Intrinsic value of Lannett - LCI

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$20.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$20.05

 
Intrinsic value

$52.80

 
Up/down potential

+163%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  39.07
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  566
  577
  591
  606
  623
  642
  662
  685
  709
  736
  764
  794
  826
  861
  897
  936
  977
  1,020
  1,066
  1,115
  1,166
  1,220
  1,277
  1,337
  1,400
  1,467
  1,537
  1,611
  1,689
  1,771
  1,857
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  255
  260
  265
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  315
  326
  304
  316
  330
  344
  358
  374
  391
  408
  427
  447
  467
  489
  512
  536
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  438
  255
  260
  265
  272
  279
  287
  296
  305
  315
  326
  304
  316
  330
  344
  358
  374
  391
  408
  427
  447
  467
  489
  512
  536
  562
  589
  617
  647
  678
  711
Operating income, $m
  128
  323
  331
  340
  351
  363
  375
  389
  404
  421
  438
  490
  510
  531
  554
  577
  603
  630
  658
  688
  719
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,092
  1,146
EBITDA, $m
  161
  381
  390
  400
  411
  423
  437
  452
  468
  485
  504
  524
  545
  568
  592
  617
  645
  673
  703
  736
  769
  805
  843
  882
  924
  968
  1,014
  1,063
  1,114
  1,168
  1,225
Interest expense (income), $m
  53
  88
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
Earnings before tax, $m
  62
  234
  240
  247
  255
  264
  273
  283
  294
  306
  319
  365
  380
  395
  411
  429
  447
  466
  486
  508
  531
  555
  580
  607
  635
  664
  696
  728
  763
  799
  837
Tax expense, $m
  17
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  83
  86
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
Net income, $m
  45
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  233
  267
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  239
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,764
  1,556
  1,592
  1,633
  1,679
  1,730
  1,785
  1,846
  1,912
  1,983
  2,059
  2,141
  2,227
  2,320
  2,418
  2,523
  2,633
  2,750
  2,874
  3,005
  3,143
  3,288
  3,442
  3,604
  3,775
  3,954
  4,143
  4,343
  4,552
  4,773
  5,004
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,525
  1,556
  1,592
  1,633
  1,679
  1,730
  1,785
  1,846
  1,912
  1,983
  2,059
  2,141
  2,227
  2,320
  2,418
  2,523
  2,633
  2,750
  2,874
  3,005
  3,143
  3,288
  3,442
  3,604
  3,775
  3,954
  4,143
  4,343
  4,552
  4,773
  5,004
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
  0.371
Average production assets, $m
  458
  467
  478
  490
  504
  519
  536
  554
  574
  595
  618
  642
  669
  696
  726
  757
  790
  825
  863
  902
  943
  987
  1,033
  1,082
  1,133
  1,187
  1,244
  1,303
  1,366
  1,432
  1,502
Working capital, $m
  306
  250
  256
  262
  270
  278
  287
  297
  307
  319
  331
  344
  358
  373
  388
  405
  423
  442
  462
  483
  505
  528
  553
  579
  606
  635
  666
  698
  731
  767
  804
Total debt, $m
  1,062
  905
  930
  957
  989
  1,023
  1,061
  1,102
  1,147
  1,195
  1,246
  1,301
  1,360
  1,423
  1,489
  1,560
  1,635
  1,714
  1,798
  1,886
  1,980
  2,078
  2,182
  2,292
  2,407
  2,529
  2,657
  2,792
  2,934
  3,083
  3,240
Total liabilities, $m
  1,210
  1,053
  1,078
  1,105
  1,137
  1,171
  1,209
  1,250
  1,295
  1,343
  1,394
  1,449
  1,508
  1,571
  1,637
  1,708
  1,783
  1,862
  1,946
  2,034
  2,128
  2,226
  2,330
  2,440
  2,555
  2,677
  2,805
  2,940
  3,082
  3,231
  3,388
Total equity, $m
  554
  503
  514
  527
  542
  559
  577
  596
  618
  641
  665
  691
  719
  749
  781
  815
  850
  888
  928
  970
  1,015
  1,062
  1,112
  1,164
  1,219
  1,277
  1,338
  1,403
  1,470
  1,542
  1,616
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,764
  1,556
  1,592
  1,632
  1,679
  1,730
  1,786
  1,846
  1,913
  1,984
  2,059
  2,140
  2,227
  2,320
  2,418
  2,523
  2,633
  2,750
  2,874
  3,004
  3,143
  3,288
  3,442
  3,604
  3,774
  3,954
  4,143
  4,343
  4,552
  4,773
  5,004
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.917
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.960
  1.970
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  1.990
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.207
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323
  0.323

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  207
  215
  223
  233
  267
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  371
  387
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
  611
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  33
  58
  59
  59
  60
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
Funds from operations, $m
  173
  229
  234
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  301
  313
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  419
  437
  457
  478
  500
  523
  548
  574
  601
  629
  659
  691
Change in working capital, $m
  38
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  558
  228
  233
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  286
  288
  299
  310
  323
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  415
  434
  453
  474
  496
  519
  543
  569
  595
  624
  653
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -959
  -33
  -36
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -104
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -146
Free cash flow, $m
  -824
  525
  193
  196
  199
  203
  208
  213
  219
  225
  232
  231
  239
  247
  257
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  405
  424
  443
  464
  485
  508
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  754
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  848
  21
  24
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  547
  217
  223
  230
  238
  246
  254
  263
  273
  284
  286
  297
  310
  323
  337
  352
  367
  384
  401
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -91
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  598
  206
  210
  215
  221
  228
  235
  242
  250
  259
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  330
  344
  359
  375
  392
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  514
  538
  563
  590
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  550
  172
  159
  146
  133
  120
  107
  95
  83
  72
  59
  50
  42
  34
  27
  21
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lannett Company, Inc. develops, manufactures, packages, markets, and distributes generic versions of brand pharmaceutical products in the United States. It offers solid oral, extended release, topical, nasal, and oral solution finished dosage forms of drugs that address a range of therapeutic areas, as well as ophthalmic, patch, foam, buccal, sublingual, soft gel, and injectable dosages. The company provides its products for various medical indications comprising glaucoma, muscle relaxant, migraine, anesthetic, congestive heart failure, gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, thyroid deficiency, central nervous system, urinary, dryness of the mouth, gout, hypertension, and gallstone. It also manufactures active pharmaceutical ingredients. Lannett Company, Inc. markets its products under the Diamox, Fioricet, Fiorinal, Lanoxin, MiraLAX, Imdur, Levoxyl/Synthroid, Metadate CD, Concerta, Procardia, Prilosec, Ditropan, Protonix, Salagen, Dyazide, and Actigall brands. The company sells its pharmaceutical products to generic pharmaceutical distributors, drug wholesalers, chain drug retailers, private label distributors, mail-order pharmacies, other pharmaceutical manufacturers, managed care organizations, hospital buying groups, governmental entities, and health maintenance organizations. The company has supply and development agreements with JSP, Summit Bioscience LLC, HEC Pharm Group, and Pharma Pass II LLC. Lannett Company, Inc. was founded in 1942 and is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lannett (LCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.3
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 39.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -25%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 159.6%
Total Debt to Equity 191.7%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.4%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.1%
EBITDA Margin 26.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.5%
Operating Margin 22.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 11%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Effective Tax Rate 27.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

LCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $566 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lannett. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lannett. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for LCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lannett, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lannett.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 10% for Lannett.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lannett. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LCI are equal to 80.9%.

Life of production assets of 18.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lannett operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LCI is equal to 43.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $554 million for Lannett - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.584 million for Lannett is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lannett at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lannett Co., Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:LCI) : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 05:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Lannett Company, Inc. Is Having a Lousy Day   [May-03-17 01:07PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Biotech And Pharma Industry And Stock News   [12:46PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Perrigo Stock Sliding on DOJ Search   [08:53AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Lannett misses Street 3Q forecasts   [May-02-17 07:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Akorn Acquisition Talks Send Generic Drugmakers Into Orbit   [Apr-10-17 04:31PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Lannett Refuses to Go Lower   [Apr-03-17 12:14PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 3 Top Generic Drug Companies to Buy in 2017   [Mar-24-17 02:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Top Generic Drug Companies to Buy in 2017   [02:43PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Lannett Announces Addition To Management Team   [Feb-23-17 06:53AM  PR Newswire]
▶ FDA gives Lannett more time to make its case for ADHD drug   [Feb-22-17 11:25AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of LCI Financial statements of LCI Annual reports of LCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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