Intrinsic value of KapStone Paper&Packaging - KS

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$23.38

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$23.38

 
Intrinsic value

$14.26

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,077
  3,139
  3,211
  3,293
  3,386
  3,489
  3,601
  3,724
  3,857
  4,000
  4,153
  4,317
  4,493
  4,679
  4,877
  5,088
  5,311
  5,547
  5,796
  6,060
  6,338
  6,632
  6,942
  7,269
  7,613
  7,975
  8,357
  8,758
  9,181
  9,626
  10,093
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,908
  2,973
  3,048
  3,132
  3,224
  3,326
  3,437
  3,557
  3,686
  3,825
  3,903
  4,061
  4,230
  4,409
  4,600
  4,801
  5,015
  5,240
  5,479
  5,730
  5,996
  6,276
  6,571
  6,882
  7,210
  7,555
  7,918
  8,300
  8,702
  9,125
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,907
  2,908
  2,973
  3,048
  3,132
  3,224
  3,326
  3,437
  3,557
  3,686
  3,825
  3,903
  4,061
  4,230
  4,409
  4,600
  4,801
  5,015
  5,240
  5,479
  5,730
  5,996
  6,276
  6,571
  6,882
  7,210
  7,555
  7,918
  8,300
  8,702
  9,125
Operating income, $m
  170
  231
  237
  245
  254
  264
  275
  287
  299
  313
  328
  414
  431
  449
  468
  488
  510
  532
  556
  581
  608
  636
  666
  697
  730
  765
  802
  840
  881
  924
  968
EBITDA, $m
  352
  434
  444
  455
  468
  482
  498
  515
  533
  553
  574
  597
  621
  646
  674
  703
  734
  766
  801
  837
  876
  916
  959
  1,004
  1,052
  1,102
  1,155
  1,210
  1,269
  1,330
  1,395
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  179
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  251
  333
  346
  359
  373
  388
  404
  420
  438
  457
  476
  497
  519
  542
  566
  592
  619
  647
  677
  708
  741
Tax expense, $m
  42
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
Net income, $m
  86
  130
  134
  139
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  243
  253
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
  413
  432
  452
  472
  494
  517
  541

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,256
  3,290
  3,366
  3,452
  3,549
  3,657
  3,775
  3,903
  4,043
  4,192
  4,353
  4,525
  4,709
  4,905
  5,113
  5,333
  5,567
  5,814
  6,076
  6,352
  6,644
  6,952
  7,277
  7,619
  7,980
  8,360
  8,760
  9,181
  9,624
  10,090
  10,580
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,227
  3,290
  3,366
  3,452
  3,549
  3,657
  3,775
  3,903
  4,043
  4,192
  4,353
  4,525
  4,709
  4,905
  5,113
  5,333
  5,567
  5,814
  6,076
  6,352
  6,644
  6,952
  7,277
  7,619
  7,980
  8,360
  8,760
  9,181
  9,624
  10,090
  10,580
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
  0.954
Average production assets, $m
  1,753
  1,789
  1,830
  1,877
  1,930
  1,988
  2,053
  2,123
  2,198
  2,280
  2,367
  2,461
  2,561
  2,667
  2,780
  2,900
  3,027
  3,162
  3,304
  3,454
  3,613
  3,780
  3,957
  4,143
  4,339
  4,546
  4,763
  4,992
  5,233
  5,487
  5,753
Working capital, $m
  428
  408
  417
  428
  440
  454
  468
  484
  501
  520
  540
  561
  584
  608
  634
  661
  690
  721
  754
  788
  824
  862
  902
  945
  990
  1,037
  1,086
  1,139
  1,194
  1,251
  1,312
Total debt, $m
  1,485
  1,531
  1,586
  1,650
  1,720
  1,799
  1,885
  1,979
  2,080
  2,189
  2,307
  2,432
  2,566
  2,709
  2,860
  3,021
  3,191
  3,372
  3,562
  3,764
  3,977
  4,201
  4,438
  4,687
  4,950
  5,227
  5,519
  5,826
  6,149
  6,489
  6,846
Total liabilities, $m
  2,352
  2,398
  2,453
  2,517
  2,587
  2,666
  2,752
  2,846
  2,947
  3,056
  3,174
  3,299
  3,433
  3,576
  3,727
  3,888
  4,058
  4,239
  4,429
  4,631
  4,844
  5,068
  5,305
  5,554
  5,817
  6,094
  6,386
  6,693
  7,016
  7,356
  7,713
Total equity, $m
  904
  892
  912
  936
  962
  991
  1,023
  1,058
  1,096
  1,136
  1,180
  1,226
  1,276
  1,329
  1,385
  1,445
  1,509
  1,576
  1,647
  1,721
  1,801
  1,884
  1,972
  2,065
  2,163
  2,265
  2,374
  2,488
  2,608
  2,734
  2,867
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,256
  3,290
  3,365
  3,453
  3,549
  3,657
  3,775
  3,904
  4,043
  4,192
  4,354
  4,525
  4,709
  4,905
  5,112
  5,333
  5,567
  5,815
  6,076
  6,352
  6,645
  6,952
  7,277
  7,619
  7,980
  8,359
  8,760
  9,181
  9,624
  10,090
  10,580
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.643
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.840
  1.870
  1.900
  1.930
  1.960
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.310
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.370
  2.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  130
  134
  139
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  243
  253
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  320
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
  413
  432
  452
  472
  494
  517
  541
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  182
  203
  206
  210
  214
  218
  223
  228
  233
  239
  246
  182
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  307
  321
  337
  353
  370
  388
  406
  426
Funds from operations, $m
  294
  333
  340
  348
  357
  367
  377
  389
  401
  415
  429
  426
  442
  460
  478
  498
  519
  541
  565
  589
  615
  643
  672
  703
  735
  769
  805
  842
  882
  924
  967
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  327
  331
  338
  345
  353
  363
  373
  384
  396
  409
  404
  419
  435
  453
  471
  490
  510
  532
  555
  579
  605
  632
  660
  690
  722
  755
  790
  827
  866
  907
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -130
  -133
  -136
  -139
  -143
  -147
  -152
  -157
  -163
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -234
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -337
  -353
  -370
  -388
  -406
New CAPEX, $m
  -129
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -159
  -167
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -267
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -152
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -395
  -415
  -435
  -457
  -479
  -503
  -528
  -555
  -582
  -611
  -641
  -673
Free cash flow, $m
  130
  162
  157
  155
  153
  152
  151
  151
  151
  152
  153
  135
  137
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -67
  46
  55
  63
  71
  78
  86
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
  340
  357
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -69
  46
  55
  63
  71
  78
  86
  94
  101
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  191
  202
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
  340
  357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  62
  208
  212
  218
  224
  230
  237
  245
  253
  261
  270
  261
  271
  282
  293
  306
  318
  332
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  430
  450
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -59
  -17
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  220
  192
  195
  198
  201
  205
  210
  215
  221
  227
  214
  221
  229
  237
  246
  255
  265
  275
  287
  298
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  202
  160
  146
  132
  119
  106
  94
  82
  71
  61
  47
  39
  32
  26
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation manufactures and sells containerboards, corrugated products, and specialty paper products in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Paper and Packaging, and Distribution. The Paper and Packaging segment offers containerboards consisting of linerboard and corrugated medium to manufacture corrugated containers for packaging products; and corrugated products. It also offers specialty paper products, including kraft paper comprising multiwall paper used to produce bags for agricultural products, pet food, baking products, cement and chemicals, and grocery bags; specialty conversion products, such as wrapping paper products, dunnage bags, and roll wraps; and lightweight paper. In addition, this segment provides saturating kraft paper under the Durasorb trade name for use in construction, electronics manufacturing, and furniture manufacturing industries; and unbleached folding carton board under the Kraftpak trade name to integrated and independent converters in the folding carton industry. The Distribution segment distributes corrugated and other specialty packaging products, which include stretch films, void fills, carton sealing tapes, and other specialty tapes to the packaging services and distribution industry. KapStone Paper and Packaging Corporation was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  KapStone Paper&Packaging (KS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.3
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 164.3%
Total Debt to Equity 164.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Equity 9.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Effective Tax Rate 32.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.8%
Payout Ratio 45.3%

KS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3077 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by KapStone Paper&Packaging. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of KapStone Paper&Packaging. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for KS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of KapStone Paper&Packaging, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of KapStone Paper&Packaging.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for KapStone Paper&Packaging.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for KapStone Paper&Packaging. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KS are equal to 57%.

Life of production assets of 13.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in KapStone Paper&Packaging operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KS is equal to 13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $904 million for KapStone Paper&Packaging - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 97.835 million for KapStone Paper&Packaging is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of KapStone Paper&Packaging at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ KapStone misses 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-08-17 07:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Financial Engines Inc (FNGN)   [Dec-06-16 03:26PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Should You Avoid KapStone Paper and Packaging Corp. (KS)?   [Dec-02-16 02:10PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Four Global Resource Plays Poised to Take Off in 2017   [Nov-08-16 01:50PM  at TheStreet]
▶ KapStone Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:20PM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone Acquires Central Florida Box   [Jul-01-16 11:19AM  PR Newswire]
▶ KapStone Paper And Packaging Announces Cash Dividend   [May-11-16 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of KS Financial statements of KS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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