Intrinsic value of Multi-Color - LABL

Previous Close

$72.75

  Intrinsic Value

$54.81

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-25%

Previous close

$72.75

 
Intrinsic value

$54.81

 
Up/down potential

-25%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LABL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.97
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  923
  946
  972
  1,001
  1,033
  1,068
  1,105
  1,146
  1,189
  1,236
  1,286
  1,339
  1,395
  1,455
  1,519
  1,586
  1,657
  1,732
  1,812
  1,895
  1,984
  2,077
  2,175
  2,279
  2,387
  2,502
  2,623
  2,750
  2,883
  3,023
  3,171
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  654
  670
  689
  710
  732
  757
  783
  811
  841
  874
  867
  903
  942
  983
  1,027
  1,073
  1,121
  1,173
  1,227
  1,284
  1,344
  1,408
  1,475
  1,545
  1,619
  1,698
  1,780
  1,866
  1,957
  2,052
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  181
  186
  191
  195
  200
  205
  210
  216
  221
  227
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  263
  269
  276
  283
  290
  297
  305
  312
  320
  328
  336
  345
  353
  362
  371
Total operating expenses, $m
  812
  835
  856
  880
  905
  932
  962
  993
  1,027
  1,062
  1,101
  1,099
  1,141
  1,186
  1,233
  1,283
  1,336
  1,390
  1,449
  1,510
  1,574
  1,641
  1,713
  1,787
  1,865
  1,947
  2,034
  2,125
  2,219
  2,319
  2,423
Operating income, $m
  111
  111
  116
  121
  128
  135
  143
  152
  163
  174
  186
  240
  254
  269
  286
  303
  322
  342
  363
  386
  410
  435
  463
  491
  522
  554
  589
  625
  664
  704
  747
EBITDA, $m
  158
  176
  181
  187
  195
  203
  212
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  289
  306
  324
  343
  363
  385
  408
  433
  459
  487
  517
  548
  582
  617
  654
  694
  736
  780
  826
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  87
  91
  96
  101
  107
  114
  122
  131
  140
  150
  203
  215
  228
  242
  257
  273
  291
  309
  329
  350
  372
  396
  421
  447
  476
  506
  538
  571
  607
  645
Tax expense, $m
  27
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  128
  137
  145
  154
  164
  174
Net income, $m
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  110
  148
  157
  166
  177
  188
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  271
  289
  307
  327
  347
  369
  392
  417
  443
  471

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,092
  1,094
  1,124
  1,157
  1,194
  1,234
  1,278
  1,325
  1,375
  1,429
  1,486
  1,548
  1,613
  1,682
  1,756
  1,834
  1,916
  2,003
  2,094
  2,191
  2,293
  2,401
  2,515
  2,634
  2,760
  2,893
  3,032
  3,179
  3,333
  3,495
  3,666
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,067
  1,094
  1,124
  1,157
  1,194
  1,234
  1,278
  1,325
  1,375
  1,429
  1,486
  1,548
  1,613
  1,682
  1,756
  1,834
  1,916
  2,003
  2,094
  2,191
  2,293
  2,401
  2,515
  2,634
  2,760
  2,893
  3,032
  3,179
  3,333
  3,495
  3,666
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
  0.865
Average production assets, $m
  403
  413
  425
  437
  451
  467
  483
  501
  520
  540
  562
  585
  610
  636
  664
  693
  724
  757
  792
  828
  867
  908
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,093
  1,146
  1,202
  1,260
  1,321
  1,386
Working capital, $m
  110
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  258
  271
  284
  298
Total debt, $m
  482
  497
  517
  540
  564
  591
  620
  651
  685
  721
  759
  800
  843
  889
  938
  990
  1,045
  1,103
  1,164
  1,228
  1,296
  1,368
  1,444
  1,523
  1,607
  1,695
  1,788
  1,886
  1,989
  2,097
  2,211
Total liabilities, $m
  713
  728
  748
  771
  795
  822
  851
  882
  916
  952
  990
  1,031
  1,074
  1,120
  1,169
  1,221
  1,276
  1,334
  1,395
  1,459
  1,527
  1,599
  1,675
  1,754
  1,838
  1,926
  2,019
  2,117
  2,220
  2,328
  2,442
Total equity, $m
  379
  365
  375
  387
  399
  412
  427
  442
  459
  477
  496
  517
  539
  562
  586
  612
  640
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  840
  880
  922
  966
  1,013
  1,062
  1,113
  1,167
  1,224
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,092
  1,093
  1,123
  1,158
  1,194
  1,234
  1,278
  1,324
  1,375
  1,429
  1,486
  1,548
  1,613
  1,682
  1,755
  1,833
  1,916
  2,003
  2,095
  2,191
  2,293
  2,401
  2,515
  2,634
  2,760
  2,892
  3,032
  3,179
  3,333
  3,495
  3,666
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.272
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.530
  1.550
  1.570
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.650
  1.660
  1.680
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.332
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  110
  148
  157
  166
  177
  188
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  271
  289
  307
  327
  347
  369
  392
  417
  443
  471
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  65
  66
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  129
  132
  136
  141
  146
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  182
  192
  203
  215
  227
  241
  255
  271
  287
  305
  323
  343
  364
  386
  410
  435
  461
  489
  518
  550
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  107
  127
  130
  134
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  178
  177
  186
  197
  209
  221
  234
  248
  263
  279
  296
  315
  334
  354
  376
  399
  423
  449
  476
  505
  536
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -141
Free cash flow, $m
  33
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  121
  128
  136
  145
  154
  163
  174
  185
  198
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  289
  308
  328
  349
  372
  396
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -31
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -30
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  156
  164
  162
  172
  182
  193
  205
  218
  232
  247
  262
  279
  296
  315
  334
  355
  378
  401
  426
  452
  480
  509
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  124
  105
  108
  111
  115
  120
  125
  131
  138
  145
  142
  150
  159
  169
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  244
  260
  277
  294
  313
  333
  354
  377
  401
  426
  452
Discount rate, %
 
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
  28.09
  29.49
  30.97
  32.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  115
  89
  84
  78
  73
  68
  62
  57
  51
  46
  37
  33
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Multi-Color Corporation (Multi-Color) is engaged in label solutions business, supporting brands, including producers of home and personal care, wine and spirit, food and beverage, healthcare and specialty consumer products. The Company serves international brand owners in North, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and China and Southeast Asia with a range of label technologies in Pressure Sensitive, Glue-Applied (Cut and Stack), In-Mold, Shrink Sleeve and Heat Transfer. The Company also provides a range of print methods, including flexographic, lithographic, rotogravure, letterpress and digital, and in-house prepress services. The Company provides graphics and pre-press services for its customers at all of its manufacturing locations. These services include the conversion of customer digital files and artwork into proofs, production of print layouts and printing plates, and product mock ups and samples for market research.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Multi-Color (LABL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.2
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 31.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 126.6%
Total Debt to Equity 127.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Equity 17%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Net Profit Margin 6.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 30.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 6.6%

LABL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LABL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $923 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Multi-Color. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Multi-Color. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LABL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.9%, whose default value for LABL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Multi-Color, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Multi-Color.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LABL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $177 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LABL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Multi-Color.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Multi-Color. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LABL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LABL are equal to 43.7%.

Life of production assets of 17.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Multi-Color operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LABL is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $379 million for Multi-Color - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.094 million for Multi-Color is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Multi-Color at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Multi-Color misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 08:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Multi-Color Corp. : August 24, 2017   [Aug-24-17 03:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Multi-Color posts 1Q profit   [Aug-08-17 07:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Multi-Color Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-01-17 08:31AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ M&A Monday: Church & Dwight, Dominion Diamond, Valeant & More   [Jul-17-17 04:12PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:50AM  Briefing.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Multi-Color Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Multi-Color Corp. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 2nd   [Jun-02-17 09:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Company News for May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 10:35AM  Zacks]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [May-30-17 04:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Multi-Color posts 4Q profit   [09:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ Multi-Color Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-05-17 08:31AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Multi-Color posts 3Q profit   [08:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ Multi-Color Corporation Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-01-17 01:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Has The Smart Money Found A Winner in Infoblox Inc (BLOX)?   [Dec-01-16 01:23PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of LABL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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