Intrinsic value of KapStone Paper&Packaging - KS

Previous Close

$22.88

  Intrinsic Value

$14.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

  Value-price divergence*

-59%

Previous close

$22.88

 
Intrinsic value

$14.87

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-59%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.33
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  3,077
  3,225
  3,380
  3,544
  3,716
  3,897
  4,087
  4,287
  4,497
  4,718
  4,950
  5,194
  5,451
  5,720
  6,003
  6,301
  6,613
  6,941
  7,286
  7,648
  8,029
  8,428
  8,848
  9,288
  9,751
  10,237
  10,747
  11,283
  11,846
  12,437
  13,058
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,986
  3,126
  3,274
  3,430
  3,593
  3,765
  3,946
  4,136
  4,336
  4,546
  4,696
  4,928
  5,171
  5,427
  5,696
  5,979
  6,275
  6,587
  6,914
  7,258
  7,620
  7,999
  8,397
  8,816
  9,255
  9,716
  10,201
  10,710
  11,244
  11,805
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,907
  2,986
  3,126
  3,274
  3,430
  3,593
  3,765
  3,946
  4,136
  4,336
  4,546
  4,696
  4,928
  5,171
  5,427
  5,696
  5,979
  6,275
  6,587
  6,914
  7,258
  7,620
  7,999
  8,397
  8,816
  9,255
  9,716
  10,201
  10,710
  11,244
  11,805
Operating income, $m
  170
  239
  254
  269
  286
  303
  322
  341
  361
  382
  404
  498
  523
  549
  576
  605
  635
  666
  699
  734
  770
  809
  849
  891
  936
  982
  1,031
  1,083
  1,137
  1,193
  1,253
EBITDA, $m
  352
  446
  467
  490
  513
  538
  565
  592
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  790
  829
  871
  914
  959
  1,007
  1,057
  1,109
  1,164
  1,222
  1,283
  1,347
  1,414
  1,485
  1,559
  1,637
  1,718
  1,804
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  292
  309
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  569
  596
  624
  654
  685
  717
  752
  788
  825
  865
  907
  951
Tax expense, $m
  42
  50
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
Net income, $m
  86
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  289
  303
  316
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  662
  694

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,256
  3,380
  3,543
  3,715
  3,895
  4,084
  4,284
  4,494
  4,714
  4,946
  5,189
  5,445
  5,714
  5,996
  6,293
  6,605
  6,932
  7,276
  7,638
  8,017
  8,416
  8,835
  9,274
  9,736
  10,221
  10,731
  11,266
  11,828
  12,418
  13,037
  13,688
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,227
  3,380
  3,543
  3,715
  3,895
  4,084
  4,284
  4,494
  4,714
  4,946
  5,189
  5,445
  5,714
  5,996
  6,293
  6,605
  6,932
  7,276
  7,638
  8,017
  8,416
  8,835
  9,274
  9,736
  10,221
  10,731
  11,266
  11,828
  12,418
  13,037
  13,688
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
Average production assets, $m
  1,753
  1,838
  1,927
  2,020
  2,118
  2,221
  2,329
  2,443
  2,563
  2,689
  2,822
  2,961
  3,107
  3,261
  3,422
  3,591
  3,770
  3,957
  4,153
  4,360
  4,576
  4,804
  5,043
  5,294
  5,558
  5,835
  6,126
  6,432
  6,752
  7,089
  7,443
Working capital, $m
  428
  419
  439
  461
  483
  507
  531
  557
  585
  613
  644
  675
  709
  744
  780
  819
  860
  902
  947
  994
  1,044
  1,096
  1,150
  1,207
  1,268
  1,331
  1,397
  1,467
  1,540
  1,617
  1,698
Total debt, $m
  1,485
  1,597
  1,716
  1,841
  1,972
  2,111
  2,256
  2,409
  2,569
  2,738
  2,916
  3,102
  3,298
  3,504
  3,720
  3,948
  4,186
  4,437
  4,701
  4,977
  5,268
  5,573
  5,894
  6,231
  6,584
  6,956
  7,346
  7,755
  8,185
  8,637
  9,111
Total liabilities, $m
  2,352
  2,464
  2,583
  2,708
  2,839
  2,978
  3,123
  3,276
  3,436
  3,605
  3,783
  3,969
  4,165
  4,371
  4,587
  4,815
  5,053
  5,304
  5,568
  5,844
  6,135
  6,440
  6,761
  7,098
  7,451
  7,823
  8,213
  8,622
  9,052
  9,504
  9,978
Total equity, $m
  904
  916
  960
  1,007
  1,056
  1,107
  1,161
  1,218
  1,277
  1,340
  1,406
  1,476
  1,548
  1,625
  1,705
  1,790
  1,879
  1,972
  2,070
  2,173
  2,281
  2,394
  2,513
  2,639
  2,770
  2,908
  3,053
  3,205
  3,365
  3,533
  3,709
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,256
  3,380
  3,543
  3,715
  3,895
  4,085
  4,284
  4,494
  4,713
  4,945
  5,189
  5,445
  5,713
  5,996
  6,292
  6,605
  6,932
  7,276
  7,638
  8,017
  8,416
  8,834
  9,274
  9,737
  10,221
  10,731
  11,266
  11,827
  12,417
  13,037
  13,687
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.643
  1.740
  1.790
  1.830
  1.870
  1.910
  1.940
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.070
  2.100
  2.130
  2.160
  2.180
  2.210
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.310
  2.330
  2.350
  2.360
  2.380
  2.390
  2.410
  2.420
  2.430
  2.440
  2.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  289
  303
  316
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  435
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  662
  694
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  182
  207
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  260
  270
  280
  219
  230
  242
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  374
  392
  412
  432
  454
  476
  500
  525
  551
Funds from operations, $m
  294
  343
  358
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  462
  483
  505
  509
  533
  558
  584
  612
  642
  672
  705
  739
  774
  812
  851
  892
  935
  981
  1,029
  1,079
  1,132
  1,187
  1,245
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  324
  338
  352
  367
  383
  399
  417
  435
  454
  475
  477
  499
  523
  548
  574
  601
  630
  660
  691
  725
  760
  796
  835
  875
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,059
  1,110
  1,165
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -392
  -412
  -432
  -454
  -476
  -500
  -525
New CAPEX, $m
  -129
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -337
  -354
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -152
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -331
  -348
  -365
  -384
  -403
  -423
  -444
  -466
  -490
  -514
  -540
  -567
  -595
  -625
  -656
  -689
  -723
  -760
  -797
  -837
  -879
Free cash flow, $m
  130
  109
  113
  116
  119
  123
  126
  130
  134
  139
  143
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  286
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -67
  112
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  263
  277
  291
  305
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  410
  430
  452
  474
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -69
  112
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  251
  263
  277
  291
  305
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  410
  430
  452
  474
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  62
  221
  232
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  307
  321
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  414
  434
  454
  476
  498
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  660
  691
  725
  760
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  209
  187
  194
  202
  209
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  246
  257
  268
  281
  293
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  462
  484
  507
  532
  557
  584
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  192
  156
  146
  135
  124
  113
  101
  90
  79
  68
  54
  45
  38
  31
  24
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation is a producer of containerboard and the kraft paper in North America. The Company operates through two segments: Paper and Packaging, and Distribution. The Paper and Packaging segment manufactures and sells a range of containerboard, corrugated products and specialty paper for industrial and consumer markets. The Distribution segment, which operates under the Victory and Golden State Container trade names, provides its customers packaging solutions and services and distributes corrugated packaging materials and other specialty packaging products, which include stretch film, void fill, carton sealing tape and other specialty tapes. The Company produces a range of products ranging from basic corrugated shipping containers to specialized packaging. The Company also produces packaging for fresh fruit and vegetables, processed food, beverages, and other industrial and consumer products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  KapStone Paper&Packaging (KS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.7
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 164.3%
Total Debt to Equity 164.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 9.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Payout Ratio 45.3%

KS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3077 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by KapStone Paper&Packaging. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of KapStone Paper&Packaging. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for KS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of KapStone Paper&Packaging, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of KapStone Paper&Packaging.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for KapStone Paper&Packaging.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for KapStone Paper&Packaging. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KS are equal to 57%.

Life of production assets of 13.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in KapStone Paper&Packaging operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KS is equal to 13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $904 million for KapStone Paper&Packaging - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.538 million for KapStone Paper&Packaging is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of KapStone Paper&Packaging at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ KapStone meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-26-17 10:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ KapStone Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ North Charleston Mill Incident   [10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone misses Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 06:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ KapStone Reports First Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-08-17 07:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Financial Engines Inc (FNGN)   [Dec-06-16 03:26PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid KapStone Paper and Packaging Corp. (KS)?   [Dec-02-16 02:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Four Global Resource Plays Poised to Take Off in 2017   [Nov-08-16 01:50PM  at TheStreet]
▶ KapStone Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:20PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of KS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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