Intrinsic value of Lancaster Colony - LANC

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$128.52

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$128.52

 
Intrinsic value

$119.70

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LANC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.78
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  1,191
  1,284
  1,380
  1,481
  1,585
  1,693
  1,806
  1,923
  2,045
  2,172
  2,304
  2,442
  2,586
  2,735
  2,891
  3,055
  3,225
  3,403
  3,589
  3,783
  3,987
  4,200
  4,423
  4,656
  4,900
  5,156
  5,425
  5,706
  6,000
  6,309
  6,633
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  849
  912
  977
  1,045
  1,115
  1,188
  1,264
  1,344
  1,426
  1,512
  1,587
  1,680
  1,778
  1,879
  1,985
  2,096
  2,212
  2,332
  2,459
  2,591
  2,730
  2,874
  3,026
  3,185
  3,351
  3,525
  3,708
  3,900
  4,100
  4,311
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  229
  234
  240
  246
  252
  259
  265
  272
  278
  285
  293
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  348
  356
  365
  375
  384
  394
  403
  413
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,007
  1,078
  1,146
  1,217
  1,291
  1,367
  1,447
  1,529
  1,616
  1,704
  1,797
  1,880
  1,980
  2,085
  2,194
  2,308
  2,427
  2,551
  2,680
  2,815
  2,956
  3,105
  3,258
  3,420
  3,588
  3,764
  3,949
  4,142
  4,345
  4,556
  4,779
Operating income, $m
  185
  207
  235
  264
  294
  326
  359
  394
  430
  468
  507
  562
  605
  650
  697
  746
  798
  852
  909
  968
  1,030
  1,096
  1,164
  1,237
  1,312
  1,392
  1,475
  1,563
  1,655
  1,752
  1,854
EBITDA, $m
  209
  236
  266
  296
  328
  361
  396
  432
  469
  508
  549
  592
  637
  683
  732
  783
  837
  893
  952
  1,014
  1,079
  1,147
  1,218
  1,293
  1,372
  1,454
  1,541
  1,632
  1,728
  1,829
  1,935
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Earnings before tax, $m
  185
  207
  234
  263
  293
  325
  357
  392
  427
  464
  503
  558
  601
  645
  692
  740
  791
  845
  901
  960
  1,021
  1,086
  1,154
  1,225
  1,300
  1,379
  1,461
  1,548
  1,639
  1,735
  1,836
Tax expense, $m
  63
  56
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  106
  115
  125
  136
  151
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  276
  293
  312
  331
  351
  372
  395
  418
  443
  469
  496
Net income, $m
  122
  151
  171
  192
  214
  237
  261
  286
  312
  339
  367
  408
  439
  471
  505
  540
  578
  617
  658
  700
  745
  793
  842
  894
  949
  1,006
  1,067
  1,130
  1,197
  1,267
  1,340

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  118
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  635
  557
  599
  643
  688
  735
  784
  835
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,255
  1,326
  1,400
  1,477
  1,558
  1,642
  1,730
  1,823
  1,920
  2,021
  2,127
  2,238
  2,354
  2,476
  2,604
  2,738
  2,879
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  517
  557
  599
  643
  688
  735
  784
  835
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,122
  1,187
  1,255
  1,326
  1,400
  1,477
  1,558
  1,642
  1,730
  1,823
  1,920
  2,021
  2,127
  2,238
  2,354
  2,476
  2,604
  2,738
  2,879
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.304
  2.305
  2.304
  2.303
  2.304
  2.303
  2.304
  2.303
  2.303
  2.303
  2.304
  2.304
  2.305
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.305
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
  2.305
  2.305
  2.304
  2.304
  2.304
Average production assets, $m
  217
  234
  251
  270
  288
  308
  329
  350
  372
  395
  419
  444
  471
  498
  526
  556
  587
  619
  653
  689
  726
  764
  805
  847
  892
  938
  987
  1,038
  1,092
  1,148
  1,207
Working capital, $m
  195
  83
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  221
  233
  246
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
  410
  431
Total debt, $m
  0
  9
  19
  29
  40
  51
  62
  74
  87
  100
  113
  127
  142
  157
  173
  189
  207
  225
  243
  263
  284
  306
  328
  352
  377
  403
  430
  458
  488
  520
  553
Total liabilities, $m
  121
  130
  140
  150
  161
  172
  183
  195
  208
  221
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  310
  328
  346
  364
  384
  405
  427
  449
  473
  498
  524
  551
  579
  609
  641
  674
Total equity, $m
  514
  427
  459
  492
  527
  563
  600
  639
  680
  722
  766
  812
  860
  909
  961
  1,016
  1,072
  1,131
  1,193
  1,258
  1,326
  1,396
  1,470
  1,548
  1,629
  1,714
  1,803
  1,897
  1,995
  2,098
  2,205
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  635
  557
  599
  642
  688
  735
  783
  834
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,060
  1,123
  1,187
  1,255
  1,326
  1,400
  1,477
  1,557
  1,642
  1,731
  1,823
  1,919
  2,021
  2,127
  2,238
  2,354
  2,476
  2,604
  2,739
  2,879
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766
  0.766

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  122
  151
  171
  192
  214
  237
  261
  286
  312
  339
  367
  408
  439
  471
  505
  540
  578
  617
  658
  700
  745
  793
  842
  894
  949
  1,006
  1,067
  1,130
  1,197
  1,267
  1,340
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
Funds from operations, $m
  139
  181
  202
  224
  248
  272
  297
  324
  351
  380
  410
  437
  470
  504
  540
  578
  617
  658
  701
  746
  794
  844
  896
  951
  1,008
  1,069
  1,133
  1,199
  1,270
  1,343
  1,421
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  143
  172
  196
  218
  241
  265
  290
  316
  343
  372
  401
  428
  461
  494
  530
  567
  606
  646
  689
  734
  781
  830
  881
  936
  993
  1,052
  1,115
  1,181
  1,250
  1,323
  1,400
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -31
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
Free cash flow, $m
  126
  141
  163
  183
  204
  226
  249
  273
  298
  324
  351
  375
  405
  436
  468
  502
  538
  575
  614
  655
  698
  743
  790
  839
  892
  946
  1,004
  1,064
  1,128
  1,194
  1,264
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  127
  150
  173
  193
  215
  237
  260
  285
  310
  337
  364
  389
  419
  451
  484
  519
  555
  593
  633
  675
  718
  764
  813
  863
  916
  972
  1,031
  1,093
  1,157
  1,226
  1,297
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  118
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  237
  140
  160
  180
  201
  223
  246
  270
  294
  320
  343
  372
  401
  432
  465
  498
  534
  571
  610
  651
  693
  738
  786
  835
  887
  942
  999
  1,060
  1,123
  1,190
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  227
  129
  139
  148
  156
  162
  166
  168
  169
  168
  163
  159
  153
  145
  136
  127
  116
  105
  94
  83
  72
  61
  51
  43
  35
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lancaster Colony Corporation manufactures and markets specialty food products for the retail and foodservice markets in the United States. It offers salad dressings and sauces under the Marzetti, Marzetti Simply Dressed, Cardini’s, Girard’s, and Katherine’s Kitchen brands; vegetable dips and fruit dips under the Marzetti brand; frozen garlic breads under the New York BRAND Bakery, Mamma Bella, ad Mamma Bella’s brands; and frozen Parkerhouse style yeast and dinner rolls under the Sister Schubert’s and Mary B’s brands. The company also provides dry egg noodles under the Inn Maid and Amish Kitchen brands; frozen specialty noodles under the Reames and Aunt Vi’s brands; croutons and salad toppings under the New York BRAND Bakery, New York BRAND Bakery Texas Toast, Chatham Village, Cardini’s, Marzetti Simply Dressed, and Marzetti brands; flatbread wraps and pizza crusts under the Flatout brand; and caviar under the Romanoff brand. In addition, it manufactures and sells other products to brand license agreements, including Olive Garden’s dressing, Jack Daniel's mustards, and Hungry Girl flatbreads. The company’s products are sold through sales personnel, food brokers, and distributors to retailers and restaurants, as well as for industrial customers. Lancaster Colony Corporation was founded in 1961 and is based in Columbus, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lancaster Colony (LANC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.9
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 6.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 28
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -5.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 18.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Return On Total Capital 22.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Return On Equity 22.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Net Profit Margin 10.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Effective Tax Rate 34.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Payout Ratio 156.6%

LANC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LANC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1191 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lancaster Colony. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lancaster Colony. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LANC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LANC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lancaster Colony, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lancaster Colony.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LANC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 66.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $223 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LANC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Lancaster Colony.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lancaster Colony. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LANC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LANC are equal to 18.2%.

Life of production assets of 15 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lancaster Colony operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LANC is equal to 6.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $514 million for Lancaster Colony - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.398 million for Lancaster Colony is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lancaster Colony at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ United Natural (UNFI) Downgraded to Sell on Dismal Trends   [Mar-29-17 05:12PM  Investopedia]
▶ Lancaster Colony Continues Higher Cash Dividend   [Feb-22-17 01:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Yacktman Asset Management Comments on Lancaster Colony   [Feb-08-17 12:22PM  GuruFocus.com]
Stock chart of LANC Financial statements of LANC
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