Intrinsic value of Libbey - LBY

Previous Close

$8.36

  Intrinsic Value

$16.89

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+102%

  Value-price divergence*

+22%

Previous close

$8.36

 
Intrinsic value

$16.89

 
Up/down potential

+102%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+22%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LBY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.52
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  796
  812
  831
  852
  876
  902
  932
  963
  998
  1,035
  1,074
  1,117
  1,162
  1,210
  1,262
  1,316
  1,374
  1,435
  1,499
  1,568
  1,640
  1,716
  1,796
  1,880
  1,969
  2,063
  2,162
  2,266
  2,375
  2,490
  2,611
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  769
  787
  806
  829
  853
  880
  910
  942
  976
  1,013
  1,036
  1,078
  1,123
  1,170
  1,221
  1,274
  1,331
  1,391
  1,454
  1,521
  1,591
  1,665
  1,744
  1,826
  1,913
  2,005
  2,101
  2,203
  2,309
  2,422
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  751
  769
  787
  806
  829
  853
  880
  910
  942
  976
  1,013
  1,036
  1,078
  1,123
  1,170
  1,221
  1,274
  1,331
  1,391
  1,454
  1,521
  1,591
  1,665
  1,744
  1,826
  1,913
  2,005
  2,101
  2,203
  2,309
  2,422
Operating income, $m
  45
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  165
  172
  181
  190
EBITDA, $m
  93
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  116
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
Interest expense (income), $m
  22
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
Earnings before tax, $m
  28
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
Tax expense, $m
  18
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Net income, $m
  10
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  818
  791
  809
  830
  853
  879
  907
  938
  971
  1,007
  1,046
  1,087
  1,132
  1,179
  1,229
  1,282
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,526
  1,597
  1,671
  1,749
  1,831
  1,918
  2,009
  2,105
  2,206
  2,313
  2,425
  2,542
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  757
  791
  809
  830
  853
  879
  907
  938
  971
  1,007
  1,046
  1,087
  1,132
  1,179
  1,229
  1,282
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,526
  1,597
  1,671
  1,749
  1,831
  1,918
  2,009
  2,105
  2,206
  2,313
  2,425
  2,542
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.052
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.026
  1.028
  1.027
  1.028
  1.028
  1.027
  1.028
  1.027
  1.026
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.028
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
  1.027
Average production assets, $m
  280
  285
  292
  299
  307
  317
  327
  338
  350
  363
  377
  392
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  504
  526
  550
  576
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
  759
  795
  834
  874
  916
Working capital, $m
  177
  123
  126
  129
  133
  137
  142
  146
  152
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  378
  397
Total debt, $m
  408
  416
  432
  450
  470
  492
  517
  544
  572
  603
  637
  672
  710
  751
  794
  840
  888
  939
  994
  1,051
  1,111
  1,175
  1,242
  1,313
  1,388
  1,467
  1,550
  1,637
  1,729
  1,825
  1,927
Total liabilities, $m
  673
  681
  697
  715
  735
  757
  782
  809
  837
  868
  902
  937
  975
  1,016
  1,059
  1,105
  1,153
  1,204
  1,259
  1,316
  1,376
  1,440
  1,507
  1,578
  1,653
  1,732
  1,815
  1,902
  1,994
  2,090
  2,192
Total equity, $m
  145
  109
  112
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  211
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  319
  335
  351
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  818
  790
  809
  829
  853
  878
  907
  938
  971
  1,007
  1,046
  1,087
  1,131
  1,179
  1,229
  1,282
  1,338
  1,397
  1,460
  1,527
  1,596
  1,671
  1,748
  1,831
  1,918
  2,009
  2,105
  2,206
  2,313
  2,425
  2,543
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.814
  3.820
  3.870
  3.930
  3.990
  4.060
  4.130
  4.200
  4.270
  4.340
  4.410
  4.480
  4.550
  4.620
  4.680
  4.750
  4.810
  4.870
  4.930
  4.990
  5.040
  5.100
  5.150
  5.200
  5.240
  5.290
  5.330
  5.380
  5.420
  5.450
  5.490
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.111
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138
  0.138

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  10
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  48
  45
  46
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  83
  58
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  68
  70
  72
  75
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
Free cash flow, $m
  48
  25
  24
  23
  23
  22
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
  13
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -24
  13
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -25
  13
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  38
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  3
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  74
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
Discount rate, %
 
  9.30
  9.77
  10.25
  10.77
  11.30
  11.87
  12.46
  13.09
  13.74
  14.43
  15.15
  15.91
  16.70
  17.54
  18.41
  19.33
  20.30
  21.32
  22.38
  23.50
  24.68
  25.91
  27.20
  28.57
  29.99
  31.49
  33.07
  34.72
  36.46
  38.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  68
  31
  29
  26
  24
  21
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Libbey Inc. manufactures and markets glass tableware products worldwide. It offers glass tableware products, including tumblers, stemware, mugs, bowls, vases, salt and pepper shakers, shot glasses, canisters, candleholders, and various other items; glass bakeware; handmade glass tableware; and other glass products for original equipment manufacturers, such as blender jars and washing machine windows. The company also provides ceramic dinnerware products comprising plates, bowls, platters, cups, saucers, and other tableware accessories; metal flatware consisting of knives, forks, spoons, and serving utensils; and metal hollowware, including serving trays, pitchers, and other metal tableware accessories, as well as a line of ceramic dinnerware. In addition, it distributes fine stemware and other drinkware assortments; upscale serveware, decorative products, stemware, and drinkware for finer dining establishments; porcelain and bone china products; and tableware and giftware products. Libbey Inc. offers its products under the Libbey, Crisa, Royal Leerdam, World Tableware, Syracuse China, and Crisal Glass brand names. The company markets its products to foodservice distributors, mass merchants, department stores, retail distributors, national retail chains, specialty housewares stores, candle and food packers, decorators, breweries, distilleries, craft industries, gourmet food-packing companies, and customers using glass containers for candle and floral applications. Libbey Inc. was founded in 1818 and is headquartered in Toledo, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Libbey (LBY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.3
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 277.9%
Total Debt to Equity 281.4%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Equity 6.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
EBITDA Margin 12.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 5.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 64.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Payout Ratio 100%

LBY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LBY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $796 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Libbey. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Libbey. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LBY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.3%, whose default value for LBY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Libbey, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Libbey.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LBY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LBY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Libbey.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Libbey. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LBY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LBY are equal to 35.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Libbey operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LBY is equal to 15.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $145 million for Libbey - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.149 million for Libbey is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Libbey at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Libbey reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 09:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Libbey Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-25-17 02:21PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Libbey, Inc. : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 12:55PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Libbey Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-17-17 02:37PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Libbey, Inc. : May 11, 2017   [May-11-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Libbey Inc. Stock Took a Dive   [May-02-17 04:36PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Libbey reports 1Q loss   [07:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Libbey, Inc. : April 20, 2017   [Apr-20-17 02:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Libbey reports 4Q loss   [09:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Libbey Board Of Directors Approves 2% Dividend Increase   [Feb-07-17 02:03PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Libbey Inc. (LBY) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-12-16 12:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Libbey Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Oct-25-16 01:38PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Libbey Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-26-16 01:47PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Libbey Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-10-16 01:46PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of LBY Financial statements of LBY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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