Intrinsic value of Quaker Chemical - KWR

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$142.99

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$142.99

 
Intrinsic value

$57.77

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.22
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  747
  780
  815
  851
  890
  931
  975
  1,020
  1,068
  1,119
  1,172
  1,228
  1,288
  1,350
  1,415
  1,484
  1,556
  1,632
  1,712
  1,796
  1,885
  1,978
  2,075
  2,178
  2,286
  2,399
  2,518
  2,643
  2,774
  2,912
  3,056
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  703
  734
  767
  801
  838
  877
  917
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,095
  1,147
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,387
  1,455
  1,526
  1,601
  1,680
  1,762
  1,849
  1,941
  2,037
  2,138
  2,244
  2,355
  2,472
  2,595
  2,724
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  664
  703
  734
  767
  801
  838
  877
  917
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,095
  1,147
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,387
  1,455
  1,526
  1,601
  1,680
  1,762
  1,849
  1,941
  2,037
  2,138
  2,244
  2,355
  2,472
  2,595
  2,724
Operating income, $m
  83
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  134
  140
  147
  154
  162
  169
  178
  186
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
  288
  302
  317
  333
EBITDA, $m
  103
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
  369
  387
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
Tax expense, $m
  23
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  81
Net income, $m
  61
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  692
  629
  658
  687
  719
  752
  787
  823
  862
  903
  946
  991
  1,039
  1,089
  1,142
  1,198
  1,256
  1,318
  1,382
  1,450
  1,521
  1,596
  1,675
  1,758
  1,845
  1,936
  2,032
  2,133
  2,239
  2,350
  2,467
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  603
  629
  658
  687
  719
  752
  787
  823
  862
  903
  946
  991
  1,039
  1,089
  1,142
  1,198
  1,256
  1,318
  1,382
  1,450
  1,521
  1,596
  1,675
  1,758
  1,845
  1,936
  2,032
  2,133
  2,239
  2,350
  2,467
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.239
  1.240
  1.239
  1.239
  1.238
  1.238
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.240
  1.240
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.238
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
  1.239
Average production assets, $m
  160
  167
  174
  182
  191
  199
  209
  218
  229
  239
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
  333
  349
  366
  384
  403
  423
  444
  466
  489
  513
  539
  566
  594
  623
  654
Working capital, $m
  249
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  220
  231
  242
  253
  265
  278
  292
  306
  321
  336
  353
  370
  388
  407
  427
  448
  470
  494
  518
  544
  571
  599
  629
  660
Total debt, $m
  66
  78
  91
  105
  120
  136
  153
  171
  189
  209
  229
  251
  274
  298
  323
  349
  377
  407
  438
  470
  504
  540
  578
  617
  659
  702
  748
  796
  847
  900
  956
Total liabilities, $m
  289
  301
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  630
  661
  693
  727
  763
  801
  840
  882
  925
  971
  1,019
  1,070
  1,123
  1,179
Total equity, $m
  403
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  471
  494
  518
  542
  569
  596
  625
  656
  688
  721
  757
  794
  833
  874
  918
  963
  1,011
  1,061
  1,113
  1,169
  1,227
  1,288
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  692
  630
  657
  687
  718
  751
  787
  824
  862
  903
  946
  992
  1,039
  1,090
  1,142
  1,197
  1,256
  1,318
  1,382
  1,450
  1,521
  1,596
  1,675
  1,758
  1,845
  1,936
  2,032
  2,132
  2,239
  2,350
  2,467
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.164
  0.240
  0.270
  0.290
  0.320
  0.350
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.521
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522
  0.522

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
  217
  227
  238
  250
  262
  274
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  211
  221
  232
  243
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -83
Free cash flow, $m
  50
  48
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  88
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  135
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  67
  69
  72
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  130
  45
  44
  44
  42
  41
  40
  38
  37
  35
  32
  30
  28
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  14
  12
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Quaker Chemical Corporation develops, produces, and markets various formulated chemical specialty products for various heavy industrial and manufacturing applications worldwide. Its products include rolling lubricants used by manufacturers of steel in the hot and cold rolling of steel, and by manufacturers of aluminum in the hot rolling of aluminum; corrosion preventives to protect metal during manufacture, storage, and shipment; and metal finishing compounds to prepare metal surfaces for special treatments, such as galvanizing and tin plating, as well as to prepare metal for further processing. The company also offers machining and grinding compounds for use in cutting, shaping, and grinding metal parts; forming compounds to facilitate the drawing and extrusion of metal products; bio-lubricants for forestry and construction industries; hydraulic fluids for steel, metalworking, and other customers to operate hydraulic equipment; and chemical milling maskants for the aerospace industry. In addition, it provides temporary and permanent coatings for metal and concrete products; construction products, including flexible sealants and protective coatings for various applications; specialty greases; die casting lubricants; and chemical management services. The company serves various industries, such as steel, aluminum, automotive, mining, aerospace, tube and pipe, cans, and other industries. It markets and sells its products directly, as well as through distributors and agents. The company was formerly known as Quaker Chemical Products Corporation and changed its name to Quaker Chemical Corporation in August 1962. Quaker Chemical Corporation was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quaker Chemical (KWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.1
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 89
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 16.1%
Total Debt to Equity 16.4%
Interest Coverage 43
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 15.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Payout Ratio 29.5%

KWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $747 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quaker Chemical. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Quaker Chemical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quaker Chemical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quaker Chemical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Quaker Chemical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quaker Chemical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KWR are equal to 21.4%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quaker Chemical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KWR is equal to 21.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $403 million for Quaker Chemical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.292 million for Quaker Chemical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quaker Chemical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Quaker Chemical beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-28-17 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-27-17 03:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Quaker Chemical Corp (KWR) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:33PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-16-16 03:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Small Cap Stocks Which Could be Worth Snapping Up   [Oct-21-16 02:25PM  at TheStreet]
▶ New Smart Polymer Technology in Die Release Agents   [Sep-22-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-21-16 03:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Product Solutions to Suppress Dust and Reduce Downtime   [Jul-28-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces 8% Increase in Cash Dividend   [May-04-16 03:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical meets 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-16 07:11PM  AP]
▶ Webcast-Teleconference for Quaker Chemical Corporation   [Apr-11-16 03:24PM  at Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of KWR Financial statements of KWR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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