Intrinsic value of Multi-Color - LABL

Previous Close

$81.65

  Intrinsic Value

$83.24

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+2%

Previous close

$81.65

 
Intrinsic value

$83.24

 
Up/down potential

+2%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of LABL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.97
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  923
  1,018
  1,118
  1,221
  1,330
  1,442
  1,560
  1,682
  1,808
  1,940
  2,077
  2,219
  2,367
  2,521
  2,681
  2,847
  3,021
  3,201
  3,390
  3,586
  3,791
  4,005
  4,228
  4,462
  4,706
  4,961
  5,228
  5,507
  5,800
  6,106
  6,426
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  700
  765
  832
  902
  975
  1,051
  1,130
  1,212
  1,297
  1,385
  1,436
  1,532
  1,631
  1,735
  1,843
  1,955
  2,072
  2,194
  2,321
  2,454
  2,592
  2,737
  2,888
  3,046
  3,211
  3,384
  3,565
  3,754
  3,952
  4,159
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  181
  186
  191
  195
  200
  205
  210
  216
  221
  227
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
Total operating expenses, $m
  812
  881
  951
  1,023
  1,097
  1,175
  1,256
  1,340
  1,428
  1,518
  1,612
  1,668
  1,770
  1,875
  1,985
  2,099
  2,218
  2,341
  2,470
  2,604
  2,744
  2,889
  3,042
  3,200
  3,366
  3,539
  3,720
  3,910
  4,107
  4,314
  4,530
Operating income, $m
  111
  136
  167
  199
  232
  267
  304
  341
  381
  422
  465
  550
  597
  645
  695
  748
  803
  860
  920
  982
  1,047
  1,115
  1,187
  1,262
  1,340
  1,422
  1,508
  1,598
  1,692
  1,792
  1,896
EBITDA, $m
  158
  203
  236
  271
  307
  345
  384
  425
  467
  512
  558
  606
  656
  708
  762
  819
  878
  940
  1,004
  1,072
  1,142
  1,215
  1,292
  1,373
  1,457
  1,546
  1,638
  1,735
  1,837
  1,944
  2,056
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  96
  103
  109
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  113
  140
  168
  198
  228
  260
  294
  329
  365
  403
  483
  524
  567
  612
  658
  707
  757
  810
  865
  923
  984
  1,047
  1,113
  1,183
  1,256
  1,332
  1,412
  1,496
  1,584
  1,677
Tax expense, $m
  27
  30
  38
  45
  53
  62
  70
  79
  89
  99
  109
  131
  142
  153
  165
  178
  191
  204
  219
  234
  249
  266
  283
  301
  319
  339
  360
  381
  404
  428
  453
Net income, $m
  61
  82
  102
  123
  144
  167
  190
  215
  240
  266
  294
  353
  383
  414
  447
  480
  516
  553
  591
  632
  674
  718
  764
  813
  863
  917
  972
  1,031
  1,092
  1,156
  1,224

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,092
  1,177
  1,292
  1,412
  1,537
  1,667
  1,803
  1,944
  2,090
  2,243
  2,401
  2,565
  2,736
  2,914
  3,099
  3,291
  3,492
  3,701
  3,919
  4,146
  4,383
  4,630
  4,888
  5,158
  5,440
  5,735
  6,044
  6,367
  6,705
  7,059
  7,429
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,067
  1,177
  1,292
  1,412
  1,537
  1,667
  1,803
  1,944
  2,090
  2,243
  2,401
  2,565
  2,736
  2,914
  3,099
  3,291
  3,492
  3,701
  3,919
  4,146
  4,383
  4,630
  4,888
  5,158
  5,440
  5,735
  6,044
  6,367
  6,705
  7,059
  7,429
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
Average production assets, $m
  403
  445
  488
  534
  581
  630
  682
  735
  790
  848
  908
  970
  1,034
  1,101
  1,171
  1,244
  1,320
  1,399
  1,481
  1,567
  1,657
  1,750
  1,848
  1,950
  2,057
  2,168
  2,285
  2,407
  2,534
  2,668
  2,808
Working capital, $m
  110
  96
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  209
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  301
  319
  337
  356
  376
  397
  419
  442
  466
  491
  518
  545
  574
  604
Total debt, $m
  482
  553
  629
  709
  793
  880
  970
  1,064
  1,161
  1,263
  1,368
  1,477
  1,591
  1,710
  1,833
  1,961
  2,095
  2,234
  2,379
  2,530
  2,688
  2,853
  3,025
  3,204
  3,392
  3,589
  3,794
  4,009
  4,234
  4,470
  4,717
Total liabilities, $m
  713
  784
  860
  940
  1,024
  1,111
  1,201
  1,295
  1,392
  1,494
  1,599
  1,708
  1,822
  1,941
  2,064
  2,192
  2,326
  2,465
  2,610
  2,761
  2,919
  3,084
  3,256
  3,435
  3,623
  3,820
  4,025
  4,240
  4,465
  4,701
  4,948
Total equity, $m
  379
  393
  432
  472
  513
  557
  602
  649
  698
  749
  802
  857
  914
  973
  1,035
  1,099
  1,166
  1,236
  1,309
  1,385
  1,464
  1,546
  1,633
  1,723
  1,817
  1,916
  2,019
  2,127
  2,239
  2,358
  2,481
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,092
  1,177
  1,292
  1,412
  1,537
  1,668
  1,803
  1,944
  2,090
  2,243
  2,401
  2,565
  2,736
  2,914
  3,099
  3,291
  3,492
  3,701
  3,919
  4,146
  4,383
  4,630
  4,889
  5,158
  5,440
  5,736
  6,044
  6,367
  6,704
  7,059
  7,429
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.272
  1.410
  1.460
  1.500
  1.540
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.740
  1.760
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
  1.900
  1.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.332
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  82
  102
  123
  144
  167
  190
  215
  240
  266
  294
  353
  383
  414
  447
  480
  516
  553
  591
  632
  674
  718
  764
  813
  863
  917
  972
  1,031
  1,092
  1,156
  1,224
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  67
  69
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  149
  171
  195
  219
  244
  270
  298
  326
  356
  387
  408
  442
  477
  513
  552
  591
  633
  676
  721
  769
  818
  870
  924
  981
  1,041
  1,103
  1,168
  1,237
  1,309
  1,384
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  107
  140
  162
  185
  209
  233
  259
  286
  315
  344
  374
  395
  428
  463
  498
  536
  575
  616
  658
  703
  749
  798
  849
  902
  958
  1,017
  1,078
  1,142
  1,209
  1,280
  1,354
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -65
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
Free cash flow, $m
  33
  75
  93
  111
  131
  151
  172
  194
  217
  241
  266
  281
  308
  336
  366
  396
  428
  461
  496
  532
  570
  610
  651
  695
  740
  787
  837
  889
  944
  1,002
  1,062
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -31
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -30
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  148
  170
  191
  214
  238
  262
  288
  315
  343
  371
  390
  422
  455
  489
  524
  562
  600
  641
  684
  728
  775
  823
  874
  928
  984
  1,043
  1,104
  1,169
  1,237
  1,308
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  134
  131
  151
  172
  194
  217
  241
  266
  292
  319
  336
  365
  395
  427
  460
  495
  531
  568
  608
  649
  692
  737
  784
  834
  885
  940
  997
  1,056
  1,119
  1,185
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  124
  112
  118
  121
  123
  122
  119
  114
  108
  100
  89
  80
  70
  61
  52
  43
  36
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Multi-Color Corporation (Multi-Color) is engaged in label solutions business, supporting brands, including producers of home and personal care, wine and spirit, food and beverage, healthcare and specialty consumer products. The Company serves international brand owners in North, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and China and Southeast Asia with a range of label technologies in Pressure Sensitive, Glue-Applied (Cut and Stack), In-Mold, Shrink Sleeve and Heat Transfer. The Company also provides a range of print methods, including flexographic, lithographic, rotogravure, letterpress and digital, and in-house prepress services. The Company provides graphics and pre-press services for its customers at all of its manufacturing locations. These services include the conversion of customer digital files and artwork into proofs, production of print layouts and printing plates, and product mock ups and samples for market research.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Multi-Color (LABL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.7
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 126.6%
Total Debt to Equity 127.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 17%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 6.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 30.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 6.6%

LABL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LABL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $923 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Multi-Color. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Multi-Color. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LABL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for LABL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Multi-Color, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Multi-Color.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LABL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $177 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LABL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Multi-Color.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Multi-Color. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LABL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LABL are equal to 43.7%.

Life of production assets of 17.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Multi-Color operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LABL is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $379 million for Multi-Color - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.441 million for Multi-Color is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Multi-Color at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ At $74.4, Is Multi-Color Corporation (NASDAQ:LABL) A Buy?   [Dec-26-17 06:25PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ High Growth Stocks To Invest In   [Dec-23-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Multi-Color misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 08:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Multi-Color Corp. : August 24, 2017   [Aug-24-17 03:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Multi-Color posts 1Q profit   [Aug-08-17 07:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Multi-Color Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-01-17 08:31AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ M&A Monday: Church & Dwight, Dominion Diamond, Valeant & More   [Jul-17-17 04:12PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:50AM  Briefing.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Multi-Color Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Multi-Color Corp. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 2nd   [Jun-02-17 09:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Company News for May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 10:35AM  Zacks]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [May-30-17 04:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Multi-Color posts 4Q profit   [09:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Multi-Color Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-05-17 08:31AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Multi-Color posts 3Q profit   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Multi-Color Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-01-17 01:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of LABL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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