Intrinsic value of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings - KW

Previous Close

$19.10

  Intrinsic Value

$10.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

  Value-price divergence*

-75%

Previous close

$19.10

 
Intrinsic value

$10.30

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-75%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as KW.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.39
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  703
  717
  734
  752
  774
  797
  823
  851
  881
  914
  949
  986
  1,026
  1,069
  1,114
  1,162
  1,213
  1,267
  1,324
  1,385
  1,448
  1,515
  1,586
  1,661
  1,739
  1,822
  1,909
  2,001
  2,098
  2,199
  2,306
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  483
  494
  506
  520
  536
  553
  572
  592
  614
  638
  660
  687
  716
  746
  778
  812
  849
  887
  927
  970
  1,015
  1,062
  1,112
  1,165
  1,220
  1,278
  1,340
  1,405
  1,473
  1,544
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  559
  483
  494
  506
  520
  536
  553
  572
  592
  614
  638
  660
  687
  716
  746
  778
  812
  849
  887
  927
  970
  1,015
  1,062
  1,112
  1,165
  1,220
  1,278
  1,340
  1,405
  1,473
  1,544
Operating income, $m
  145
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  279
  289
  300
  311
  326
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  438
  457
  478
  501
  524
  549
  575
  602
  631
  661
  693
  727
  762
EBITDA, $m
  343
  250
  256
  262
  270
  278
  287
  297
  307
  319
  331
  344
  358
  373
  389
  405
  423
  442
  462
  483
  505
  528
  553
  579
  607
  635
  666
  698
  731
  767
  804
Interest expense (income), $m
  171
  181
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  307
  323
  340
  358
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
  487
  513
  540
  569
  599
  631
  664
  700
Earnings before tax, $m
  91
  53
  55
  55
  56
  56
  56
  57
  57
  57
  58
  60
  60
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  61
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
  62
Tax expense, $m
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
Net income, $m
  6
  39
  40
  40
  41
  41
  41
  41
  42
  42
  42
  44
  44
  44
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  260
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,659
  7,794
  7,973
  8,178
  8,408
  8,663
  8,943
  9,248
  9,577
  9,932
  10,314
  10,721
  11,157
  11,620
  12,112
  12,635
  13,188
  13,774
  14,394
  15,049
  15,741
  16,470
  17,240
  18,051
  18,905
  19,805
  20,753
  21,750
  22,800
  23,904
  25,066
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,399
  7,794
  7,973
  8,178
  8,408
  8,663
  8,943
  9,248
  9,577
  9,932
  10,314
  10,721
  11,157
  11,620
  12,112
  12,635
  13,188
  13,774
  14,394
  15,049
  15,741
  16,470
  17,240
  18,051
  18,905
  19,805
  20,753
  21,750
  22,800
  23,904
  25,066
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.095
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
  0.092
Average production assets, $m
  129
  131
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  402
  422
Working capital, $m
  0
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
Total debt, $m
  4,893
  5,008
  5,163
  5,340
  5,538
  5,758
  6,000
  6,263
  6,547
  6,854
  7,183
  7,535
  7,910
  8,310
  8,735
  9,186
  9,664
  10,169
  10,704
  11,269
  11,866
  12,496
  13,160
  13,860
  14,597
  15,374
  16,192
  17,053
  17,958
  18,911
  19,914
Total liabilities, $m
  6,611
  6,726
  6,881
  7,058
  7,256
  7,476
  7,718
  7,981
  8,265
  8,572
  8,901
  9,253
  9,628
  10,028
  10,453
  10,904
  11,382
  11,887
  12,422
  12,987
  13,584
  14,214
  14,878
  15,578
  16,315
  17,092
  17,910
  18,771
  19,676
  20,629
  21,632
Total equity, $m
  1,048
  1,068
  1,092
  1,120
  1,152
  1,187
  1,225
  1,267
  1,312
  1,361
  1,413
  1,469
  1,528
  1,592
  1,659
  1,731
  1,807
  1,887
  1,972
  2,062
  2,156
  2,256
  2,362
  2,473
  2,590
  2,713
  2,843
  2,980
  3,124
  3,275
  3,434
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,659
  7,794
  7,973
  8,178
  8,408
  8,663
  8,943
  9,248
  9,577
  9,933
  10,314
  10,722
  11,156
  11,620
  12,112
  12,635
  13,189
  13,774
  14,394
  15,049
  15,740
  16,470
  17,240
  18,051
  18,905
  19,805
  20,753
  21,751
  22,800
  23,904
  25,066
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.669
  4.690
  4.730
  4.770
  4.810
  4.850
  4.900
  4.940
  4.990
  5.040
  5.080
  5.130
  5.180
  5.220
  5.260
  5.310
  5.350
  5.390
  5.430
  5.470
  5.500
  5.540
  5.570
  5.600
  5.640
  5.670
  5.700
  5.720
  5.750
  5.770
  5.800
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.107
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137
  0.137

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  6
  39
  40
  40
  41
  41
  41
  41
  42
  42
  42
  44
  44
  44
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  198
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Funds from operations, $m
  50
  55
  56
  56
  57
  58
  59
  59
  60
  61
  62
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  73
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
Change in working capital, $m
  -53
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from operations, $m
  103
  56
  57
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  71
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  -950
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -287
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
Free cash flow, $m
  -184
  40
  41
  41
  42
  42
  42
  42
  42
  42
  42
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  41
  40
  40
  40
  40
  40
  39
  39
  39
  39
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  832
  115
  155
  177
  199
  220
  241
  263
  285
  307
  329
  352
  376
  400
  425
  451
  478
  506
  535
  565
  597
  630
  664
  700
  737
  777
  818
  861
  906
  953
  1,002
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  7
  10
  12
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  106
  114
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  485
  115
  155
  177
  199
  220
  241
  263
  289
  314
  339
  364
  392
  419
  448
  478
  509
  542
  575
  610
  647
  685
  724
  766
  809
  855
  903
  952
  1,004
  1,059
  1,116
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  219
  156
  196
  218
  240
  262
  283
  305
  330
  355
  381
  405
  433
  461
  489
  519
  550
  583
  616
  651
  687
  725
  765
  806
  849
  895
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,098
  1,155
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  86
  -20
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  136
  171
  190
  209
  227
  245
  263
  285
  307
  329
  350
  373
  397
  422
  448
  475
  502
  531
  561
  593
  625
  659
  695
  732
  771
  812
  855
  900
  946
  995
Discount rate, %
 
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  121
  134
  129
  121
  111
  100
  88
  77
  66
  55
  45
  36
  28
  21
  16
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.2
  98.8
  98.3
  97.8
  97.1
  96.3
  95.5
  94.6
  93.6
  92.6
  91.6
  90.5
  89.3
  88.1
  86.9
  85.7
  84.4
  83.1
  81.8
  80.5
  79.2

Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. operates as a real estate investment company. The company owns, operates, and invests in real estate both on its own and through its investment management platform. It focuses on multifamily and commercial properties located in the Western United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Italy, and Japan. The company owns interest in approximately 39 million square feet of property, including 24,371 multifamily rental units. It also provides real estate services primarily to financial services clients. Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Beverly Hills, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (KW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 368.4
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 41.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 466.9%
Total Debt to Equity 466.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Return On Equity 0.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 96.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 97%
EBITDA Margin 65.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.9%
Operating Margin 20.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Payout Ratio 1083.3%

KW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $703 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Kennedy-Wilson Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for KW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Kennedy-Wilson Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Kennedy-Wilson Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KW are equal to 18.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Kennedy-Wilson Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KW is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1048 million for Kennedy-Wilson Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 114.286 million for Kennedy-Wilson Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Kennedy-Wilson Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Kennedy-Wilson posts 2Q profit   [12:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Kennedy Wilson Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Kennedy Wilson to Announce Second Quarter 2017 Earnings   [Jul-07-17 06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Kennedy-Wilson posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kennedy Wilson to Announce First Quarter 2017 Earnings   [Apr-07-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Company Profile for Kennedy Wilson   [Mar-01-17 08:55PM  Business Wire]
▶ Kennedy-Wilson posts 4Q profit   [Feb-23-17 07:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc (KW)?   [Dec-11-16 08:35AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Kennedy Wilson to Announce Third Quarter 2016 Earnings   [Oct-04-16 06:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ Canadian Billionaire Prem Watsa Still Likes Blackberry, IBM   [Sep-17-16 03:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of KW Financial statements of KW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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