Intrinsic value of Key Tronic - KTCC

Previous Close

$6.77

  Intrinsic Value

$7.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+4%

  Value-price divergence*

+158%

Previous close

$6.77

 
Intrinsic value

$7.01

 
Up/down potential

+4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+158%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KTCC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.75
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  485
  542
  603
  666
  732
  801
  874
  949
  1,027
  1,109
  1,193
  1,281
  1,373
  1,468
  1,566
  1,669
  1,776
  1,887
  2,003
  2,123
  2,249
  2,380
  2,517
  2,660
  2,809
  2,964
  3,127
  3,297
  3,475
  3,661
  3,856
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  510
  566
  626
  688
  753
  820
  891
  964
  1,041
  1,120
  1,202
  1,287
  1,377
  1,469
  1,565
  1,666
  1,770
  1,879
  1,992
  2,110
  2,232
  2,361
  2,494
  2,634
  2,780
  2,933
  3,092
  3,259
  3,434
  3,616
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  475
  529
  586
  646
  709
  774
  842
  914
  987
  1,065
  1,144
  1,227
  1,313
  1,403
  1,496
  1,593
  1,694
  1,799
  1,909
  2,022
  2,141
  2,264
  2,394
  2,528
  2,668
  2,815
  2,969
  3,129
  3,297
  3,473
  3,656
Operating income, $m
  10
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  116
  123
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  188
  199
EBITDA, $m
  16
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  204
  216
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  11
  14
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  48
  52
  56
  61
  66
  70
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  150
  159
Tax expense, $m
  1
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
Net income, $m
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  236
  263
  292
  323
  355
  388
  423
  460
  498
  537
  578
  621
  665
  711
  759
  809
  860
  914
  970
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,289
  1,361
  1,436
  1,515
  1,597
  1,684
  1,774
  1,868
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  235
  263
  292
  323
  355
  388
  423
  460
  498
  537
  578
  621
  665
  711
  759
  809
  860
  914
  970
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,289
  1,361
  1,436
  1,515
  1,597
  1,684
  1,774
  1,868
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.064
  2.061
  2.065
  2.062
  2.062
  2.064
  2.066
  2.063
  2.062
  2.065
  2.064
  2.063
  2.065
  2.065
  2.063
  2.063
  2.065
  2.065
  2.065
  2.063
  2.063
  2.064
  2.065
  2.064
  2.064
  2.064
  2.064
  2.064
  2.064
  2.064
  2.064
Average production assets, $m
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
Working capital, $m
  97
  113
  125
  138
  152
  167
  182
  197
  214
  231
  248
  267
  286
  305
  326
  347
  369
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  524
  553
  584
  617
  650
  686
  723
  761
  802
Total debt, $m
  44
  58
  74
  91
  109
  127
  146
  166
  187
  209
  231
  255
  279
  304
  331
  358
  386
  416
  447
  479
  512
  547
  583
  621
  661
  702
  746
  791
  838
  888
  940
Total liabilities, $m
  130
  144
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  273
  295
  317
  341
  365
  390
  417
  444
  472
  502
  533
  565
  598
  633
  669
  707
  747
  788
  832
  877
  924
  974
  1,026
Total equity, $m
  106
  118
  132
  145
  160
  175
  191
  207
  224
  242
  261
  280
  300
  321
  342
  365
  388
  412
  438
  464
  491
  520
  550
  581
  614
  648
  683
  720
  759
  800
  843
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  236
  262
  292
  322
  355
  388
  423
  459
  497
  537
  578
  621
  665
  711
  759
  809
  860
  914
  971
  1,029
  1,089
  1,153
  1,219
  1,288
  1,361
  1,436
  1,515
  1,597
  1,683
  1,774
  1,869
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.415
  0.490
  0.560
  0.630
  0.680
  0.730
  0.770
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.447
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451
  0.451

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Funds from operations, $m
  -3
  11
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  37
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -1
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  10
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  59
  64
  68
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  4
  3
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  15
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  59
  64
  68
  72
  77
Discount rate, %
 
  5.80
  6.09
  6.39
  6.71
  7.05
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.48
  12.06
  12.66
  13.29
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.81
  18.71
  19.64
  20.62
  21.65
  22.74
  23.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.5
  91.1
  89.3
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9
  88.9

Key Tronic Corporation, doing business as KeyTronicEMS Co., provides electronic manufacturing services (EMS) to original equipment manufacturers in the United States and internationally. The company offers integrated electronic and mechanical engineering, assembly, sourcing and procurement, logistics, and new product testing services. Its services include product design; surface mount technologies and pin through hole capability for printed circuit board assembly; tool making; precision plastic molding; sheet metal fabrication; liquid injection molding; complex assembly; automated tape winding; prototype design; and full product assembly services. The company also manufactures keyboards and other input devices. It markets its products and services primarily through field sales people and distributors. The company was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Spokane Valley, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Key Tronic (KTCC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 44.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 34.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 36.8%
Total Debt to Equity 41.5%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
EBITDA Margin 3.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Operating Margin 2.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 12.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

KTCC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KTCC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $485 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Key Tronic. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Key Tronic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KTCC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.8%, whose default value for KTCC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Key Tronic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Key Tronic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KTCC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KTCC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Key Tronic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Key Tronic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KTCC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KTCC are equal to 4.2%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Key Tronic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KTCC is equal to 20.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $106 million for Key Tronic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10.731 million for Key Tronic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Key Tronic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Key Tronic posts 4Q profit   [Aug-02-17 12:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 3Q profit   [May-02-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Third Quarter Reporting Date   [Apr-13-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : April 11, 2017   [Apr-11-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 2Q profit   [Jan-31-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Second Quarter Reporting Date   [Jan-10-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : December 9, 2016   [Dec-09-16 01:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : November 4, 2016   [Nov-04-16 12:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic Announces First Quarter Reporting Date   [Oct-18-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : October 12, 2016   [Oct-12-16 09:54AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : August 18, 2016   [Aug-18-16 06:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 4Q profit   [Jul-26-16 05:36PM  AP]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Third Quarter Reporting Date   [Apr-12-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ KEY TRONIc announces second quarter results   [Jan-26-16 04:44PM  at noodls]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Second Quarter Reporting Date   [Jan-12-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Key Tronic posts 1Q profit   [Oct-27  05:03PM  AP]
▶ Key Tronic Announces First Quarter Reporting Date   [Oct-12  09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Key Tronic posts 4Q profit   [Aug-18  04:18PM  AP]
Stock chart of KTCC Financial statements of KTCC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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