Intrinsic value of Layne Christensen - LAYN

Previous Close

$9.67

  Intrinsic Value

$0.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

-20%

Previous close

$9.67

 
Intrinsic value

$0.93

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-20%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LAYN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -11.86
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  602
  614
  628
  644
  662
  683
  705
  729
  755
  782
  813
  845
  879
  915
  954
  995
  1,039
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,240
  1,298
  1,358
  1,422
  1,489
  1,560
  1,635
  1,714
  1,796
  1,883
  1,975
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  583
  597
  612
  629
  648
  669
  692
  717
  743
  772
  801
  834
  868
  905
  944
  986
  1,029
  1,076
  1,125
  1,176
  1,231
  1,288
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,551
  1,625
  1,704
  1,786
  1,873
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  151
  155
Total operating expenses, $m
  644
  659
  675
  692
  711
  732
  755
  780
  807
  835
  867
  898
  934
  970
  1,010
  1,051
  1,096
  1,142
  1,191
  1,243
  1,297
  1,355
  1,415
  1,480
  1,547
  1,617
  1,692
  1,769
  1,852
  1,937
  2,028
Operating income, $m
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -55
  -55
  -56
  -56
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -57
  -56
  -56
  -55
  -54
  -54
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -38
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -30
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -20
  -17
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
Earnings before tax, $m
  -51
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -52
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  436
  402
  412
  422
  434
  447
  462
  477
  494
  513
  532
  554
  576
  600
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
  777
  813
  850
  890
  932
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,234
  1,294
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  367
  402
  412
  422
  434
  447
  462
  477
  494
  513
  532
  554
  576
  600
  625
  652
  681
  711
  743
  777
  813
  850
  890
  932
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,234
  1,294
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.640
  1.527
  1.524
  1.526
  1.525
  1.528
  1.526
  1.528
  1.528
  1.524
  1.528
  1.525
  1.526
  1.525
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.525
  1.527
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.527
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
  1.526
Average production assets, $m
  110
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  249
  260
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  345
  361
Working capital, $m
  105
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
Total debt, $m
  162
  169
  177
  187
  197
  209
  222
  236
  252
  268
  286
  304
  325
  346
  369
  393
  419
  446
  475
  505
  537
  571
  606
  644
  683
  725
  769
  815
  864
  915
  969
Total liabilities, $m
  354
  361
  369
  379
  389
  401
  414
  428
  444
  460
  478
  496
  517
  538
  561
  585
  611
  638
  667
  697
  729
  763
  798
  836
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,056
  1,107
  1,161
Total equity, $m
  82
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  436
  402
  411
  422
  434
  447
  462
  477
  495
  513
  533
  553
  576
  600
  625
  652
  681
  711
  744
  777
  813
  851
  890
  932
  976
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
  1,177
  1,234
  1,294
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.976
  4.080
  4.180
  4.290
  4.410
  4.540
  4.670
  4.800
  4.940
  5.070
  5.210
  5.340
  5.470
  5.600
  5.730
  5.850
  5.970
  6.090
  6.200
  6.310
  6.410
  6.520
  6.610
  6.710
  6.800
  6.890
  6.970
  7.050
  7.130
  7.200
  7.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.035
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103
  0.103

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -52
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -116
  -119
  -122
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  36
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -81
  -82
  -84
  -85
  -86
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -74
  -76
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -82
  -84
  -85
  -87
  -88
  -90
  -92
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -111
  -114
  -117
  -121
  -124
  -128
  -131
  -135
  -139
  -143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  96
  99
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  96
  99
  103
  107
  110
  115
  118
  123
  126
  131
  136
  140
  145
  150
  155
  160
  165
  171
  176
  182
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -91
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -104
  -107
  -110
  -113
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -125
  -128
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -81
  -82
  -84
  -85
  -86
  -88
  -89
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -10
  -44
  -41
  -37
  -34
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  61.7
  38.0
  23.3
  14.3
  8.8
  5.4
  3.3
  2.0
  1.2
  0.8
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Layne Christensen Company operates as a water management, construction, and drilling company that provide solutions for the water, mineral, and energy markets worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Water Resources, Inliner, Heavy Civil, and Mineral Services. The Water Resources segment offers water-related products and services, including hydrologic design and construction; source of supply exploration; well and intake construction; and well and pump rehabilitation services. This segment also provides water treatment equipment engineering services and systems for the treatment of regulated and nuisance contaminants. In addition, it offers closed loop water management solutions to energy companies that are involved in hydraulic fracturing. The Inliner segment provides process, sanitary, and storm water rehabilitation solutions to municipalities and industrial customers dealing with aging infrastructure needs, as well as other rehabilitative methods, such as Janssen structural renewal for service lateral connections and mainlines, slip lining, traditional excavation and replacement, and manhole renewal with cementitious and epoxy products. The Heavy Civil segment offers water and wastewater treatment plants design and construction, and pipeline installation services; builds radial collector wells, surface water intakes, pumping stations, and hard rock tunnels, as well as offers marine construction services; and designs and constructs biogas facilities. The Mineral Services segment conducts above ground drilling activities comprising core drilling, reverse circulation, dual tube, hammer, and rotary air-blast methods; and provides exploratory and definition drilling services. The company was formerly known as Layne Inc. and changed its name to Layne Christensen Company in June 1996. Layne Christensen Company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Layne Christensen (LAYN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.7
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -21.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -11.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 197.6%
Total Debt to Equity 197.6%
Interest Coverage -3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Return On Total Capital -19.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Return On Equity -49.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -41.7%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
EBITDA Margin -2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Operating Margin -7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.6%
Net Profit Margin -8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Effective Tax Rate -2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

LAYN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LAYN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $602 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Layne Christensen. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Layne Christensen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LAYN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for LAYN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Layne Christensen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Layne Christensen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LAYN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $74 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LAYN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.5% for Layne Christensen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Layne Christensen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LAYN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LAYN are equal to 18.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Layne Christensen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LAYN is equal to 6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $82 million for Layne Christensen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.661 million for Layne Christensen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Layne Christensen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Breakout Stocks Offering Phenomenal Returns   [Jul-07-17 08:41AM  Zacks]
▶ Layne Christensen reports 1Q loss   [Jun-08-17 04:40PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Layne Christensen Co. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 18th   [Apr-18-17 10:30AM  Zacks]
▶ Layne Christensen reports 4Q loss   [Apr-10-17 04:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Making the Long-Term Bet on Water   [Sep-03-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Layne Christensen Joins Russell Indexes   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] A Global Value Investor Steps Back Into the Fray   [Mar-05-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of LAYN Financial statements of LAYN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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