Intrinsic value of Quaker Chemical - KWR

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$143.28

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$143.28

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of KWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.22
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  747
  753
  770
  790
  812
  837
  864
  893
  925
  959
  996
  1,035
  1,078
  1,122
  1,170
  1,220
  1,274
  1,330
  1,390
  1,453
  1,520
  1,591
  1,665
  1,743
  1,826
  1,913
  2,004
  2,101
  2,202
  2,309
  2,421
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  618
  632
  648
  666
  686
  708
  732
  757
  785
  815
  839
  873
  909
  948
  989
  1,032
  1,078
  1,126
  1,178
  1,232
  1,289
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,550
  1,624
  1,702
  1,784
  1,871
  1,962
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
Total operating expenses, $m
  664
  682
  697
  715
  734
  756
  780
  806
  833
  862
  894
  920
  956
  994
  1,036
  1,079
  1,124
  1,172
  1,223
  1,277
  1,334
  1,393
  1,456
  1,522
  1,592
  1,665
  1,742
  1,823
  1,908
  1,998
  2,092
Operating income, $m
  83
  71
  73
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  115
  121
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  278
  294
  311
  329
EBITDA, $m
  103
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  191
  202
  213
  225
  238
  251
  266
  281
  297
  314
  332
  351
  371
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
Earnings before tax, $m
  84
  69
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  96
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  156
  164
  174
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  271
  287
  303
Tax expense, $m
  23
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  25
  26
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
Net income, $m
  61
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  67
  70
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  222

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  692
  613
  627
  643
  661
  681
  703
  727
  753
  781
  811
  843
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,037
  1,083
  1,132
  1,184
  1,238
  1,295
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,558
  1,632
  1,711
  1,793
  1,880
  1,971
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  603
  613
  627
  643
  661
  681
  703
  727
  753
  781
  811
  843
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,037
  1,083
  1,132
  1,184
  1,238
  1,295
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,558
  1,632
  1,711
  1,793
  1,880
  1,971
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.239
  1.228
  1.228
  1.229
  1.228
  1.229
  1.229
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.229
  1.228
  1.228
  1.227
  1.229
  1.228
  1.228
  1.227
  1.228
  1.229
  1.228
  1.227
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
  1.228
Average production assets, $m
  160
  161
  165
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  198
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  409
  429
  450
  471
  494
  518
Working capital, $m
  249
  164
  168
  172
  177
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
  217
  226
  235
  245
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  528
Total debt, $m
  66
  87
  94
  102
  112
  122
  133
  145
  159
  173
  188
  205
  222
  241
  261
  282
  304
  328
  353
  379
  407
  436
  467
  500
  534
  571
  609
  649
  691
  736
  782
Total liabilities, $m
  289
  314
  321
  329
  339
  349
  360
  372
  386
  400
  415
  432
  449
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
  798
  836
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
Total equity, $m
  403
  299
  306
  314
  323
  333
  343
  355
  368
  381
  396
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  529
  552
  578
  604
  632
  662
  693
  726
  760
  797
  835
  875
  917
  962
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  692
  613
  627
  643
  662
  682
  703
  727
  754
  781
  811
  843
  877
  914
  953
  994
  1,037
  1,084
  1,132
  1,184
  1,238
  1,295
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,558
  1,633
  1,711
  1,793
  1,880
  1,971
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.164
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.521
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488
  0.488

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  50
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  67
  70
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  222
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Funds from operations, $m
  64
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  180
  190
  200
  212
  223
  236
  249
  263
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  74
  70
  69
  70
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  125
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  192
  202
  214
  226
  239
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
Free cash flow, $m
  50
  54
  52
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  175
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -15
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  26
  60
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  78
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  168
  177
  187
  198
  210
  222
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -30
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  80
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  134
  52
  53
  53
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  128
  48
  46
  44
  42
  40
  39
  37
  35
  33
  30
  28
  26
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Quaker Chemical Corporation develops, produces, and markets various formulated chemical specialty products for various heavy industrial and manufacturing applications worldwide. Its products include rolling lubricants used by manufacturers of steel in the hot and cold rolling of steel, and by manufacturers of aluminum in the hot rolling of aluminum; corrosion preventives to protect metal during manufacture, storage, and shipment; and metal finishing compounds to prepare metal surfaces for special treatments, such as galvanizing and tin plating, as well as to prepare metal for further processing. The company also offers machining and grinding compounds for use in cutting, shaping, and grinding metal parts; forming compounds to facilitate the drawing and extrusion of metal products; bio-lubricants for forestry and construction industries; hydraulic fluids for steel, metalworking, and other customers to operate hydraulic equipment; and chemical milling maskants for the aerospace industry. In addition, it provides temporary and permanent coatings for metal and concrete products; construction products, including flexible sealants and protective coatings for various applications; specialty greases; die casting lubricants; and chemical management services. The company serves various industries, such as steel, aluminum, automotive, mining, aerospace, tube and pipe, cans, and other industries. It markets and sells its products directly, as well as through distributors and agents. The company was formerly known as Quaker Chemical Products Corporation and changed its name to Quaker Chemical Corporation in August 1962. Quaker Chemical Corporation was founded in 1918 and is headquartered in Conshohocken, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Quaker Chemical (KWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 31.2
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 89
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 16.1%
Total Debt to Equity 16.4%
Interest Coverage 43
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 13.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Return On Equity 15.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Payout Ratio 29.5%

KWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the KWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $738 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Quaker Chemical. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Quaker Chemical. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our KWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for KWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Quaker Chemical, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Quaker Chemical.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of KWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $62 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for KWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Quaker Chemical.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Quaker Chemical. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the KWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for KWR are equal to 21.4%.

Life of production assets of 12.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Quaker Chemical operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for KWR is equal to 21.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $373 million for Quaker Chemical - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.001 million for Quaker Chemical is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Quaker Chemical at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Quaker Chemical Announces 3% Increase In Cash Dividend   [May-10-17 02:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Sees Composite Rating Improve To 96   [May-03-17 11:24AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Quaker Chemical beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-01-17 05:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Quaker Chemical beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-28-17 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-27-17 03:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Quaker Chemical Corp (KWR) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:33PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-16-16 03:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Small Cap Stocks Which Could be Worth Snapping Up   [Oct-21-16 02:25PM  at TheStreet]
▶ New Smart Polymer Technology in Die Release Agents   [Sep-22-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Sep-21-16 03:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Product Solutions to Suppress Dust and Reduce Downtime   [Jul-28-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical Announces 8% Increase in Cash Dividend   [May-04-16 03:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quaker Chemical meets 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-16 07:11PM  AP]
▶ Webcast-Teleconference for Quaker Chemical Corporation   [Apr-11-16 03:24PM  at Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of KWR Financial statements of KWR Annual reports of KWR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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