
  24
  47
  71
  97
  124
  154
  185
  218
  252
  290
  329
  371
  415
  462
  512
  565
  621
  680
  743
  810
  881
  956
  1,035
  1,119
  1,208
  1,303
  1,402
  1,508
  1,619
EBITDA, $m
  122
  47
  71
  96
  123
  152
  182
  215
  249
  285
  324
  364
  408
  453
  502
  554
  608
  666
  727
  792
  861
  934
  1,011
  1,092
  1,178
  1,270
  1,366
  1,468
  1,576
  1,691
  1,811
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  -15
  5
  25
  47
  71
  96
  122
  150
  180
  212
  246
  282
  320
  361
  404
  449
  498
  549
  604
  662
  724
  789
  858
  932
  1,009
  1,092
  1,179
  1,271
  1,369
  1,472
Tax expense, $m
  18
  0
  1
  7
  13
  19
  26
  33
  41
  49
  57
  66
  76
  86
  97
  109
  121
  134
  148
  163
  179
  195
  213
  232
  252
  273
  295
  318
  343
  370
  398
Net income, $m
  43
  -15
  3
  19
  35
  52
  70
  89
  110
  132
  155
  179
  206
  234
  263
  295
  328
  363
  401
  441
  483
  528
  576
  627
  680
  737
  797
  861
  928
  999
  1,075

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,180
  1,214
  1,282
  1,352
  1,426
  1,502
  1,583
  1,667
  1,755
  1,848
  1,944
  2,045
  2,152
  2,263
  2,379
  2,502
  2,630
  2,764
  2,905
  3,053
  3,208
  3,371
  3,542
  3,721
  3,909
  4,106
  4,313
  4,531
  4,759
  4,998
  5,250
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,129
  1,214
  1,282
  1,352
  1,426
  1,502
  1,583
  1,667
  1,755
  1,848
  1,944
  2,045
  2,152
  2,263
  2,379
  2,502
  2,630
  2,764
  2,905
  3,053
  3,208
  3,371
  3,542
  3,721
  3,909
  4,106
  4,313
  4,531
  4,759
  4,998
  5,250
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.208
  1.174
  1.172
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
  1.173
Average production assets, $m
  432
  480
  507
  534
  564
  594
  626
  659
  694
  730
  769
  809
  851
  894
  941
  989
  1,040
  1,093
  1,148
  1,207
  1,268
  1,333
  1,400
  1,471
  1,545
  1,623
  1,705
  1,791
  1,881
  1,976
  2,075
Working capital, $m
  468
  443
  468
  493
  520
  548
  577
  608
  640
  674
  709
  746
  785
  825
  868
  913
  959
  1,008
  1,060
  1,114
  1,170
  1,230
  1,292
  1,357
  1,426
  1,498
  1,574
  1,653
  1,736
  1,823
  1,915
Total debt, $m
  339
  381
  426
  474
  524
  576
  630
  687
  747
  809
  874
  943
  1,014
  1,090
  1,168
  1,251
  1,338
  1,429
  1,524
  1,624
  1,729
  1,839
  1,954
  2,075
  2,202
  2,336
  2,476
  2,623
  2,777
  2,939
  3,109
Total liabilities, $m
  785
  821
  866
  914
  964
  1,016
  1,070
  1,127
  1,187
  1,249
  1,314
  1,383
  1,454
  1,530
  1,608
  1,691
  1,778
  1,869
  1,964
  2,064
  2,169
  2,279
  2,394
  2,515
  2,642
  2,776
  2,916
  3,063
  3,217
  3,379
  3,549
Total equity, $m
  395
  393
  415
  438
  462
  487
  513
  540
  569
  599
  630
  663
  697
  733
  771
  811
  852
  896
  941
  989
  1,039
  1,092
  1,148
  1,206
  1,266
  1,330
  1,398
  1,468
  1,542
  1,619
  1,701
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,180
  1,214
  1,281
  1,352
  1,426
  1,503
  1,583
  1,667
  1,756
  1,848
  1,944
  2,046
  2,151
  2,263
  2,379
  2,502
  2,630
  2,765
  2,905
  3,053
  3,208
  3,371
  3,542
  3,721
  3,908
  4,106
  4,314
  4,531
  4,759
  4,998
  5,250
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.858
  0.970
  1.030
  1.080
  1.130
  1.180
  1.230
  1.270
  1.310
  1.350
  1.390
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.520
  1.540
  1.570
  1.600
  1.620
  1.640
  1.660
  1.680
  1.700
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.770
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.305
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324
  0.324

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  -15
  3
  19
  35
  52
  70
  89
  110
  132
  155
  179
  206
  234
  263
  295
  328
  363
  401
  441
  483
  528
  576
  627
  680
  737
  797
  861
  928
  999
  1,075
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  30
  50
  68
  87
  107
  128
  150
  174
  199
  226
  254
  284
  316
  350
  386
  424
  465
  507
  553
  601
  652
  706
  763
  823
  887
  955
  1,026
  1,102
  1,182
  1,267
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  -19
  26
  42
  60
  79
  98
  119
  142
  165
  191
  217
  246
  276
  308
  342
  378
  416
  456
  499
  544
  592
  643
  697
  755
  815
  879
  947
  1,019
  1,095
  1,175
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -183
New CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -173
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -210
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  -86
  -45
  -32
  -19
  -4
  12
  28
  46
  65
  85
  106
  129
  153
  179
  206
  235
  266
  299
  334
  371
  411
  452
  497
  544
  594
  647
  703
  763
  826
  893
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  44
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  22
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  44
  67
  56
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  -42
  0
  15
  31
  48
  66
  85
  106
  127
  150
  175
  201
  228
  258
  289
  322
  357
  394
  434
  476
  521
  568
  618
  671
  727
  787
  850
  917
  988
  1,063
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  27
  0
  0
  7
  23
  40
  58
  77
  97
  119
  142
  166
  192
  220
  249
  280
  314
  349
  386
  426
  468
  513
  560
  610
  664
  720
  780
  843
  910
  981
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  5
  15
  24
  31
  37
  41
  43
  44
  44
  42
  40
  37
  33
  29
  25
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  98.7
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3
  98.3

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. produces and markets titanium dioxide pigments (TiO2) worldwide. It produces TiO2 in two crystalline forms, rutile and anatase to impart whiteness, brightness, opacity, and durability for products, paints, coatings, plastics, paper, fibers, and ceramics, as well as for various specialty products, such as inks, food, and cosmetics. The company also provides ilmenite, a raw material used directly as a feedstock by sulfate-process TiO2 plants; iron-based chemicals, which are co-products and processed co-products of the sulfate and chloride process TiO2 pigment production used as treatment and conditioning agents for industrial effluents and municipal wastewater, as well as in the manufacture of iron pigments, cement, and agricultural products; and titanium oxychloride and titanyl sulfate that are side-stream specialty products from the production of TiO2 under the Kronos brand name. The company’s titanium oxychloride is used in the formulation of pearlescent pigments and production of electroceramic capacitors for cell phones and other electronic devices; and titanyl sulfate is used in pearlescent pigments, natural gas pipe, and other specialty applications. In addition, it sells and provides technical services for its products. The company sells its products through distributors and agents to paint, plastics, decorative laminate, and paper manufacturers. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Kronos Worldwide, Inc. is a subsidiary of Valhi, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kronos Worldwide (KRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.7
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 5.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 54.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.8%
Total Debt to Equity 85.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.2%
Payout Ratio 162.8%

KRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1349 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kronos Worldwide. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kronos Worldwide. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for KRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kronos Worldwide, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kronos Worldwide.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $690 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Kronos Worldwide.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kronos Worldwide. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRO are equal to 33.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kronos Worldwide operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRO is equal to 31.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $462 million for Kronos Worldwide - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 115.331 million for Kronos Worldwide is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kronos Worldwide at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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Stock chart of KRO Financial statements of KRO Annual reports of KRO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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