Intrinsic value of Lydall - LDL

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$50.50

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$50.50

 
Intrinsic value

$62.48

 
Up/down potential

+24%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of LDL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.00
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  567
  623
  682
  743
  807
  873
  942
  1,013
  1,088
  1,165
  1,246
  1,329
  1,416
  1,506
  1,600
  1,698
  1,800
  1,907
  2,018
  2,133
  2,254
  2,380
  2,512
  2,650
  2,794
  2,945
  3,102
  3,267
  3,440
  3,620
  3,810
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  537
  586
  638
  693
  749
  808
  868
  932
  998
  1,066
  1,131
  1,205
  1,281
  1,361
  1,445
  1,532
  1,622
  1,717
  1,815
  1,918
  2,025
  2,137
  2,254
  2,377
  2,505
  2,639
  2,779
  2,926
  3,080
  3,241
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  512
  537
  586
  638
  693
  749
  808
  868
  932
  998
  1,066
  1,131
  1,205
  1,281
  1,361
  1,445
  1,532
  1,622
  1,717
  1,815
  1,918
  2,025
  2,137
  2,254
  2,377
  2,505
  2,639
  2,779
  2,926
  3,080
  3,241
Operating income, $m
  55
  87
  95
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  156
  168
  180
  198
  211
  225
  239
  254
  269
  285
  301
  318
  337
  355
  375
  396
  417
  440
  463
  488
  514
  540
  569
EBITDA, $m
  75
  111
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  180
  193
  207
  221
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  378
  400
  422
  446
  470
  496
  522
  550
  580
  610
  642
  676
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  55
  82
  90
  98
  107
  116
  125
  135
  145
  155
  166
  183
  195
  207
  220
  233
  247
  261
  276
  291
  308
  325
  342
  361
  380
  400
  421
  444
  467
  491
  517
Tax expense, $m
  18
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
Net income, $m
  37
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  113
  121
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
  377

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  72
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  527
  500
  547
  596
  647
  701
  756
  813
  873
  935
  1,000
  1,067
  1,136
  1,209
  1,284
  1,363
  1,445
  1,530
  1,619
  1,712
  1,809
  1,910
  2,016
  2,127
  2,242
  2,363
  2,490
  2,622
  2,761
  2,906
  3,058
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  455
  500
  547
  596
  647
  701
  756
  813
  873
  935
  1,000
  1,067
  1,136
  1,209
  1,284
  1,363
  1,445
  1,530
  1,619
  1,712
  1,809
  1,910
  2,016
  2,127
  2,242
  2,363
  2,490
  2,622
  2,761
  2,906
  3,058
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.246
  1.246
  1.247
  1.247
  1.247
  1.245
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
  1.246
Average production assets, $m
  161
  177
  194
  211
  229
  248
  267
  288
  309
  331
  354
  377
  402
  428
  455
  482
  511
  542
  573
  606
  640
  676
  713
  753
  793
  836
  881
  928
  977
  1,028
  1,082
Working capital, $m
  166
  105
  115
  125
  136
  147
  158
  170
  183
  196
  209
  223
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  320
  339
  358
  379
  400
  422
  445
  469
  495
  521
  549
  578
  608
  640
Total debt, $m
  129
  153
  179
  207
  235
  264
  295
  327
  360
  395
  431
  468
  507
  547
  589
  633
  678
  726
  775
  827
  881
  937
  996
  1,057
  1,122
  1,189
  1,259
  1,333
  1,410
  1,491
  1,575
Total liabilities, $m
  254
  278
  304
  332
  360
  389
  420
  452
  485
  520
  556
  593
  632
  672
  714
  758
  803
  851
  900
  952
  1,006
  1,062
  1,121
  1,182
  1,247
  1,314
  1,384
  1,458
  1,535
  1,616
  1,700
Total equity, $m
  273
  222
  243
  265
  287
  311
  336
  361
  388
  415
  444
  474
  505
  537
  570
  605
  642
  679
  719
  760
  803
  848
  895
  944
  996
  1,049
  1,105
  1,164
  1,226
  1,290
  1,358
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  527
  500
  547
  597
  647
  700
  756
  813
  873
  935
  1,000
  1,067
  1,137
  1,209
  1,284
  1,363
  1,445
  1,530
  1,619
  1,712
  1,809
  1,910
  2,016
  2,126
  2,243
  2,363
  2,489
  2,622
  2,761
  2,906
  3,058
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.473
  0.690
  0.740
  0.780
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.442
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444
  0.444

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  37
  60
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  113
  121
  134
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
  377
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  84
  91
  99
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  152
  162
  171
  182
  194
  205
  218
  231
  244
  258
  273
  288
  304
  320
  338
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  460
  484
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
Cash from operations, $m
  70
  115
  81
  89
  96
  104
  113
  121
  130
  139
  149
  157
  168
  178
  190
  201
  214
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  298
  315
  332
  350
  368
  388
  409
  430
  452
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
Free cash flow, $m
  -108
  84
  47
  52
  57
  63
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  164
  173
  183
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  106
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -4
  109
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  121
  129
  136
  144
  153
  163
  172
  182
  193
  204
  215
  227
  240
  253
  266
  281
  296
  311
  328
  345
  363
  381
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  160
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  314
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  153
  48
  50
  52
  53
  54
  55
  54
  54
  53
  50
  48
  46
  43
  40
  37
  34
  30
  27
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Lydall, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets specialty engineered filtration media, industrial thermal insulating solutions, and automotive thermal and acoustical barriers for filtration/separation and thermal/acoustical applications worldwide. It operates through Performance Materials, Technical Nonwovens, Thermal/Acoustical Metals, and Thermal/Acoustical Fibers segments. The Performance Materials segment offers filtration media solutions for air, fluid power, and industrial applications, such as clean-space, commercial, HVAC, power generation, and industrial processes. This segment also provides non-woven veils, papers, mats, and specialty composites for the building products, appliances, and energy and industrial markets; and life sciences filtration products for biopharmaceutical pre-filtration and clarification, diagnostic and analytical testing, respiratory protection, water filtration, and high purity process filtration. The Technical Nonwovens segment offers non-woven felt media and filter bags for industrial air and liquid filtration applications. The Thermal/Acoustical Metals segment provides engineered products for the transportation sector to thermally shield sensitive components from high heat, improve exhaust gas treatment, and lower harmful emissions, as well as assist to reduce powertrain and road noise. Its products are used in the tunnel, fuel tank, rear muffler, and spare tire applications, as well as outer dash, powertrain, catalytic converter, turbo charger, and manifolds of cars, trucks, SUVs, heavy duty trucks, and recreational vehicles. The Thermal/Acoustical Fibers segment offers thermal and acoustical insulating solutions comprising organic and inorganic fiber composites for the automotive and truck markets. The company markets its products to original equipment manufacturers and tier-one suppliers through internal sales force and distribution network. Lydall, Inc. was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Manchester, Connecticut.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Lydall (LDL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.5
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 19%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 72
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 46.9%
Total Debt to Equity 47.3%
Interest Coverage 56
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital 11.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Return On Equity 14.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.1%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 9.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Net Profit Margin 6.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 32.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

LDL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the LDL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $567 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Lydall. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Lydall. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our LDL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for LDL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Lydall, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Lydall.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of LDL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for LDL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Lydall.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Lydall. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the LDL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for LDL are equal to 28.4%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Lydall operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for LDL is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $273 million for Lydall - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.707 million for Lydall is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Lydall at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Lydall to Report First Quarter 2017 Results on May 2, 2017   [Apr-20-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Lydall, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 12:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Lydall posts 4Q profit   [Feb-22-17 05:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Lydall to Report Fourth Quarter and Year Ended 2016 Results   [Feb-10-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lydall, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:LDL) : January 19, 2017   [Jan-19-17 10:58AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Lydall Completes Acquisition of Gutsche   [Jan-03-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Lydall, Inc. (LDL) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-09-16 11:03AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Lydall to Report Third Quarter 2016 Results   [Oct-19-16 03:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lydall Performance Materials Names New President   [Feb-15-16 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Lydall Names New Chief Financial Officer   [12:59PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 10-Q for Lydall, Inc.   [Aug-13  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Lydall, Inc.   [May-04  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of LDL Financial statements of LDL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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