Intrinsic value of Ladder Capital Cl A - LADR

Previous Close

$14.78

  Intrinsic Value

$4.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-67%

Previous close

$14.78

 
Intrinsic value

$4.86

 
Up/down potential

-67%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as LADR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LADR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.86
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  394
  402
  411
  422
  434
  447
  461
  477
  494
  512
  532
  553
  575
  599
  625
  651
  680
  710
  742
  776
  812
  849
  889
  931
  975
  1,021
  1,070
  1,121
  1,176
  1,233
  1,292
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  188
  198
  207
  217
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  218
  224
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
  279
  286
  294
  301
  308
  316
  324
  332
  341
  349
  358
  367
  376
  385
  395
  405
  415
  425
  436
  447
Total operating expenses, $m
  274
  286
  293
  300
  308
  316
  324
  333
  343
  352
  362
  372
  383
  395
  406
  417
  430
  443
  457
  471
  485
  501
  516
  532
  549
  567
  585
  603
  623
  643
  664
Operating income, $m
  120
  116
  118
  121
  126
  131
  137
  144
  151
  160
  170
  180
  192
  205
  219
  234
  250
  267
  285
  305
  326
  349
  373
  399
  426
  455
  486
  518
  553
  590
  629
EBITDA, $m
  159
  156
  159
  163
  169
  175
  182
  191
  200
  211
  223
  235
  249
  264
  281
  298
  317
  337
  359
  382
  407
  433
  461
  491
  522
  556
  592
  629
  669
  712
  757
Interest expense (income), $m
  115
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  295
  310
  325
  342
  359
  377
  396
  416
  437
  459
  483
Earnings before tax, $m
  120
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -8
  -4
  0
  5
  11
  17
  24
  31
  39
  47
  57
  67
  78
  89
  102
  116
  130
  146
Tax expense, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
Net income, $m
  67
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -8
  -4
  0
  4
  8
  12
  17
  23
  28
  35
  41
  49
  57
  65
  75
  84
  95
  106

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,578
  5,660
  5,790
  5,939
  6,106
  6,291
  6,495
  6,716
  6,955
  7,213
  7,490
  7,786
  8,102
  8,439
  8,796
  9,176
  9,578
  10,003
  10,453
  10,929
  11,431
  11,961
  12,520
  13,109
  13,730
  14,383
  15,071
  15,796
  16,558
  17,360
  18,203
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,533
  5,660
  5,790
  5,939
  6,106
  6,291
  6,495
  6,716
  6,955
  7,213
  7,490
  7,786
  8,102
  8,439
  8,796
  9,176
  9,578
  10,003
  10,453
  10,929
  11,431
  11,961
  12,520
  13,109
  13,730
  14,383
  15,071
  15,796
  16,558
  17,360
  18,203
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
  0.071
Average production assets, $m
  829
  845
  865
  887
  912
  939
  970
  1,003
  1,039
  1,077
  1,118
  1,163
  1,210
  1,260
  1,313
  1,370
  1,430
  1,494
  1,561
  1,632
  1,707
  1,786
  1,869
  1,957
  2,050
  2,148
  2,250
  2,358
  2,472
  2,592
  2,718
Working capital, $m
  0
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
Total debt, $m
  3,942
  4,050
  4,158
  4,282
  4,422
  4,576
  4,745
  4,929
  5,129
  5,344
  5,574
  5,821
  6,084
  6,364
  6,662
  6,978
  7,313
  7,668
  8,043
  8,439
  8,857
  9,299
  9,764
  10,255
  10,772
  11,316
  11,889
  12,493
  13,128
  13,796
  14,498
Total liabilities, $m
  4,607
  4,715
  4,823
  4,947
  5,087
  5,241
  5,410
  5,594
  5,794
  6,009
  6,239
  6,486
  6,749
  7,029
  7,327
  7,643
  7,978
  8,333
  8,708
  9,104
  9,522
  9,964
  10,429
  10,920
  11,437
  11,981
  12,554
  13,158
  13,793
  14,461
  15,163
Total equity, $m
  971
  945
  967
  992
  1,020
  1,051
  1,085
  1,122
  1,162
  1,205
  1,251
  1,300
  1,353
  1,409
  1,469
  1,532
  1,599
  1,671
  1,746
  1,825
  1,909
  1,998
  2,091
  2,189
  2,293
  2,402
  2,517
  2,638
  2,765
  2,899
  3,040
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,578
  5,660
  5,790
  5,939
  6,107
  6,292
  6,495
  6,716
  6,956
  7,214
  7,490
  7,786
  8,102
  8,438
  8,796
  9,175
  9,577
  10,004
  10,454
  10,929
  11,431
  11,962
  12,520
  13,109
  13,730
  14,383
  15,071
  15,796
  16,558
  17,360
  18,203
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.060
  4.280
  4.300
  4.320
  4.340
  4.360
  4.370
  4.400
  4.420
  4.440
  4.460
  4.480
  4.500
  4.520
  4.540
  4.550
  4.570
  4.590
  4.610
  4.620
  4.640
  4.660
  4.670
  4.680
  4.700
  4.710
  4.720
  4.740
  4.750
  4.760
  4.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -21
  -19
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -8
  -4
  0
  4
  8
  12
  17
  23
  28
  35
  41
  49
  57
  65
  75
  84
  95
  106
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
Funds from operations, $m
  396
  18
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  36
  40
  45
  51
  58
  65
  71
  78
  86
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  146
  158
  171
  186
  201
  217
  235
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  409
  19
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  82
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  139
  151
  163
  177
  192
  207
  224
  241
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,040
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -248
Free cash flow, $m
  384
  -37
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -51
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -38
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -18
  -13
  -7
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -329
  108
  108
  124
  139
  154
  169
  184
  199
  215
  231
  247
  263
  280
  298
  316
  335
  355
  375
  396
  418
  441
  465
  491
  517
  544
  573
  603
  635
  668
  703
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -5
  41
  45
  49
  52
  55
  57
  59
  61
  62
  63
  64
  64
  64
  64
  63
  63
  63
  63
  62
  61
  60
  59
  57
  55
  52
  50
  46
  43
  39
  35
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -381
  149
  153
  173
  191
  209
  226
  243
  260
  277
  294
  311
  327
  344
  362
  379
  398
  418
  438
  458
  479
  501
  524
  548
  572
  596
  623
  649
  678
  707
  738
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  112
  113
  129
  145
  160
  176
  192
  207
  223
  240
  256
  274
  291
  310
  329
  348
  369
  390
  412
  435
  459
  484
  510
  537
  566
  596
  627
  660
  694
  730
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -143
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -64
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  45
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  116
  67
  80
  92
  105
  118
  132
  146
  161
  176
  192
  209
  227
  246
  265
  281
  297
  315
  332
  351
  370
  390
  412
  434
  457
  481
  506
  533
  560
  589
Discount rate, %
 
  11.90
  12.50
  13.12
  13.78
  14.46
  15.19
  15.95
  16.74
  17.58
  18.46
  19.38
  20.35
  21.37
  22.44
  23.56
  24.74
  25.98
  27.28
  28.64
  30.07
  31.57
  33.15
  34.81
  36.55
  38.38
  40.30
  42.31
  44.43
  46.65
  48.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  104
  53
  55
  55
  54
  51
  47
  42
  37
  32
  27
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.5
  94.8
  92.1
  89.3
  86.6
  83.9
  81.3
  78.8
  76.4
  74.1
  71.9
  69.9
  68.0
  66.3
  64.6
  63.1
  61.7
  60.4
  59.1
  58.0
  56.9
  56.0
  55.1
  54.3
  53.6
  52.9
  52.4
  51.9
  51.5
  51.1

Ladder Capital Corp is a commercial real estate finance company. The Company's segments include loans, securities, real estate and corporate/other. The loans segment includes mortgage loan receivables held for investment (balance sheet loans) and mortgage loan receivables held for sale (conduit loans). The securities segment consists of all of its activities related to commercial real estate securities, which include investments in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and United States Agency Securities. The real estate segment includes net leased properties, office buildings, a warehouse and condominium units. The Corporate/other segment includes the Company's investments in joint ventures, other asset management activities and operating expenses. The Company invests primarily in loans, securities and other interests in the United States commercial real estate, with a focus on senior secured assets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ladder Capital Cl A (LADR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.2
Price to Sales 4.1
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 406%
Total Debt to Equity 406%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital 1.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Equity 7.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.3%
EBITDA Margin 69.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 65.4%
Operating Margin 30.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 30.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Net Profit Margin 17%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Effective Tax Rate 5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Payout Ratio 100%

LADR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LADR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $394 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ladder Capital Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ladder Capital Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LADR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.9%, whose default value for LADR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ladder Capital Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ladder Capital Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LADR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 16.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $213 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LADR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ladder Capital Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ladder Capital Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LADR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LADR are equal to 210.3%.

Life of production assets of 21.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ladder Capital Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LADR is equal to -11.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $971 million for Ladder Capital Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 112.252 million for Ladder Capital Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ladder Capital Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Buy Ladder Capital Corp (LADR)?   [Dec-04-17 07:00AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ladder Capital meets 3Q profit forecasts   [05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ladder Capital Corp Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ladder Capital Corp to Report Third Quarter 2017 Results   [Oct-20-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Ladder Capital beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-03-17 02:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ladder Capital Corp Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ 5 High Yielding REITs To Buy   [Jul-31-17 07:14PM  Forbes]
▶ Ladder Capital Corp to Report Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Jul-19-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] President Trump Has No Problem Getting Loans at Good Terms   [Jun-23-17 11:13AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Ladder Capital misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-09-17 04:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ladder Capital Corp to Report First Quarter 2017 Results   [Apr-19-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Ladder Capital Corp a Good Investment?   [Mar-13-17 06:13PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Ladder Capital Corp a Good Investment?   [06:13PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Real Estate the 'Sleeper Buy' for 2017?   [Mar-06-17 05:48PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ [$$] Related Cos. Takes Stake in Ladder Capital   [Feb-28-17 07:30PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Ladder Capital Corp (LADR)?   [Dec-15-16 02:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of LADR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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