Intrinsic value of Kronos Worldwide - KRO

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$17.11

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$17.11

 
Intrinsic value

$0.86

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.11
  16.40
  15.26
  14.23
  13.31
  12.48
  11.73
  11.06
  10.45
  9.91
  9.42
  8.97
  8.58
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  1,364
  1,588
  1,830
  2,090
  2,369
  2,664
  2,977
  3,306
  3,652
  4,013
  4,391
  4,785
  5,196
  5,623
  6,067
  6,529
  7,008
  7,507
  8,025
  8,563
  9,124
  9,706
  10,313
  10,944
  11,602
  12,287
  13,002
  13,748
  14,527
  15,340
  16,189
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,589
  1,832
  2,093
  2,371
  2,667
  2,980
  3,309
  3,655
  4,017
  4,396
  4,790
  5,201
  5,629
  6,073
  6,535
  7,015
  7,514
  8,033
  8,572
  9,133
  9,716
  10,323
  10,955
  11,613
  12,300
  13,015
  13,762
  14,541
  15,355
  16,205
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,283
  1,589
  1,832
  2,093
  2,371
  2,667
  2,980
  3,309
  3,655
  4,017
  4,396
  4,790
  5,201
  5,629
  6,073
  6,535
  7,015
  7,514
  8,033
  8,572
  9,133
  9,716
  10,323
  10,955
  11,613
  12,300
  13,015
  13,762
  14,541
  15,355
  16,205
Operating income, $m
  81
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
EBITDA, $m
  122
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  87
  97
  107
  117
  128
  140
  152
  164
  177
  191
  205
  219
  234
  250
  266
  283
  301
  319
  339
  359
  380
  401
  424
  448
  473
Interest expense (income), $m
  18
  18
  25
  32
  40
  48
  57
  67
  77
  87
  98
  110
  122
  134
  147
  161
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  309
  329
  349
  371
  394
  417
  442
Earnings before tax, $m
  61
  -19
  -26
  -34
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -103
  -114
  -127
  -140
  -153
  -167
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -229
  -245
  -263
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -385
  -408
  -433
  -458
Tax expense, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  43
  -19
  -26
  -34
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -103
  -114
  -127
  -140
  -153
  -167
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -229
  -245
  -263
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -385
  -408
  -433
  -458

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,180
  1,314
  1,515
  1,731
  1,961
  2,206
  2,464
  2,737
  3,023
  3,322
  3,635
  3,961
  4,301
  4,655
  5,022
  5,405
  5,802
  6,214
  6,643
  7,089
  7,553
  8,035
  8,537
  9,060
  9,604
  10,172
  10,763
  11,381
  12,025
  12,698
  13,401
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,129
  1,314
  1,515
  1,731
  1,961
  2,206
  2,464
  2,737
  3,023
  3,322
  3,635
  3,961
  4,301
  4,655
  5,022
  5,405
  5,802
  6,214
  6,643
  7,089
  7,553
  8,035
  8,537
  9,060
  9,604
  10,172
  10,763
  11,381
  12,025
  12,698
  13,401
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.208
  1.209
  1.208
  1.207
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
  1.208
Average production assets, $m
  432
  503
  580
  663
  751
  845
  944
  1,048
  1,158
  1,272
  1,392
  1,517
  1,647
  1,783
  1,923
  2,070
  2,222
  2,380
  2,544
  2,715
  2,892
  3,077
  3,269
  3,469
  3,678
  3,895
  4,122
  4,358
  4,605
  4,863
  5,132
Working capital, $m
  468
  491
  565
  646
  732
  823
  920
  1,022
  1,128
  1,240
  1,357
  1,479
  1,606
  1,738
  1,875
  2,017
  2,166
  2,320
  2,480
  2,646
  2,819
  2,999
  3,187
  3,382
  3,585
  3,797
  4,018
  4,248
  4,489
  4,740
  5,002
Total debt, $m
  339
  464
  602
  752
  911
  1,080
  1,259
  1,448
  1,646
  1,853
  2,070
  2,295
  2,530
  2,775
  3,030
  3,294
  3,569
  3,854
  4,151
  4,460
  4,780
  5,114
  5,462
  5,823
  6,200
  6,593
  7,002
  7,430
  7,876
  8,341
  8,828
Total liabilities, $m
  785
  910
  1,048
  1,198
  1,357
  1,526
  1,705
  1,894
  2,092
  2,299
  2,516
  2,741
  2,976
  3,221
  3,476
  3,740
  4,015
  4,300
  4,597
  4,906
  5,226
  5,560
  5,908
  6,269
  6,646
  7,039
  7,448
  7,876
  8,322
  8,787
  9,274
Total equity, $m
  395
  405
  467
  533
  604
  679
  759
  843
  931
  1,023
  1,120
  1,220
  1,325
  1,434
  1,547
  1,665
  1,787
  1,914
  2,046
  2,183
  2,326
  2,475
  2,629
  2,790
  2,958
  3,133
  3,315
  3,505
  3,704
  3,911
  4,128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,180
  1,315
  1,515
  1,731
  1,961
  2,205
  2,464
  2,737
  3,023
  3,322
  3,636
  3,961
  4,301
  4,655
  5,023
  5,405
  5,802
  6,214
  6,643
  7,089
  7,552
  8,035
  8,537
  9,059
  9,604
  10,172
  10,763
  11,381
  12,026
  12,698
  13,402
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.858
  1.150
  1.290
  1.410
  1.510
  1.590
  1.660
  1.720
  1.770
  1.810
  1.850
  1.880
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.060
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.305
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308
  0.308

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  43
  -19
  -26
  -34
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -103
  -114
  -127
  -140
  -153
  -167
  -182
  -197
  -212
  -229
  -245
  -263
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -385
  -408
  -433
  -458
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  41
  48
  55
  63
  72
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  133
  144
  157
  170
  183
  197
  212
  227
  242
  259
  275
  293
  311
  330
  350
  371
  393
  415
  439
  463
  489
Funds from operations, $m
  76
  29
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  69
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  262
Cash from operations, $m
  90
  -39
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -232
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -72
  -80
  -90
  -100
  -110
  -121
  -133
  -144
  -157
  -170
  -183
  -197
  -212
  -227
  -242
  -259
  -275
  -293
  -311
  -330
  -350
  -371
  -393
  -415
  -439
  -463
New CAPEX, $m
  -53
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -217
  -227
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -269
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -112
  -125
  -138
  -151
  -166
  -179
  -194
  -210
  -225
  -241
  -258
  -274
  -292
  -311
  -329
  -349
  -370
  -391
  -413
  -437
  -460
  -485
  -511
  -539
  -567
  -598
  -629
  -662
  -697
  -732
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  -151
  -171
  -189
  -208
  -227
  -246
  -266
  -286
  -307
  -328
  -349
  -371
  -394
  -418
  -442
  -467
  -494
  -521
  -549
  -579
  -610
  -643
  -677
  -712
  -749
  -788
  -829
  -872
  -917
  -964
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  129
  139
  149
  159
  169
  179
  189
  198
  207
  216
  226
  235
  245
  254
  264
  275
  286
  297
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  393
  410
  427
  446
  466
  487
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  32
  94
  106
  120
  133
  147
  162
  176
  192
  208
  224
  241
  258
  277
  295
  315
  335
  356
  378
  401
  425
  450
  476
  503
  531
  561
  592
  625
  659
  694
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  161
  233
  255
  279
  302
  326
  351
  374
  399
  424
  450
  476
  503
  531
  559
  590
  621
  653
  687
  722
  759
  797
  838
  880
  924
  971
  1,019
  1,071
  1,125
  1,181
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  -22
  -32
  -40
  -49
  -58
  -67
  -78
  -88
  -100
  -111
  -124
  -136
  -150
  -163
  -178
  -193
  -208
  -224
  -241
  -258
  -276
  -295
  -315
  -335
  -357
  -379
  -402
  -426
  -451
  -478
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -207
  -217
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.2
  93.8
  89.7
  85.8
  82.1
  78.7
  75.4
  72.4
  69.5
  66.8
  64.2
  61.7
  59.4
  57.2
  55.0
  53.0
  51.1
  49.2
  47.5
  45.8
  44.1
  42.6
  41.1
  39.6
  38.2
  36.9
  35.6
  34.4
  33.2
  32.1

Kronos Worldwide, Inc. produces and markets titanium dioxide pigments (TiO2) worldwide. It produces TiO2 in two crystalline forms, rutile and anatase to impart whiteness, brightness, opacity, and durability for products, paints, coatings, plastics, paper, fibers, and ceramics, as well as for various specialty products, such as inks, food, and cosmetics. The company also provides ilmenite, a raw material used directly as a feedstock by sulfate-process TiO2 plants; iron-based chemicals, which are co-products and processed co-products of the sulfate and chloride process TiO2 pigment production used as treatment and conditioning agents for industrial effluents and municipal wastewater, as well as in the manufacture of iron pigments, cement, and agricultural products; and titanium oxychloride and titanyl sulfate that are side-stream specialty products from the production of TiO2 under the Kronos brand name. The company’s titanium oxychloride is used in the formulation of pearlescent pigments and production of electroceramic capacitors for cell phones and other electronic devices; and titanyl sulfate is used in pearlescent pigments, natural gas pipe, and other specialty applications. In addition, it sells and provides technical services for its products. The company sells its products through distributors and agents to paint, plastics, decorative laminate, and paper manufacturers. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Kronos Worldwide, Inc. is a subsidiary of Valhi, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kronos Worldwide (KRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 84.8%
Total Debt to Equity 85.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 5.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 29.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -135.2%
Payout Ratio 162.8%

KRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1364 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kronos Worldwide. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kronos Worldwide. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for KRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kronos Worldwide, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kronos Worldwide.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Kronos Worldwide.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kronos Worldwide. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KRO are equal to 31.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kronos Worldwide operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KRO is equal to 30.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $395 million for Kronos Worldwide - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 114.425 million for Kronos Worldwide is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kronos Worldwide at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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