Intrinsic value of Lancaster Colony - LANC

Previous Close

$144.57

  Intrinsic Value

$70.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-51%

Previous close

$144.57

 
Intrinsic value

$70.63

 
Up/down potential

-51%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of LANC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.92
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,202
  1,226
  1,254
  1,286
  1,323
  1,363
  1,407
  1,455
  1,507
  1,562
  1,622
  1,687
  1,755
  1,828
  1,905
  1,987
  2,075
  2,167
  2,264
  2,367
  2,476
  2,591
  2,712
  2,839
  2,974
  3,115
  3,265
  3,421
  3,587
  3,760
  3,943
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,036
  1,059
  1,085
  1,115
  1,148
  1,185
  1,224
  1,267
  1,313
  1,363
  1,393
  1,450
  1,510
  1,574
  1,642
  1,714
  1,790
  1,870
  1,955
  2,045
  2,140
  2,240
  2,345
  2,457
  2,573
  2,697
  2,826
  2,963
  3,106
  3,257
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,027
  1,036
  1,059
  1,085
  1,115
  1,148
  1,185
  1,224
  1,267
  1,313
  1,363
  1,393
  1,450
  1,510
  1,574
  1,642
  1,714
  1,790
  1,870
  1,955
  2,045
  2,140
  2,240
  2,345
  2,457
  2,573
  2,697
  2,826
  2,963
  3,106
  3,257
Operating income, $m
  175
  190
  195
  201
  207
  214
  222
  230
  239
  249
  259
  293
  305
  318
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  686
EBITDA, $m
  200
  252
  258
  265
  272
  281
  290
  299
  310
  322
  334
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  510
  533
  558
  585
  612
  641
  672
  704
  738
  774
  812
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  176
  190
  195
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  291
  302
  314
  328
  341
  356
  371
  388
  405
  423
  443
  463
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  670
Tax expense, $m
  61
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
Net income, $m
  115
  139
  143
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  174
  180
  188
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  143
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  716
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  877
  912
  949
  989
  1,030
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,766
  1,850
  1,940
  2,034
  2,132
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  573
  663
  678
  696
  715
  737
  761
  787
  815
  845
  877
  912
  949
  989
  1,030
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,280
  1,339
  1,401
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,766
  1,850
  1,940
  2,034
  2,132
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.098
  1.849
  1.850
  1.848
  1.850
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.850
  1.849
  1.848
  1.850
  1.848
  1.849
  1.849
  1.848
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.848
  1.850
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
  1.849
Average production assets, $m
  227
  391
  400
  410
  422
  435
  449
  464
  481
  498
  518
  538
  560
  583
  608
  634
  662
  691
  722
  755
  790
  826
  865
  906
  949
  994
  1,041
  1,091
  1,144
  1,200
  1,258
Working capital, $m
  224
  36
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  24
  30
  36
  42
  49
  57
  65
  73
  82
  92
  102
  113
  124
  136
  149
  162
  176
  191
  207
  224
  241
  259
  279
  299
  320
Total liabilities, $m
  140
  143
  147
  150
  155
  159
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
  214
  223
  232
  242
  253
  265
  277
  289
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
  461
Total equity, $m
  576
  520
  532
  545
  561
  578
  596
  617
  639
  662
  688
  715
  744
  775
  808
  843
  880
  919
  960
  1,004
  1,050
  1,099
  1,150
  1,204
  1,261
  1,321
  1,384
  1,451
  1,521
  1,594
  1,672
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  716
  663
  679
  695
  716
  737
  760
  787
  815
  845
  878
  912
  949
  989
  1,031
  1,075
  1,122
  1,172
  1,225
  1,281
  1,339
  1,402
  1,467
  1,536
  1,608
  1,685
  1,765
  1,851
  1,940
  2,033
  2,133
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.756
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784
  0.784

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  115
  139
  143
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  174
  180
  188
  212
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  387
  406
  425
  445
  467
  489
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
Funds from operations, $m
  142
  201
  205
  210
  216
  222
  229
  236
  244
  253
  262
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  444
  465
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  200
  205
  209
  215
  221
  228
  235
  243
  251
  261
  264
  275
  286
  298
  310
  323
  338
  353
  368
  385
  402
  421
  441
  461
  483
  506
  530
  555
  581
  609
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -169
  -178
Free cash flow, $m
  83
  154
  156
  159
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  242
  252
  263
  275
  287
  300
  313
  328
  343
  359
  375
  393
  412
  431
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  84
  158
  160
  163
  167
  171
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  394
  412
  432
  453
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  213
  148
  149
  151
  154
  157
  160
  164
  168
  173
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  232
  241
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  313
  327
  342
  358
  375
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  205
  135
  130
  124
  119
  114
  108
  102
  97
  91
  82
  76
  70
  64
  58
  52
  46
  41
  36
  31
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lancaster Colony Corporation is a manufacturer and marketer of specialty food products for the retail and foodservice channels. The Company's food products include Salad dressings and sauces, Vegetable dips and fruit dips, Frozen garlic breads, Frozen Parkerhouse style yeast rolls and dinner rolls, Premium dry egg noodles, Frozen specialty noodles, Croutons and salad toppings, Flatbread wraps and pizza crusts, and Caviar. Its brands include Marzetti, Marzetti Simply Dressed, Cardini's, Girard's, Katherine's Kitchen, New York BRAND Bakery, Mamma Bella's, Sister Schubert's, Mary B's, Inn Maid, Amish Kitchen, Reames, Aunt Vi's, Flatout and Romanoff. It manufactures and sells other products pursuant to brand license agreements, including Olive Garden dressing, Jack Daniel's mustards and Hungry Girl flatbreads. A portion of its sales are dressing packets, frozen specialty noodles, pasta and flatbreads sold to industrial customers for use as ingredients or components in their products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lancaster Colony (LANC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.5
Price to Sales 3.3
Price to Book 6.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 58.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 17%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Return On Total Capital 21.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Return On Equity 21.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
EBITDA Margin 16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 51.3%

LANC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LANC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1202 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lancaster Colony. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Lancaster Colony. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LANC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LANC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lancaster Colony, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lancaster Colony.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LANC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LANC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Lancaster Colony.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lancaster Colony. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LANC stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LANC are equal to 31.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lancaster Colony operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LANC is equal to 2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $576 million for Lancaster Colony - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27 million for Lancaster Colony is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lancaster Colony at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lancaster Colony Continues Higher Cash Dividend   [May-24-18 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Lancaster Colony: Fiscal 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [Apr-26-18 09:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Lancaster Colony Continues Higher Cash Dividend   [Feb-28-18 01:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Marzetti owner still hungry for acquisitions, if the deals are right   [Feb-12-18 03:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Garlic bread and salad dressing maker sees tax change benefits   [Jan-25-18 11:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 2Q profit   [07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nike Inc Leads 5 Dividend Stocks Boosting Payouts   [Nov-17-17 01:38PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 1Q profit   [Oct-26-17 08:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 2nd   [Oct-02-17 08:15AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 21st   [Sep-21-17 08:07AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for September 15th   [Sep-15-17 08:16AM  Zacks]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 4Q profit   [Aug-17-17 10:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lancaster Colony CEO on what Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods means for the industry   [Jul-06-17 01:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Lancaster Colony posts 3Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ United Natural (UNFI) Downgraded to Sell on Dismal Trends   [Mar-29-17 05:12PM  Investopedia]
▶ Lancaster Colony Continues Higher Cash Dividend   [Feb-22-17 01:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Yacktman Asset Management Comments on Lancaster Colony   [Feb-08-17 12:22PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of LANC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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