Intrinsic value of Key Tronic - KTCC

Previous Close

$8.23

  Intrinsic Value

$3.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-56%

Previous close

$8.23

 
Intrinsic value

$3.63

 
Up/down potential

-56%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of KTCC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  468
  477
  488
  501
  515
  531
  548
  566
  587
  608
  632
  657
  683
  712
  742
  774
  808
  844
  882
  922
  964
  1,009
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,213
  1,271
  1,332
  1,396
  1,464
  1,535
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  453
  463
  475
  489
  503
  520
  537
  556
  577
  599
  621
  646
  673
  702
  732
  764
  798
  834
  872
  912
  954
  999
  1,046
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,260
  1,321
  1,385
  1,452
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  458
  468
  479
  491
  505
  520
  537
  554
  574
  595
  618
  640
  665
  693
  722
  753
  785
  820
  856
  895
  935
  978
  1,023
  1,071
  1,120
  1,173
  1,228
  1,287
  1,349
  1,413
  1,481
Operating income, $m
  10
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
EBITDA, $m
  17
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
Tax expense, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Net income, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  233
  238
  243
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  233
  238
  243
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  314
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  526
  550
  576
  604
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.009
  2.004
  2.008
  2.012
  2.012
  2.011
  2.007
  2.007
  2.010
  2.007
  2.013
  2.009
  2.009
  2.011
  2.011
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.009
  2.009
  2.008
  2.010
  2.008
  2.011
  2.010
  2.008
  2.008
  2.009
  2.009
  2.008
  2.009
Average production assets, $m
  35
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
Working capital, $m
  100
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
Total debt, $m
  43
  46
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  202
  215
  228
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
Total liabilities, $m
  116
  119
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  251
  262
  275
  288
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
Total equity, $m
  117
  119
  122
  125
  128
  132
  137
  141
  146
  152
  158
  164
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  240
  252
  263
  276
  289
  302
  317
  332
  348
  365
  383
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  233
  238
  243
  249
  256
  264
  273
  282
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  479
  503
  525
  551
  577
  603
  633
  663
  695
  729
  764
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.368
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.502
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501
  0.501

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Funds from operations, $m
  5
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Key Tronic Corporation, doing business as KeyTronicEMS Co., is engaged in contract manufacturing for a range of products. The Company provides electronic manufacturing services (EMS) and solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of a range of products. The Company provides engineering services, procurement and distribution, materials management, manufacturing and assembly services, in-house testing, and customer service. The Company provides EMS services, such as product design, surface mount technologies (SMT) and pin through hole capability for printed circuit board assembly (PCBA), tool making, precision plastic molding, sheet metal fabrication, liquid injection molding, complex assembly, automated tape winding, prototype design and full product assembly. The Company's manufacturing operations are located in Oakdale, Minnesota; Fayetteville, Arkansas; Corinth, Mississippi; Harrodsburg, Kentucky, and foreign manufacturing operations in Juarez, Mexico, and Shanghai, China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Key Tronic (KTCC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.8
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 31.6%
Total Debt to Equity 36.8%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 5.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
EBITDA Margin 3.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Operating Margin 2.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 14.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

KTCC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KTCC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $468 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Key Tronic. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Key Tronic. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KTCC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for KTCC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Key Tronic, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Key Tronic.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KTCC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $15 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KTCC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Key Tronic.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Key Tronic. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KTCC stock is equal to 0.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KTCC are equal to 9.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Key Tronic operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KTCC is equal to 10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $117 million for Key Tronic - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11 million for Key Tronic is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Key Tronic at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Key Tronic: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [05:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Third Quarter Reporting Date   [Apr-16-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Key Tronic reports 2Q loss   [Jan-30-18 05:43PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Second Quarter Reporting Date   [Jan-16-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : December 8, 2017   [Dec-08-17 01:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 1Q profit   [Oct-31-17 06:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Corporation Responds to Cemtrex Release   [Oct-26-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : October 25, 2017   [Oct-25-17 10:04AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic Announces First Quarter Reporting Date   [Oct-18-17 09:01AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : October 11, 2017   [Oct-11-17 11:46AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic Corporation Comments on Cemtrex Release   [Sep-15-17 02:46PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Key Tronic posts 4Q profit   [Aug-02-17 12:45AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 3Q profit   [May-02-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Third Quarter Reporting Date   [Apr-13-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : April 11, 2017   [Apr-11-17 02:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 2Q profit   [Jan-31-17 05:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Second Quarter Reporting Date   [Jan-10-17 09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : December 9, 2016   [Dec-09-16 01:36PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : November 4, 2016   [Nov-04-16 12:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic Announces First Quarter Reporting Date   [Oct-18-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : October 12, 2016   [Oct-12-16 09:54AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Key Tronic Corp. : August 18, 2016   [Aug-18-16 06:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Key Tronic posts 4Q profit   [Jul-26-16 05:36PM  AP]
▶ Key Tronic Announces Third Quarter Reporting Date   [Apr-12-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of KTCC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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